A rematch of the 2019 AFC title game is set for Sunday afternoon in Nashville. The two-time defending conference champion Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) face the AFC South-leading Tennessee Titans (4-2). The Titans have won four of their last five, including an instant classic against the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are in search of their first winning streak of the season and entered Week 7 as the AFC’s eighth seed. Let’s dive into this week’s Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans matchup.
Kansas City Chiefs offense vs. Tennessee Titans defense
The reports of the Chiefs’ demise have been greatly exaggerated. Yes, there are real issues on defense (more on that later), but Kansas City’s offense is still humming along. The Chiefs lead the NFL in first downs (27.5 per game) and average more points (30.8), yards (433.5), and yards per play (6.4) than they did in 2020. Turnovers are the issue. They have an NFL-most 14 giveaways after committing just 16 turnovers all of last year.
The Chiefs catch a bit of a break this week. As bad as Kansas City is at hanging onto the ball, Tennessee is equally bad at taking it away. The Titans’ 5 forced turnovers are the third-fewest among teams that haven’t had their bye. That’s a big reason why Tennessee ranks 24th in scoring defense (26.8). But it’s not the only reason. They are also 27th in yards-per-play allowed (6.1).
Patrick Mahomes vs. Titans defense
The 2018 league MVP has always teetered between daring and reckless with his play. But Patrick Mahomes’ eye-opening interception tally through six games (8) needs a bit of context. He’s been victimized by drops on at least 3 of them, although his second of 2 picks Sunday against the Washington Football Team was inexcusable. Still, he has not played poorly this year — far from it. He’s on pace to throw more than 50 touchdowns, and his QBR (70.4) ranks second in the NFL.
[bet-promo id=”174860″ ]Good luck finding any silver lining with the Titans’ pass defense. It’s almost all bleak. Their secondary is the walking wounded. And Tennessee wasn’t particularly good against the pass before the injuries hit. The Titans are 27th in yards per pass allowed (7.8), 24th in pass defense (276.3), 21st in interception rate (1.9%), and 22nd in passer rating against (101.9). The Titans aren’t terrible on third downs (40.5%), but they also aren’t great.
Advantage: Chiefs
Chiefs weapons vs. Titans defensive backs
Only three players entered Week 7 averaging more receiving yards per game than Tyreek Hill (98.7): Davante Adams, Deebo Samuel, and Cooper Kupp. Star tight end Travis Kelce survived a brief injury scare against Washington but returned and put together a strong game (8 catches, 99 yards).
Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire will miss at least the next two weeks with a sprained MCL. Edwards-Helaire was off to a great start to the season, rushing for 304 yards on 65 carries. Darrel Williams got the vast majority of running back snaps with CEH out but managed just 3 yards per carry against WFT.
Things are not good at cornerback for the Titans. Two starters are now on injured reserve — Kristian Fulton (out at least two more games with a hamstring injury) and rookie first-round pick Caleb Farley (who suffered a season-ending knee injury against the Bills). Jackrabbit Jenkins and Elijah Molden seem to be the next two up, while Chris Jackson and Breon Borders are also in the mix for playing time. Safety Amani Hooker played 66 snaps in his first game back off of IR.
Advantage: Chiefs
Chiefs offensive line vs. Titans defensive front
Kansas City’s new-look O-line — Orlando Brown, Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, and Lucas Niang, from left to right — has so far lived up to the hype. They have a year-over-year improvement in yards per carry (4.9 in 2021), rushing offense (125 yards per game), and goal-to-go conversions (87.5%) and are still top-10 in sack rate (4.1%). The Chiefs held Washington’s edge-rushing duo of Chase Young and Montez Sweat to 1 sack and 2 quarterback hits in Week 6.
Defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons was the toast of Nashville Monday night after blowing up Josh Allen’s QB sneak on fourth-and-1 to preserve the Titans’ 34-31 victory over the Bills. What made it all the more impressive — that was the 69th snap Simmons logged that night, a huge number for an interior defensive lineman.
Simmons and Harold Landry (6.5 sacks, 7 tackles for loss, 12 QB hits) are the playmakers on a defense that ranks 19th in sack rate (6.1%). Big free-agent acquisition Bud Dupree (0 sacks in three games) has been a big disappointment. Inside linebacker Jayon Brown is out for at least another week with a knee injury.
Advantage: Chiefs
Tennessee Titans offense vs. Kansas City Chiefs defense
Can a running back be the league MVP in today’s NFL? If anyone deserves consideration, it’s Derrick Henry, who won his sixth offensive player of the week award after going for 143 yards and 3 touchdowns in Monday’s win over the Bills. He’s just the third player in NFL history with at least 750 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns in his team’s first six games of a season. The gap between Henry (who’s first in rushing yards through six weeks) and Cleveland’s Nick Chubb (who’s second with 523) is basically the same between Chubb and Alexander Mattison (who’s 28th).
It’ll be an interesting matchup against a Chiefs defense that has not allowed a running back to go over 100 yards since Melvin Gordon went for a buck-31 in Week 13 of the 2020 season. But that’s one of few bright spots for a Chiefs defense that has been plain terrible through six weeks. Sunday’s 38-13 win over the Washington Football Team marked the first time in 2021 Kansas City held an opponent under 29 points. Furthermore, the Chiefs are dead last in yards allowed per play (6.7).
Ryan Tannehill vs. Chiefs defense
Statistically, this has been the worst season of Ryan Tannehill’s three years in Nashville. His completion percentage (63.4%), touchdown rate (3.0%), yards-per-attempt average (7.3), passer rating (86.8), and sacks taken per game (3.3) have never been worse with the Titans. His 6 touchdown passes through Monday’s game were second-fewest to only Daniel Jones among quarterbacks who have started six contests.
The good news for Tannehill? Everybody can move the ball against the Chiefs. Well, everyone except Taylor Heinicke. Josh Allen roasted the Chiefs for 315 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jalen Hurts had a career day against KC. Lamar Jackson went for 239 yards with his arm and another 107 with his legs. It’s no wonder, then, that the Chiefs rank 30th in yards allowed per pass (8.1).
Advantage: Tannehill
Titans weapons vs. Chiefs defensive backs
We could write another 1,000 words on Henry, who accounts for an absurd 40% of Tennessee’s 384.7 yards per game. But then we wouldn’t have room to wonder if Julio Jones will ever be right physically this year. The Titans envisioned an unstoppable one-two punch with A.J. Brown and Jones, but the latter has missed parts or all of the last four games with a hamstring injury. Jones has just 15 catches for 263 yards and no touchdowns in 185 snaps this year. Brown has had injuries issues of his own, and his stat line reflects it (17 catches for 221 yards, 1 touchdown, and a career-low 50% catch rate).
If the Chiefs fall short of their goals in 2021, it almost certainly will be because of their secondary. It might be the worst in football, particularly with safety Daniel Sorensen playing so poorly he got benched for Juan Thornhill against WFT. The move was warranted. Sorensen has a ghastly 150.5 passer rating against this year. L’Jarius Sneed has surrendered 3 touchdowns and 8.4 yards per target.
Advantage: Titans
Titans offensive line vs. Chiefs defensive front
Taylor Lewan’s injury Monday night looked far worse than it actually was. After Lewan suffered a scary head/neck injury, medics strapped him to a board and carted him off. But when Lewan flashed the thumbs up, relief washed over Tennessee’s home crowd. He avoided the worst. Still, Lewan’s been diagnosed with a concussion and is unlikely to play Sunday.
If he doesn’t, Kendall Lamm will get the nod at left tackle on a line that could hardly use any more bad news. Tennessee’s sack rate (9.9%) is fifth-worst in football. And even the Titans’ run stats — third in yards per game (164.2) and fifth in yards per carry (5.1) — are inflated by Henry touchdown runs of 60 and 76 yards.
As for the Chiefs, a largely invisible pass rush has done the team’s defensive backs no favors. Michael Danna (3 sacks, 7 QB hits) has given Kansas City about all one could expect from a fifth-round pick. But the big names have played small. Chris Jones has missed the last two games with a wrist injury, but he had only 2 sacks and 3 tackles for loss before. Frank Clark has more arrests in 2021 than sacks.
Advantage: Push
Betting line and game prediction
We’re torn here — we think the Chiefs are the better team, and the metrics agree. Kansas City has the edge in DVOA (14th to 23rd), point differential, and yards differential. But the Chiefs are also horrendous against the spread. Let’s split the difference here and take the 5.5 points.
Prediction: Chiefs 35, Titans 31