The Kansas City Chiefs‘ playoff chances still remain high despite a run that has seen them lose four of their last five. The Chiefs’ playoff scenarios very much still put control of their destiny in their own hands. Can Kansas City close out a playoff spot in Week 17, or will they have to wait until Week 18 to clinch a postseason spot or the division?
Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Chances | Week 17 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 31 at 7:40 a.m. before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
The Kansas City Chiefs have won the AFC West and are locked into the No. 3 seed. They will host the No. 6 seed in the AFC on Wild Card Weekend.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Texans (9-7) defeated Titans (5-11)
Jaguars (9-7) defeated Panthers (2-14)
Colts (9-7) defeated Raiders (7-9)
Bills (10-6) defeated Patriots (4-12)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Chiefs (10-6) defeated Bengals (8-8)
Broncos (8-8) defeated Chargers (5-11)
Steelers (9-7) defeated Seahawks (8-8)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Chiefs entering Week 17. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Kansas City Chiefs’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios Entering Week 17?
Simulations of PFN’s Playoff Predictor demonstrate that the Chiefs have just under a 95% chance of clinching the division and a 96% chance of making the postseason. There were just a handful of scenarios where the Chiefs missed out on the division but still made the playoffs this season.
The reason for that is if the Chiefs win either of their final two games, they have clinched the AFC West. Kansas City has a two-game lead over both the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders with two games to play. Therefore, one win shuts the door on both challengers.
Similarly, if the Chiefs fail to win another game, but neither the Broncos nor Raiders go 2-0, they will win the division. The Chiefs finish with games against the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers, so they will be quite confident they can win one of those against Jake Browning and then Easton Stick at QB.
The problem for the Chiefs is that if they do lose both games and one of the Broncos or Raiders goes a perfect 2-0 down the stretch, the NFL playoff tiebreakers will not fall in their favor. Kansas City has lost one game against both the Broncos and Raiders, so if they lose to the Chiefs, they will be 3-3 in the division.
Meanwhile, the Raiders are 3-2 in the division entering Week 17, and the Broncos are 2-2. Whichever of them were to go 2-0 would finish with a superior division record to the Chiefs at 4-2. As that is the second tiebreaker after the head-to-head record, the 2-0 finisher would take the crown for the first time in eight years.
Can the Chiefs Still Get an AFC Wild Card Spot?
For the Chiefs to even be in the Wild Card picture, they would have to go 0-2 down the stretch. That means they would finish at 9-8, so that is the mark we have to look at others achieving.
The Browns have already surpassed that and have a playoff spot clinched. The Bills are already 9-6 and have beaten the Chiefs in Week 14. In a two-team tiebreaker, the Bills would have the advantage, but Kansas City would have a superior conference record in a multi-team tiebreaker.
MORE: Kansas City Chiefs Depth Chart
There are five teams currently at 8-7: the Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Cincinnati Bengals. The Chiefs would need no more than one of those five teams, or the Bills to get to 10 wins, first and foremost.
In the event of a tie at 9-8, the Chiefs have beaten the Jaguars and would have lost to the Bengals in Week 17 but have not faced the Steelers, Colts, or Texans this season. Kansas City would also finish at 7-5 in terms of their conference record, which can not be surpassed by any of those teams if they get to just nine wins.
Therefore, if the Chiefs miss out on the division, they need a lot of things to shake out in their favor. They cannot see two more teams get to 10 wins or be left in a straight tiebreaker with the Bills or Bengals, but a two-team tie with the Jaguars would work out in their favor.
The Colts and Steelers could conceivably still get to a 7-5 record, which would send us into the “record against common opponents,” “Strength of Victory,” and potentially into the “Strength of Schedule” tiebreakers to separate the teams.
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