The Detroit Lions‘ 21-20 win against the Kansas City Chiefs to open the NFL season was decided over 60 minutes but highlighted by a few high-leverage decisions.
In the end, the Chiefs’ weapons couldn’t get the job done for Patrick Mahomes, and a few coaching decisions changed the game.
Decisions, Decisions, Decisions
In particular, a few fourth down decisions made a massive difference in the Lions’ win against the Chiefs.
The Fake Punt
Dan Campbell didn’t make every decision by the analytical book last night, but the one “aggressive” decision he made was, in fact, backed by ESPN’s win probability model.
If going for it from your own 17-yard-line feels insane, it’s probably because, by most accounts, it absolutely is. Taking the ball out of the offense’s hands and putting that responsibility on a fake punt is not accounted for in the model.
It was a do-or-die decision made by a team that was seen as inferior, like an FCS school facing the University of Michigan.
That decision, and the execution of the decision, led to a touchdown. Detroit won by a single point.
The Field Goal
Andy Reid’s decision to kick a field goal on fourth-and-two with Mahomes at quarterback is already an interesting decision. Taking into account the win probability model, it was a poor choice all around.
The Chiefs’ win probability when going for it was 68%, while kicking the field goal made it 67%. That’s not a grave error, but one lacking aggression. And with Mahomes at the helm, it makes little sense to play with such a passive attitude.
If the Chiefs succeeded on fourth down, they would have had a 76% probability to win, and failing the attempt still gave them a better than 50% chance to win.
The Fourth-and-25
With just over two minutes remaining and staring down a fourth and forever, the Chiefs decided to go for it. Although late aggression is usually the correct choice, analytical models didn’t agree with Reid’s decision.
Going for it gave the Chiefs a 20.8% chance to win. Punting gave them a 22.9% chance to win the game.
But there was another option. It would have been a galaxy-brained decision, but they could have stepped out at the nine-yard line. Detroit couldn’t have run the clock out. They would have been forced to either score a touchdown or kick a field goal, giving Mahomes the ball back with time remaining.
In the end, none of these decisions necessarily won or lost the game. The Chiefs had chances to move the ball all night and failed repeatedly.
