It’s crazy to think that Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase were on the same college football team, with Joe Burrow slinging the football in their direction. Jefferson was the 22nd overall pick to the Minnesota Vikings in 2020, while Chase went fifth overall to the Cincinnati Bengals a year later. It’s widely accepted that Chase was the better prospect coming out of LSU, but who is currently the better receiver at the NFL level?
Playing receiver is not “one size fits all.” Jefferson and Chase are very different, and choosing one might simply be a personal preference. But if we’re looking for a player who can be QB-independent, there could be a clear answer.
Here, we’ll pit them against one another trait by trait and come to a conclusion.
Justin Jefferson vs. Ja’Marr Chase
Through two seasons in the NFL, Jefferson has amassed 3,016 yards on 196 receptions. He’s scored 17 times in 33 games. After Jefferson broke the rookie receiving record, it was Chase’s turn. However, that record does come with a caveat, as Chase played an extra regular-season game, and his per-game average of 85.6 was 1.9 yards-per-game fewer than Jefferson as a rookie.
But Chase scored 13 touchdowns last year, while Jefferson scored only seven times as a rookie. Touchdowns aren’t as “sticky” year to year as other metrics, but Chase has the type of big-play ability that lends itself to big scoring seasons.
In a Twitter poll conducted over a 24-hour period that garnered 2,032 votes, Chase won with 56% of the vote.
Before last season, former Pewter Report analyst Jon Ledyard took Mike Evans and Chris Godwin through this process. That piece was the inspiration for this one.
Justin Jefferson vs. Ja’Marr Chase: Route running
Route running encompasses every part of the process. From the release to the stem to the top of the route, everything will be covered here.
Releases
We can break this down into two sub-categories, press and off-coverage releases. There is very little to differentiate the two against press coverage. The truth is, they both dominate against press coverage, albeit by different means.
Matt Harmon charts every rep a receiver takes throughout a season for his Reception Perception project. Without giving away the answers to the test, both proved to be in the 95th percentile or higher in his study. Who scored higher can remain a mystery for one’s wallet to solve.
They go about it in different ways. Chase is pure violence. His success rate is amazing against press, given his 18th-percentile arm length. But in those short arms are a ton of strength and violence. And his lower half is much the same. Chase explodes off the line, and he has so much athleticism that he can get wide and miss the redline of his stem momentarily before getting back on track with the cornerback stacked.
Meanwhile, Jefferson wins off the line more as an artist. He doesn’t have the foot speed or deceptive tendencies of Keenan Allen, but his explosiveness and flexibility go a long way. He’s also well-versed in deception, changing pace, and bending through contact. But Jefferson’s far more physical than he was given credit for while at LSU, when defeating press coverage was many a draft analyst’s most important question about his NFL projection, given his usage at LSU.
Advantage: Push
The result is a bit different against off coverage. Off-coverage releases are not stemming manipulation against a CB playing 7+ yards off the line of scrimmage. We’re discussing here each receiver’s ability to win off the line against a CB playing three yards off the line.
Few players, if any, provide more versatility than Jefferson in these situations. Davante Adams might be an exception. This is where Jefferson’s flexibility and mind genuinely shine. For such a young receiver, he is well beyond his years from a technical perspective. Adams said that Jefferson has progressed in dog years and said the young receiver reminds him of a six-year veteran.
Jefferson manipulates his speed skillfully, but his stride-length manipulation and ability to attack leverage make him so dangerous. Teams are better off trying to press him and at least try to get their hands on him to slow him down because playing softer man coverage is useless.
Chase certainly doesn’t struggle against off-man coverage. In fact, he flourishes against it. But he isn’t the technician Jefferson is; if a defender can get into his chest, he can disrupt Chase’s route timing.
Advantage: Jefferson
Nobody is better along the route stem and at the breakpoint than Jefferson. He is the most deceptive route runner and natural separator in the league at the intermediate levels of the field. He’s a wizard against zone and match-based zone coverages. His ability to find the soft spot in true country-zone looks is outrageous, and his ability to attack a defender’s leverage in match-zone looks allows him to separate independently of his natural quickness.
Jefferson’s rocker step could be hung in the Louvre. It’s what made him so dangerous playing from the slot against quarters-based coverages in college, and he’s followed it up by toying with NFL defenders the same way.
To top it off, Jefferson does have outstanding separation quickness and has shown a propensity to play a far more physical style than he did in college at the top of routes when he needs to give himself a hand with a slight shove.
Chase isn’t as detailed, but that’s not to say he’s a poor route runner or that he’s only sufficient. Jefferson is just that good. Chase works far more on the vertical plane than Jefferson, who is used in a more versatile manner in the Vikings’ offense. That should become even more apparent with Kevin O’Connell coming from Sean McVay and the Rams.
Despite running a more limited route tree, Chase succeeds against man coverage at an elite level. Chase doesn’t need the technical prowess of those like Stefon Diggs, Adams, or Allen to win. He has endless explosiveness that he used to separate seemingly at will against man. He also uses his physicality and a bit of uncalled offensive pass interference to get open.
Advantage: Jefferson
Jefferson vs. Chase: Hands/ball skills
The larger sample size here from Jefferson hurts him. Jefferson posted outstanding contested numbers and a minuscule drop rate in his first season in the league. Chase actually dropped a higher rate of passes as a rookie with 11 compared to Jefferson’s seven. In fact, according to Pro Football Reference, Chase had over double the drop rate of Jefferson.
But that doesn’t tell the entire story. Jefferson is great in the air, but he’s not as physical as Chase. He can elevate with anyone, and his 33-inch arms and good vertical leap allow him to finish above the rim and outstretched arms of defenders.
But Chase is a shorter, yet supercharged version of prime Dez Bryant at the catch point. He’s the definition of an alpha receiver. There isn’t a back-shoulder fade that Burrow doesn’t believe with his whole heart Chase won’t come down with. Despite Chase’s ability to separate naturally, his limited route tree meant more often than not, defenders could keep things tight.
In fact, Chase finished catches over 75% of the time on contested targets. He was a monster on the vertical plane at LSU, which has continued at the NFL level. He’s remained dominant there despite being just over 6-foot with short arms.
Advantage: Chase
Jefferson vs. Chase: Big Plays
Jefferson — ranked as PFN’s top receiver in the NFL — possesses a higher yards-per-catch average than the rest of the top five, showing his ability to consistently pick up chunk yards.
But he’s nowhere near Chase in this category because, arguably, only Deebo Samuel can compare. Maybe Samuel can be as good a downfield threat as Chase, but with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm, he could only be used in the short-to-intermediate area as a YAC weapon.
Chase doesn’t do it in just one way, either. He’s not the 215 pounds Samuel is, but he bounces off tackles at a ridiculous rate. Then, if he finds a bit of space, his vision, explosiveness, and long speed allow him to break open monster touchdown catches from opposing territory.
Jefferson shows some shiftiness on screens and after the catch, but he doesn’t have Chase’s creativity or physicality.
Advantage: Chase
Jefferson vs. Chase: Consistency
Because of each receiver’s archetype, it’s somewhat easy to pinpoint this category. Jefferson’s game travels week in and week out. He’s a natural separator with an outstanding understanding of how to find space against zone. Meanwhile, Chase’s usage and still developing ability to find space made him a bit inconsistent as a rookie.
This could also just be the difference between a rookie and someone with multiple years of experience. Jefferson only had two games under 50 yards last season, but he had four games of under 40 as a rookie (Chase had five).
This could also become even more prevalent with O’Connell coming to Minnesota. If he wants to use Jefferson in a role similar to Cooper Kupp in Los Angeles, he could see over 200 targets. Chase will always be efficient with Burrow throwing him the ball, but he’s competing for targets with Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, and is playing in a more traditional X-receiver role.
Advantage: Jefferson
Jefferson vs. Chase: Separating them from QB play
There’s no denying Chase ended up in the best possible situation for his success as a rookie. While he would put up big numbers no matter the QB under center, like Dez Bryant with Tony Romo, it takes a certain caliber passer to get the most out of him. While much of Chase’s contested success is based on his own abilities, Burrow’s pinpoint placement helps facilitate that efficiency also.
If Chase becomes more consistent at defeating zone coverage, he could end up becoming as QB-independent as Jefferson. But because Jefferson makes a quarterback’s job so simple, he would produce at a higher level with lower-tier QB play than Chase would in theory.
Advantage: Jefferson
Jefferson vs. Chase: Conclusion
Jefferson won the battle of the traits 4-2-1, but that doesn’t automatically mean he’s the better player. The argument between the two is a bit like the argument between someone like Adams and Tyreek Hill. From a technical perspective, Hill isn’t the receiver Adams is, but if you ask a defensive coordinator who is more terrifying to game plan against, the answer is probably Hill.
The same sort of argument could be made here. As a pure receiver, Jefferson is the better of the two. But the NFL isn’t a pitch-and-catch league. Defenders still must tackle and defend at the catch point. And while Jefferson is darned good at the catch point and after, Chase is in a tier of his own.
If we were starting a team and didn’t know the quarterback situation, with both players under the same contractual parameters, the pick would be Jefferson. His game, theoretically, will last longer as well because he doesn’t rely on his physical dominance as much.
But if Chase can continue to develop his craft, the sky is the limit for the second-year receiver. And that upside as a route runner could be enough to gamble on. But for now, the quarterback throwing him the ball is important, so before choosing between the two, it would be nice to know who is throwing to him.
There is no “wrong” answer when debating the two most talented receivers in the league under 24 years old. But the consistency, route-running ability, and solid contested ability make Jefferson the best receiver in the NFL, for this writer’s money.