The Kansas City Chiefs playoff scenarios for Week 18 have become somewhat convoluted. With the cancelation of the game between the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills, the NFL has decided to separate home-field advantage and the first-round bye.
Therefore, in this article, we will examine the Chiefs’ playoff scenarios for the various different scenarios that could occur in the final week of the 2022 NFL schedule.
Update Jan. 7, 7:05 p.m. ET: Chiefs Clinch First-Round Bye
The Chiefs’ victory over the Las Vegas Raiders means they will have a bye in Wild Card Weekend. The matter of home-field advantage is still to be worked out. If the Bills lose to the Patriots, the Chiefs will have home-field advantage as well as the bye.
If the Bills beat the Patriots, then a game between the Chiefs and Bills in the AFC Championship Game would be hosted at a neutral site. However, if the Chiefs face any other AFC team in the Championship Game, they will host it at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Bills defeated the Patriots 35-23, meaning that an AFC Championship Game between Buffalo and Kansas City will be played at a neutral site.
Chiefs Playoff Scenarios To Watch for in Week 18
The cancelation of the game between the Bills and Bengals has left the NFL standings looking a little different, with two teams having played 16 games and the rest playing Week 17. Based on winning percentage, the Chiefs sit atop the AFC entering Week 18 with a chance to clinch a first-round bye or both a first-round bye and home-field advantage.
With the Chiefs being atop the AFC because of the cancelation, the NFL has put in place a situation where the Chiefs have two different clinching scenarios. Kansas City can clinch the first-round bye by simply matching or bettering the result of the Bills.
Therefore, a win on Saturday guarantees the Chiefs a first-round bye. However, if they fail to win, they will have to wait for the results of the Bills game to see if they will play on Wild Card Weekend.
Kansas City will clinch just the first-round bye in the following scenarios:
- The Chiefs win.
- The Chiefs tie and the Bills tie.
- Both the Chiefs and Bills lose.
If the Chiefs and Bills both have the same result in Week 18, then an AFC Championship Game between the two sides would be played at a neutral site. However, if the Chiefs better the result of the Bills, they will clinch both the first-round bye and home-field advantage. If both the Chiefs and Bills lose, while the Bengals win against the Baltimore Ravens, then an AFC Championship Game between the Chiefs and Bengals would be played at a neutral site.
Kansas City will clinch both a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the following scenarios:
- The Chiefs win and the Bills fail to win.
- The Chiefs tie and the Bills lose.
What Are the Chiefs’ Chances of Clinching the #1 Seed?
According to FiveThirtyEight, the Chiefs have an 82% chance of clinching the first-round bye this week. The Chiefs are nine-point favorites over the Raiders, so the expectation is that they will win and clinch at least the first-round bye on Saturday. The rest would then be dependent on the Bills’ result, who are also favorites, laying seven points against the New England Patriots.