While the Kansas City Chiefs are a virtual lock to make the playoffs, back-to-back losses have created a few obstacles on the club’s path to the postseason. Sitting at 8-5, Patrick Mahomes and Co. still have a shot at the AFC’s No. 1 seed — but the Denver Broncos have started to make things interesting in the AFC West.
Let’s examine Kansas City’s playoff chances with the help of PFN’s free NFL playoff predictor. What needs to happen for the Chiefs in Week 15?
Chiefs Playoff Chances | Week 15 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 17 at 9:30 a.m. ET before the Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Sunday Night Football in Week 15, the Chiefs are the No. 3 seed in the AFC.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Chiefs (9-5) defeated Patriots (3-11)
Dolphins (10-4) defeated Jets (5-9)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Bills (8-6) defeated Cowboys (10-4)
Sunday Night Football Update
Ravens (11-3) defeated Jaguars (8-6)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Chiefs entering Week 15. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
Kansas City Chiefs’ Playoff Scenarios Entering Week 15
Defeats to the Green Bay Packers and Buffalo Bills in Weeks 13 and 14 have lowered Kansas City’s chances to win the AFC West — but not by much. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) still thinks the Chiefs are 93.1% likely to walk away with the division crown and 98.8% likely to make the playoffs in some capacity.
The Broncos, winners of five of their last seven, are Kansas City’s most significant threat in the AFC West. But their chances of overtaking the Chiefs are minimal after losing to the Detroit Lions on Saturday night.
Theoretically, the Chiefs could clinch the AFC West as soon as Week 16. Kansas City would have a three-game lead with two games left if they go 2-0 over the next two weeks while the Broncos go 0-2.
Of course, things could get more complicated if the Chiefs and the Broncos end up with identical records. The clubs have split their season series, meaning they’d need to rely on NFL playoff tiebreakers like division record, record against common opponents, and conference record to determine a winner.
As things stand, Kansas City is 3-1 within the AFC West, while Denver is 2-2. The Chiefs play the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers once each down the stretch, while the Broncos play Los Angeles twice and Las Vegas once.
Can the Chiefs Still Land the AFC’s No. 1 Seed?
Kansas City has grabbed the AFC’s No. 1 seed three times with Mahomes under center (2018, 2020, 2022) and won the Super Bowl twice in those three seasons.
This year, Andy Reid’s team might have to play a road game in the playoffs, because their odds of securing the top seed — and the home-field advantage and first-round playoff bye that comes with it — have shrunk significantly over the last two weeks.
MORE: Kansas City Chiefs Depth Chart
K.C. has a 16% of earning the No. 1 seed entering Week 13.
While that’s the second-best mark in the conference, the Chiefs are well behind the Baltimore Ravens at 64%.
Baltimore already has 10 wins, two more than Kansas City, while the two clubs will not face each other this season. As such, the Chiefs must match the Ravens’ record and finish with a better mark within the conference. Baltimore is currently 6-3 in the AFC; K.C. is 6-2.
Kansas City will also need to win one more game than the 9-4 Miami Dolphins down the stretch to secure the top seed, but they won’t need to worry about conference record with Miami. The Chiefs already defeated the Dolphins in Week 9, giving them a head-to-head tiebreaker.
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