The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the least-dominant Super Bowl teams of this century. Since 2000, only four Super Bowl teams have a worse point differential. Yet, at every point of this season, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have found a way in clutch situations, one-score games, etc.
The Philadelphia Eagles absolutely destroyed the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship and have one of the most complete and talented rosters in the entire league. The sky is the limit for this team, and it all starts on Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Chiefs -1.5 - Moneyline
Chiefs (-120); Eagles (+100) - Over/Under
48.5 total points - Game Time
6:30 p.m. ET - Location
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
Chiefs vs. Eagles Preview and Prediction
According to TruMedia, the Chiefs are 12-0 in one-score games (-8 to +8) this season, one of just seven teams since 2000 to be undefeated in such situations. As far as Mahomes is concerned, he ranks second in EPA (expected points added) per dropback in one-score situations, behind only Peyton Manning. If this game ends up in a close-game situation, it’s clear which team has the advantage.
Philadelphia’s defense has been dominant this season, ranking second in EPA, success rate, first in explosive passing rate allowed, seventh in explosive rushing rate allowed, and seventh in pressure rate. There are only six games this season where they performed below average, with only two of them coming in the second half of the season (against the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Rams).
Against Baltimore, they still managed to win 24-19 and held the Ravens to one of their worst offensive outputs of the season. This game saw zero turnovers on either side and the Ravens were still able to put up an above-average performance despite Lamar Jackson getting pressured on 56.8% of his dropbacks.
Despite this, the Ravens went 8-of-16 for 158 yards and a touchdown plus five scrambles for 74 rushing yards under pressure. The key to beating this Eagles’ defense is to be calm under pressure and have the ability to scramble/create when things get tough.
This season, the Eagles’ defense drops from second in overall EPA to 24th on plays where the quarterback scrambles. Furthermore, the Eagles are No. 1 in defensive EPA on plays inside the pocket versus 22nd on plays outside of the pocket.
This bodes well for the Chiefs as Mahomes ranks third among quarterbacks in EPA per dropback when scrambling, behind Matthew Stafford and Tua Tagovailoa, who have both scrambled on less than 2% of their dropbacks. Since 2000, Mahomes ranks sixth in EPA per dropback on scrambles and eighth in sack rate.
As for the Chiefs, defensively, they will need to lean on their strong run defense to stop this potent Eagles offense. Unsurprisingly, the Eagles are pound-for-pound more efficient when passing than rushing. They average about double the EPA and a 5% higher success rate. But this is the case for every team.
Unfortunately for the Chiefs’ defense, even in situations where the rushing game isn’t going well, the Eagles offense has been able to lean on the passing offense and do well. The Eagles haven’t faced many negative game-script situations (second-best 7.98%), but when they do, they perform much better than the average team.
Kansas City ranks fourth in explosive rushing rate allowed, 12th in defensive EPA in likely rushing situations, and eighth in defensive rushing success rate on first and second downs. The first two downs are absolutely imperative for the Kanas City defense. On 3rd-and-shorts, the Eagles are 0.116 EPA above league average. This falls to 0.084 on 3rd-and-mediums and just 0.056 EPA per play above average on 3rd-and-longs.
Furthermore, the Eagles are 25th in offensive EPA under pressure. Even worse, they drop to 28th in EPA under pressure on third downs. If the Chiefs’ defense can limit Saquon Barkley’s explosive rushes and consistently force the Eagles into 3rd-and-long situations where the Chiefs’ pass-rushers can tee off, they will have great success.
This gets exacerbated by the fact that the Chiefs’ defensive line matches up extremely well with the Eagles’ offensive line. The Eagles’ interior offensive line is the clear weak point; this has shown up in all of the games where they struggled.
The New York Giants with Dexter Lawrence II, the Rams with Kobie Turner, etc., had great success against this interior. Chris Jones is better than any interior defensive lineman they have faced to this point.
Overall, I think the Chiefs have the advantage here. They have the recipe on both offense and defense to defeat the Eagles plus a clear coaching and experience advantage. Pairing this with the fact that they are also one of the greatest teams in NFL history in high-leverage situations, I think the Chiefs pull off the three-peat.
My pick: Chiefs ML (-120); Chiefs -1.5 (-110)