The Kansas City Chiefs‘ fantasy outlook revolves around the struggles of Patrick Mahomes, while the New England Patriots‘ preview takes a look at their WR1 role for fantasy football.
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
- Spread: Chiefs -9.5
- Total: 37
- Chiefs implied points: 23.3
- Patriots implied points: 13.8
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes: If you’re not willing to ride out these struggles, then you’re a fantasy brat.
You heard me, a brat. Mahomes is as capable as anyone of breaking open a fantasy matchup, so I’m not willing to listen to anyone who is complaining about him.
People complain when they want change or believe there is an action that can fix their problem, right? If you complain about the movie your date picks, you’re looking for something different. If you complain at a restaurant about your entree, you’re hoping they either comp the dish or offer to cater to what you want to be changed.
There is no change or action to take here. You play Patrick Mahomes.
- No better than QB15 in three of four games
- No 30-yard completions in four of five games
- Under 6.5 yards per pass in five of six games
Don’t care. There is literally nothing you can do that would make sense, so why waste brain power on it? Over 71% of yards against the Patriots come through the air (seventh-highest rate), and Mahomes is pacing for a career year in rushing yards.
It’s playoff time, and there are plenty of stressful decisions to make. Don’t add to that list unnecessarily.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco: Kansas City’s star back sat out last week with a shoulder contusion and those close to the team reported shortly after he was ruled out that the team would not put Pacheco on IR.
That’s obviously good news, but the fact that the question was being asked is concerning. The Chiefs have their eyes on peaking in January, making it possible that we see a cautious approach.
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The Patriots are the top per-carry run defense in the NFL, though I’m not sure the matchup matters in a massive way. Pacheco has faced a pair of top-10 per-carry defenses this season, and he has returned top-13 value at the position in both of those instances.
If Pacheco is active, you’re playing him and assuming that a team with the long game in mind wouldn’t roll him out there if he’s not right.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: With Pacheco sitting, CEH held a slim 32-30 snap edge over Jerick McKinnon as he dominated the early-down usage and gave up snaps in passing situations as expected.
I expect the game script to be more favorable for the run game in Kansas City this week than last, so sign me up for the “over” on the 13 touches we got from CEH last week in his first start of the season. The Patriots, however, do own the top per-carry run defense in the league, thus tempering the projectable yardage upside.
He’s one of three running backs in this game that carry risk but should be considered viable Flex plays. The lack of work in the passing game is a concern, but I have him holding more scoring equity than the other RBs in this game.
Jerick McKinnon: As expected, it was McKinnon with the edge in routes run over Edwards-Helaire (18-15), and he even managed to rush for a seven-yard score last week.
The rushing score isn’t something that I’m reading into, just like a CEH touchdown catch wouldn’t change my opinion of how these backs are most often used. McKinnon played 16 of the 17 running back snaps on third down, a clear signal that his role resides in the passing game.
I actually think McKinnon’s role helps Mahomes’ fantasy stock more than it does for himself. He’s a PPR Flex option that ranks just ahead of that Chase Brown/Tyjae Spear tier at the position.
Rhamondre Stevenson: A high ankle sprain sidelined Stevenson last week, and with that usually requiring multiple weeks to recover, I think we are safe to operate under the assumption that he misses this game, if not the rest of the season.
Ezekiel Elliott: We all assumed he would hold the lead role in Week 14, but did we really think he’d total 140 yards and handle 29 of 30 RB touches?
I have my questions about his efficiency, consistency, and ability, but that level of volume is tough to find this time of year. Since the Week 11 bye, Patriots RBs have seen 28.2% of the targets, and if ‘Zeke is essentially going to assume all of the backfield usage, that puts him on the RB2 radar.
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I’ve dialed back his projection a bit based on this matchup and my lack of confidence in Elliott when it comes to the ability to create yardage beyond what is blocked, but even I can’t take him out of strong Flex play territory.
Wide Receivers
Rashee Rice: If you’ve been rolling with the PFN crew through this fantasy season (podcast, written content, live streams, etc.), then you have no questions about Rice and have likely skipped right past this portion of this essay.
Why wouldn’t you? He’s a star and a lineup lock.
The rookie has distanced himself from his teammates as the clear-cut WR1 in this offense and has scored six times this season, despite limited work until recently.
The Chiefs have been rewarded for giving him more leeway (seven-plus catches in three straight games) and with the confidence of Mahomes, there is nothing that Rice has done over the past month that should be considered flukey.
With multiple red-zone looks in three straight games, there aren’t any questions to ask about Rice. You’re playing him and loving it.
Demario Douglas: The slot specialist missed last week (concussion), but don’t forget about him. Douglas was targeted on 40.9% of his routes in Week 12 and has caught at least five balls in four straight games (24.2% target share in those games).
It goes without saying that the upside is capped, but this time of year opens managers up to some creativity. Douglas is a great option to roster (and potentially Flex) for highly seeded teams that have star power capable of doing the heavy lifting.
If you’re looking for a week-winner, look elsewhere. If you want a stable source of PPR production, monitor Douglas’ practice habits as he looks to return to action.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: The former Steeler lit up his previous employer for 90 yards last week – his second game this season with 35-plus receiving yards. Did QB Bailey Zappe unlock something?
I don’t think so, and if Douglas returns to action, we are talking about fewer looks in a pass game that I still don’t trust. If Douglas misses another game, Smith-Schuster shifts to the very low end of Flex consideration in full-PPR leagues.
The Chiefs are a top-five defense in terms of yards per pass and missed tackles per game – two traits that have me looking elsewhere to fill my Flex position with my season on the line.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce: “The play that wasn’t” got all of the attention last week, but how about Kelce seeing double-digit targets for the first time since mid-October? Or what about him posting three straight games with at least 80 receiving yards for the first time since last November?
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Worry about Kelce not scoring in five of his past six games if you want, but understand that you have a true difference-maker who can single-handedly dictate your matchup. I’m not worried about the “Belichick takes away your best option” narrative at all. This Chiefs team needs to get rolling, and their future Hall of Fame tight end is their best way to right the ship.
Hunter Henry: It’s important to note that the expectation is not for Henry to turn three targets into two touchdowns, but the returns last week under Bailey Zappe were at least encouraging.
More important, for me, was the fact that Zappe looked good in the short passing game (10 of 11 when throwing to Ezekiel Elliott or Henry per the Week 15 Cheat Sheet) and that Henry ran a route on 78.1% of dropbacks.
Expecting consistency from any waiver wire TE is asking a lot, so I’m happy to chase touchdowns for a player who has scored on 11.5% of his career receptions and is playing on a team that figures to be trailing plenty this week (and Week 17 in Buffalo).
Betting on this offense is terrifying, but sometimes you have to be comfortable being uncomfortable to ship a fantasy league! Henry is my TE14 and my top streaming option, assuming that Baltimore’s Isaiah Likely is already rostered.
Should You Start Taysom Hill or Hunter Henry?
The two touchdowns from Henry last week were encouraging, but his reliance on scores is concerning. The Patriots carry very little scoring equity this week, so I’m happy to go with Hill, assuming he clears all needed health obstacles.
In this Derek Carr-led offense, Hill’s do-everything role is simply a cheat code at the tight end position. Hill is a unique option, while Henry is one of a dozen tight ends that need a score to matter.
Should You Start Chiefs D/ST or Saints D/ST?
Both of these defenses have the potential to make a major difference in fantasy matchups this week, but if forced to pick one, give me the Chiefs. We’ve seen them clear 10 fantasy points on five occasions this season, and if this offense can get on track even a little bit, this underwhelming Patriots offense will be forced into an aggressive approach.
Kansas City has nine games with at least three sacks this season, a trend I like to continue, and they pin their ears back in this spot.
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