Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson was the No. 1 overall pick in many fantasy football drafts entering the 2023 NFL season. However, after a disappointing year filled with injuries and a subsequent offseason that saw his starting quarterback depart via free agency — the talented wideout has mostly fallen out of the discussion for the No. 1 pick approaching the 2024 NFL season.
Is the drop in ADP (average draft position) justified, or are fantasy managers sleeping on Jefferson in 2024?
Justin Jefferson’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 326.7
- Receptions: 109.8
- Receiving Yards: 1,639.6
- Receiving TDs: 8.3
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Jefferson This Year?
The greatness we’ve seen from Jefferson through his first three years was so undeniable that he received a $140 million contract this offseason.
Quite frankly, he deserves every penny. No player in NFL history has ever compiled more receiving yards under the age of 25 than Jefferson’s 5,899.
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However, Jefferson’s quarterback for the majority of his career was Kirk Cousins, who is now a member of the Atlanta Falcons. This leaves either veteran journeyman Sam Darnold to take over under center for Minnesota this season.
This isn’t exactly a fantasy death sentence for a talent as exceptional as Jefferson, but it certainly could cast some doubt that this offense will be as productive and efficient through the air in 2024.
On the flip side, the status of T.J. Hockenson — who is recovering from a torn ACL — and Jordan Addison — who was arrested this offseason on suspicion of DUI — both could miss some time this season, which could open up an even larger target share for Jefferson.
In Jefferson’s three full seasons, he has been nothing short of a fantasy superstar.
Jefferson’s Season Stats:
- 2023: 68 receptions, 1,074 yards, five TDs (WR33 overall)
- 2022: 128 receptions, 1,809 yards, eight TDs (WR1 overall)
- 2021: 108 receptions, 1,616 yards, 10 TDs (WR4 overall)
- 2020: 88 receptions, 1,400 yards, seven TDs (WR6 overall)
Obviously, the one blip in his fantasy résumé came last year when he missed seven games due to a hamstring injury, but Jefferson’s exceptional start to the year should put last year in context. In the first four games of the season, Jefferson was the WR1 overall with 25.8 fantasy points per game. He was top five in every major receiving category at the time and was well on his way to another elite fantasy campaign.
Jefferson is still an elite talent at the WR position, and you won’t hear much of an argument from me if you believe he is the best wideout in the game. However, the situation under center compared to those of other elite first-round receivers carries some uncertainty regarding his 2024 projection.
Jefferson’s ADP is at No. 6 overall, going off the board in the first round as the WR3, which is more than appropriate given his outstanding production every year.
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Could an argument be made for players like Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown, and Ja’Marr Chase to be selected ahead of Jefferson strictly based on their quarterback situation? Yes, but I’m not ready to fade Jefferson too far down the board.
Ultimately, Jefferson still projects as a rock-solid WR1 for your fantasy team. I would simply argue his fantasy ceiling is a bit more in question with the uncertainty of whether Darnold can run the passing offense at its highest possible level.
