The Kansas City Chiefs vs. Washington Football Team game looks a whole lot different now than it did while previewing the 2021 NFL season. We believed the Chiefs would be one of the dominating forces in the AFC. Conversely, Washington boasted one of the most talented defenses in football.
Instead, between an elite offense and atrocious defense, the Chiefs have competing forces fighting for supremacy. Washington’s defense is somehow almost as bad, despite playing only one top-10 offense in terms of efficiency. So, which disappointment comes out victorious on Sunday?
Kansas City Chiefs offense vs. Washington Football Team defense
This was supposed to be one of the juggernaut matchups of the season. This was one of the battles we had circled on our calendar before the year. Now, it’s a battle between the best offense in the league and nearly the worst defense.
Patrick Mahomes vs. Washington defense
Patrick Mahomes will always inherently be an advantage over whatever defense he faces. Despite his scattershot performance against Buffalo in the rain, he still ranks second in EPA/play and has the Chiefs’ offense rolling.
Meanwhile, Washington is sputtering on third down, ranking 31st at causing fourth downs in those situations. Despite having Jonathan Allen, Montez Sweat, and Chase Young, they’re 27th in sack rate, which is the same ranking as their INT rate.
If Washington’s linebackers and safeties can’t improve their game, Travis Kelce and company will devour them over the middle on Sunday afternoon. And Mahomes will be the one to pick them apart.
Advantage: Chiefs
Chiefs weapons vs. Washington defensive backs
This is another decidedly lopsided matchup, at least according to how they’ve performed to this point. It’ll forever be difficult to match against a team in possession of the most dynamic receiver in the NFL and the most talented tight end to boot.
Unfortunately for defenses, Mecole Hardman has finally become a consistent receiving weapon. He’s currently carrying the cleanest catch rate of Kansas City’s top three. A lower aDOT contributes to that, but he’s still been efficient.
Kendall Fuller and William Jackson III are playing fine football, and Kamren Curl appears to be a steal for the Football Team as a seventh-round selection from 2020. Bobby McCain, Landon Collins, and the linebackers are killing this football team, pun slightly intended.
Advantage: Chiefs
Chiefs offensive line vs. Washington front seven
Finally, we have something impressive to talk about! This is the one matchup in the Chiefs vs. Football Team matchup that piques the interest of the true football nerd. Overall, the Washington defensive front has disappointed compared to expectation, but they haven’t been “bad.”
Despite lacking sack production, they’re affecting quarterbacks. Allen, Young, and Daron Payne all have 18 total pressures, and Sweat has 16 — all ranking inside the top 40 league-wide. To put that in perspective, if we average each team to four defensive linemen, that’s 128 defensive linemen. That means each of Washington’s top-four rushers ranks in the 69th percentile for rushers in the league.
Chiefs OL relying on rookies, and it’s working
Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ offensive line is performing admirably, even while their playmaking quarterback meanders in the pocket to try and make plays. Mahomes sometimes runs into pressure, but we allow it because he can escape and make a play more often than not.
There is no sore spot on the offensive line. From left to right, these young men are, to steal a phrase from Lamar Jackson, “balling out of control.”
Creed Humphrey might already be the best center in the NFL as a rookie, and fellow rookie Trey Smith is mauling defensive linemen as well. Joe Thuney proved to be a solid pickup, and the tackles are surviving, despite Mahomes’ somewhat inconsistent drop depth.
Remember, the entire right side of that offensive line is effectively rookies, given right tackle Lucas Niang is playing in his first NFL season after opting out of 2020.
Watching Payne and Allen against Humphrey is the steel-on-steel matchup, but the rest of the line here is iron sharpening iron. I won’t be taking my eyes off this, even with Patty running around like a mad man slinging the pill.
This one is too close to call.
Advantage: Push
Kansas City Chiefs defense vs. Washington Football Team offense
I’ve written a few times before about stoppable forces meeting moveable objects, but this might wear the crown for that trope. For as dominant as the Chiefs’ offense is, their defense is the direct inverse. It’s a truly horrendous product with no reinforcements in sight because Kansas City has remained relatively healthy. Meanwhile, Washington’s offense isn’t as statistically poor as expected. However, it still has at least one major flaw.
Taylor Heinicke vs. Chiefs defense
Whew, buddy. What a battle of the titans we have here. I can only explain how bad the Chiefs’ defense is in so many ways, so I’ll spare you that part.
Taylor Heinicke hasn’t played as poorly as I anticipated, but his playmaking attitude and his lack of arm talent really do not mix. He’s thrown some abhorrent interceptions so far in 2021, including 2 against a good Saints defense this past week.
Still, this Kansas City defense is so disheartening that even an undrafted backup quarterback will probably achieve success more often than not against them.
Advantage: Football Team
Washington weapons vs. Chiefs defensive backs
For the sake of transparency, when I saw a “D. Carter” in the box score this past week for Washington, I had to go to the roster and find out who it was. With injuries to Logan Thomas, Cam Sims, Curtis Samuel, and rookie Dyami Brown, the Football Team dug deep for DeAndre Carter, who ended up as the team’s second-leading receiver in Week 5.
Still, Terry McLaurin is healthy, and that’s all that matters in this matchup at the end of the day. It’s that ugly in Kansas City.
Advantage: Washington
Washington offensive line vs. Chiefs front seven
This is the strongest unit on the Football Team’s… football team… right now. At least, it’s the strongest relative to expectation. Losing Samuel Cosmi is significant given his play thus far as a rookie. However, with how the rest of the line has performed, they should be able to weather the loss.
The Chiefs’ pass rush really has nothing for Washington. Quite frankly, they don’t have anything in the front seven that should scare the Football Team at all. The defensive line hasn’t shown up, and the linebacker play has been suboptimal at best and terrible at worst.
Advantage: Washington
Betting line and game prediction
The Chiefs vs. Football Team line is currently favoring the Chiefs by 7 points. Considering Washington is currently being outscored by nearly a touchdown per game in 2021, this seems just a tad low.
Even with the potential for the Chiefs’ defense to be the worst of the decade, if Washington’s defense doesn’t start playing assignment-sound football in the secondary, this Chiefs offense will put up a 40-burger on them.
I desperately want this Washington defense to turn it around, but nothing I’ve seen has convinced me they can.
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 38, Washington Football Team 27