Every sportsbook has this projected as the highest-scoring game of the week, and fantasy football managers are salivating. The Minnesota Vikings’ fantasy outlook takes a look at their WR2 role, and the Kansas City Chiefs’ fantasy preview details their breakout running back.
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Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings
- Spread: Chiefs -5
- Total: 53
- Chiefs implied points: 29
- Vikings implied points: 24
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes: The reigning MVP was anything but sharp on Sunday night against the New York Jets (203 pass yards with one score and two interceptions), but there is nothing to worry about here, and he sits atop my QB ranks for Week 5.
That touchdown pass last week made him the fastest to 200 career TD tosses in NFL history, though it isn’t his right arm that has me feeling great about his status moving forward. Mahomes ranks second at the position in rushing yards (pace: 654), elevating what is already a high projectable floor. Read nothing into the bizarre Week 4 performance and use your mental energy elsewhere.
Kirk Cousins: The Minnesota Vikings hardly had the ball last weekend against the Carolina Panthers, but Cousins was able to throw multiple touchdown passes for a fifth straight game as he continues to offer consistent per-pass production.
Pass count shouldn’t be an issue this week against a high-scoring Chiefs team in a game with a projected total that sits at 53. Cousins was a top-10 fantasy QB in each of the first three weeks, and I have him returning to that form.
Now, I will admit to being impressed with the Chiefs’ defense (top-six in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and points allowed), but the optionality of this offense with Justin Jefferson leading the way puts Cousins in a position to succeed.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco: His showing out last week wasn’t a fluke; it was only a matter of time. He has seen his carry count increase each week this season and has three plays of 30+ yards over the past three weeks. His involvement in the pass game has taken a nice step forward (five more routes run than Jerick McKinnon last week), and with no receiver stepping up, Pacheco’s role is critical to the success of this offense.
Pacheco’s weekly finishes this season, per the Week 5 Cheat Sheet:
- Week 1: 35th
- Week 2: 25th
- Week 3: 11th
- Week 4: 7th
That’s a trend that I am buying. As long as Mahomes is leading this offense to the red zone four times a game, something he has done throughout his career, Pacheco’s role and running style make him a strong RB2 each and every week.
Jerick McKinnon: You could argue that the Chiefs are playing the long game with McKinnon like they did last season, waiting to unleash him until the second half of the season.
Sure, that could happen, but for right now, he doesn’t matter. He hasn’t finished better than RB50 in three of four weeks and has just 13 touches on his 2023 résumé. As of now, he isn’t a threat to Pacheco, nor does he need to be rostered in standard-sized fantasy leagues.
Alexander Mattison: After a pair of inefficient efforts to open the season, he is averaging 94 rush yards per game (5.1 yards per carry) and looks like a feature back that you can count on weekly.
The concern is his versatility — or lack thereof. After averaging 5.7 targets through three games without Cam Akers active, Mattison earned just one look in the passing game against the Panthers in Week 4. He doesn’t rely on targets to drive his fantasy value, though it helped stabilize his floor early this season. There is more risk moving forward than there was previously, but the 15-18 carry role appears safe and makes him a top-20 option for me this week.
Cam Akers: In his team debut, Akers looked just fine (seven touches for 51 games) and filled a role that could turn into something fantasy managers consider with time. Against the Panthers, he ran a route on half of his snaps (Mattison: 30.3%), potentially putting him in a spot to carve out a past Kareem Hunt-ish role that holds value in a PPR setting.
He’s nowhere near lineups yet, and I’m not sure he even needs to be rostered at this moment in time, though his usage is certainly something I’ll be tracking.
Wide Receivers
Rashee Rice: For the third time in four weeks, Rice saw at least five targets, but also, for the third time in four weeks, he failed to reach 35 receiving yards. His involvement is the most stable among the receivers in this offense, and that has him atop this WR room in my Week 5 ranks.
That said, you don’t need to worry about him. The Chiefs don’t have a receiver inside of the top 45 at the position in receptions, speaking to the limited projectable upside that we can assign any of the non-Travis Kelce options in this passing game.
MORE: 2023 WR Fantasy Football Rankings
Skyy Moore: For the season, 48.2% of Moore’s receiving yards came on the 52-yarder in Jacksonville in Week 2, and in Week 4, he was shut out for the second time in the opening month. The ceiling for all of these Chief receivers is reasonable, given the scoring environment in which they play, but with a rock-bottom floor and without consistent looks, Moore isn’t a must-roster player anymore.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: I understand that targets from Mahomes are more valuable than targets from any other human on planet Earth, but with nine targets through the first month, MVS simply isn’t in a fantasy-friendly spot. Sure, it’s worth noting that two of his six catches have gained more than 30 yards. If you want to plug him in and pray when your roster is ravaged by injuries/byes, go for it, but there’s no other role he should be filling for you right now.
Justin Watson: His name makes the list because his 41 snaps played on Sunday night led Kansas City receivers, but with all four of the mentioned WRs running 17-22 routes, Watson is firmly outside of the mix in standard-sized leagues.
Not included in that sample size is Kadarius Toney, a receiver who was on the field for just 17 snaps. He caught both targets (22 yards), though his playing time is preventing him from being a must-roster fantasy option.
Justin Jefferson: The Panthers held Jefferson to a season-low in catches, targets, and yards last week. All of those things are true, and he still lit them up for 23.5 fantasy points. The ceiling is similar for all of the elite receivers, but there isn’t a receiver in the game who offers a fantasy floor that rivals that of Jefferson.
First Read Leaders per @FantasyPtsData
1. Davante Adams, 55%👀
2. Garrett Wilson, 44%
3. AJ Brown, 43%
4. Justin Jefferson, 38%
5. Stefon Diggs, 38%
6. Puka Nacua, 37%
7. Ja'Marr Chase, 36%
8. Amon-Ra St. Brown, 35%
9. Keenan Allen, 35%
10. Zay Flowers, 34%
11. Tyreek Hill, 34%— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) October 3, 2023
Jordan Addison: One week after showing signs of potentially distancing himself from K.J. Osborn in the race for the WR2 role in Minnesota, Addison was a no-show in the win against the Panthers. He failed to catch his one target, and while that is a bummer for fantasy managers, it was a weird game across the board and likely is more of a bump in the road than a reason for panic.
Cousins averaged 32 completions through the first three weeks of this season. On Sunday, he attempted 19 passes. Not completed, attempted. I used this space last week to highlight Cousins’ near 6,100-yard pace and noted that it was sustainable.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
His true outcome will be somewhere in the middle of these extremes, and that still makes the WR2 role in Minnesota one that I’ll consider as a top-25 fantasy receiver most weeks should the role be won outright.
Addison ranks ahead of Osborn for me in this potential shootout, checking in as WR28.
K.J. Osborn: Addison was shut out last week, making Osborn’s one-catch 16-yard performance not seem so bad, but again, this wasn’t the type of game that I anticipate seeing from Minnesota with any sort of consistency. It should be noted that Osborn was on the field for 12 more snaps than his rookie counterpart, though his edge in routes run was only four.
The high-scoring projection for this game allows Osborn to slide into my top-50 at the position, though the floor is clearly a low one, given that the next time he reaches 40 yards this season will be the first.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce: As you know, this article is released every Thursday, and you should have read it upon publication on your things-to-do list. If that is the case, thank you! Also, wish Kelce a happy 34th birthday. The GOAT has seen at least eight targets in every game this season, and even in a Week 4 performance where Mahomes didn’t look great, Kelce finished with more catches than any of his teammates had targets.
Noah Gray hauled in the 34-yard touchdown against the Jets. No, we don’t have a tight-end committee happening here. Kelce leads the position in both ceiling and floor outcomes, making him my TE1 any week in which he is playing.
T.J. Hockenson: Have I mentioned yet that Week 4 was an outlier for this high-octane offense? They held the ball for under 22 minutes against the Panthers, an outlier game flow that is statistically unlikely to happen. From a macro standpoint, Jefferson was the only Viking with more catches, targets, or receiving yards than Hockenson — there’s no concern here, and you should feel great about considering he and Mark Andrews the second tier of fantasy TE.
Should You Start Rashee Rice or Adam Thielen?
Call me crazy, but all signs are pointing to the rookie establishing himself as a part of this offense, and I’ll go ahead and bet on Mahomes to pay that off in this favorable matchup. All of his participation numbers are on the rise, and that’s really all I needed to know to sell me on him over Thielen in this Bryce Young-led offense that is still too conservative.
I’m on board with acquiring Rice on the cheap now – you might not have that opportunity for much longer!
Should You Start Kirk Cousins or Trevor Lawrence?
Cousins gets the nod in this battle of top-10 quarterbacks for me due to his projectable volume. The Vikings hardly had the ball last weekend against the Panthers, something that I don’t expect to carry over into this matchup. Alexander Mattison is an average back, and the Vikes skew toward going to their plus-playmaking pass catchers instead of committing to the run.
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That puts Cousins in a good spot to attempt 5-10 more passes than Lawrence this week, given how good Travis Etienne has looked through a month. I expect the game script to be favorable for both of these options, making it possible that there is no bad choice, but the elevated floor of Cousins has him ranked higher for me.