Last season, the Kansas City Chiefs offense set the NFL on fire. Fueled by league MVP Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City led the league in both yards and points per game. And this offensive success took them all the way to the AFC Championship Game.
Ultimately though, it was their defense that let them down. The Chiefs inability to stop Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in overtime cost them a trip to the Super Bowl. So it makes sense that they spent most of the offseason trying to fix that problem.
Back in April, the Chiefs drafted three offensive and three defensive players, but it was clear where their priorities were. That’s because three of their first four picks were defensive players. They also made multiple major defensive free agent signings, including star safety Tyrann Mathieu. They also fired defensive coordinator Bob Sutton and hired Steve Spagnuolo to be his replacement. All of these changes, combined with the success of their offense last season, have led many to peg Kansas City as a favorite to make the Super Bowl.
Losing Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt is a big problem
But even if their attempts to patch the defense works, the Chiefs might have more problems on the offensive side of the ball than people expect. Two of the most critical pieces of the offense that were so successful last season, Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt, are no longer available to them due to off-the-field issues. Hunt is no longer on the roster, having been released 11 weeks into last season. And while Hill is still with the team, his current legal situation puts their relationship in serious jeopardy. Assuming that he is eventually let go, the Chiefs offense will be thrown into a state of uncertainty.
Hill and Hunt were crucial to Kansas City’s offense last season. The two players accounted for 2,832 yards and 27 touchdowns. That amounts to 42% of the Chiefs’ offensive yards last season, and 41% of their touchdowns. Kansas City needs to find a way to make up for that loss in production. Doing so with a single player would be almost impossible. So the Chiefs are hoping that a combination of returning players and offseason additions will be enough.
Damien Williams has potential, but also a lot to prove
Of the two players, Hunt is significantly easier to replace. While high-caliber running backs are valuable, many teams now use a committee-based approach at the position. The Chiefs appear to be taking this approach in 2019. The first player in Kansas City’s new running back tandem is Damien Williams. After Hunt was released last season, Williams took over the starting job. And he had some phenomenal performances during his limited playing time. For example, in Kansas City’s playoff game against the Indianapolis Colts, Williams had 129 rushing yards and a touchdown on 25 carries.
However, despite his flashes of brilliance last season, Williams has yet to perform at a high level over the course of a full season. During his five year career, he has never had more than 50 carries in a season (not including the playoffs). Across his entire career, Williams has just 183 rushing attempts across his 74 appearances. For comparison, Hunt has 453 rushing attempts in only 27 games. As good as Williams was at times last season, he still needs to prove that he is capable of maintaining that high level of play over the course of an entire season.
Carlos Hyde should be a solid backup for Williams
In order to help compensate for Williams’ lack of experience as a starting running back, the Chiefs signed Carlos Hyde. Despite presumably being signed as the backup, Hyde is significantly more accomplished than Williams. Although he has never broken 1,000 yards in a season, he came very close in both 2016 and 2017. Unfortunately, he didn’t get the chance to break 1,000 yards in 2018. He only played in 12 games and ended up starting for two different teams: the Cleveland Browns and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Changing teams mid-season is not easy, so it is unsurprising that Hyde had a relatively poor year statistically, rushing for only 571 yards and five touchdowns. However, his PFN Offensive Share Metric (OSM) grade was actually relatively high at 34.2. This high grade implies that, in spite of the overall chaos of his season, Hyde did what he could with the circumstances presented to him. Ideally, he should be a good backup for Williams. He has put together multiple solid, if unspectacular, seasons for several teams. However, if Williams is unable to perform at a high level, Hyde has yet to prove that he will be able to pick up the slack.
Replacing Tyreek Hill
Between Williams and Hyde, Kansas City probably has enough production to make up for the loss of Hunt. But replacing Hill is a different challenge. The third-year receiver was fourth in the NFL in receiving yards (1,479) and receiving touchdowns (12). He also averaged an impressive 17.0 yards per reception. Those are the numbers of a star wide receiver, and you could argue that Hill was the most dangerous player at his position last season. Replacing a player of that caliber is almost impossible. In order to do so, the Chiefs will need significant contributions from multiple players.
Sammy Watkins is talented, but often injured
The current number one wide receiver for the Chiefs is Sammy Watkins. Watkins was drafted fourth overall in 2014, but has never quite been able to live up to his full potential. That’s not to say that he is a bad receiver. In fact, when healthy he has played very well. Even last season, when his production was limited both by injury and the presence of Hill, Watkins was able to perform at a high level. In just ten games as the number two receiver, he had 519 yards and three touchdowns. He also received the extremely high OSM grade of 39. This statistic implies that, although his targets were restricted by the aforementioned factors, Watkins did everything he could with those limited chances.
The primary concern with Watkins is his injury history. He missed significant playing time in both 2016 and 2018 with foot injuries, missing a total of 14 games over those two seasons. Although he returned in time for the postseason last year, Kansas City cannot afford to have their number one receiver miss that much time during a season in which they are supposed to be on the verge of winning a Super Bowl. If he is significantly injured again in 2019, the Chiefs could be in serious trouble.
Rookie Mecole Hardman will need to be a major contributor
Even if Watkins can stay healthy, Kansas City will still need a second receiver to back him up. In an attempt to fill this gap, the Chiefs traded up in the second round to draft Georgia wide receiver, Mecole Hardman. In many ways, Hardman is very similar to Hill. At 5’11” and 183 pounds, the two players are almost exactly the same size. And they have similar athletic profiles as well. Hardman ran a blazing 4.33 40-yard dash at the NFL combine, and he is a talented returner. These are areas in which Hill also excelled. And if Hardman can contribute even half as much as Hill did in 2018, then the Chiefs will have found a dangerous offensive weapon.
But as talented as Hardman is, his college production was somewhat lacking. He had less than 1,000 total receiving yards across his three-year career with Georgia. In his senior year, he wasn’t even the team’s leading receiver. Riley Ridley, who was selected in the fourth round by the Chicago Bears, had more receptions, yards, and touchdowns than Hardman in 2018.
To be fair, Hardman is more naturally gifted than Ridley, which is why he was selected significantly earlier. It is entirely possible that the Chiefs will be able to use his physical tools better than Georgia did. That said, it is difficult to say how well he will perform in an expanded role. I think there are good reasons to be optimistic, but as with most of the other signings Kansas City has made offensively, nothing is guaranteed. And if the Chiefs want to win the Super Bowl next season, Hardman will likely need to be a major part of their offense.
The Chiefs new-look offense has potential, but there is a lot of uncertainty involved
The Chiefs have done what they could to fill the gaps left by the unfortunate actions of two of their star players. But their solutions rely on players who, for various reasons, have not yet proven that they are capable of making up for the production that was lost. And for a team that appears to be doubling down for a Super Bowl run next season, those uncertainties could sink their chances. Williams, Hyde, Watkins, and Hardman have the talent to keep Kansas City’s offense on track next season. But there is a lot more uncertainty involved than most people realize. And if the Chiefs new starters do not live up to expectations, then Kansas City’s season could be significantly less successful than many people are predicting it to be.