One of the top wide receivers in the NFL and fantasy football, Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson projects to be an early pick once again as his 2022 outlook rivals the top players in the game. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Jefferson’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Justin Jefferson’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Do something once, and people think it’s a fluke. Do it twice, and they’re forced to take notice. That is what Jefferson has done since entering the NFL in 2020. He’s taken the league by storm and become one of the premier receivers in the league.
After smashing Randy Moss’ rookie records with 88 receptions, 1,400 yards, and seven TDs, Jefferson followed it up with 108 receptions on 167 targets for 1,616 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2021. His 3,032 yards are the most in NFL history for a player through their first two years in the league. Jefferson’s only getting better and not yet in his prime.
After posting a WR6 finish and 17.1 PPR points per game as a rookie, Jefferson proved it was no fluke by putting up 19.4 ppg and finishing as the WR4 in 2021. For a player who heavily relies on deeper aDOT looks (league-leading 2,218 intended air yards in 2021), Jefferson is shockingly consistent from a fantasy perspective.
In his 33 active games, Jefferson has finished as a WR1 33% of the time. He’s finished as a WR2 (top 24 or better) in 66% of his games. In 2021, 82% of his games (14) saw him finish inside the top 24. Jefferson is special. There are no two ways about it.
Expect more of the same in 2022
It would be foolish of me to expect some massive drop-off when nothing in his data or film suggests that it will happen. Having just turned 23 years old, Jefferson is only getting better and commanding more of the targets. However, it will soon become challenging to keep beating his previous seasons.
After accounting for 38% of the intended air yards in 2020, Jefferson saw a whopping 51.6% in 2022. It was the highest individual total of any receiver in the league, followed by A.J. Brown (45.7%), Terry McLaurin (42.4%), and DJ Moore (41.7%). His 29.2% target share was also third-most behind only Cooper Kupp (32.4%) and Davante Adams (31.36%). At some point, Jefferson will plateau when it comes to how much of the work he commands. I’m not saying it will drop; just stop rising.
Yet, as far as the 2022 season goes, I expect Jefferson to make it a hat trick of sensational seasons to start his career. Jefferson should benefit from an even more passing-centric scheme in a new offense under Kevin O’Connell. If Jefferson sees north of 150 targets (which he did last season), pencil him in for 1,500 yards and 8-11 touchdowns.
Jefferson’s a top-three pick at the position, alongside Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase of the Bengals. There is no wrong option, just a difference in what you value and how you project these offenses to look in 2022. While I do have Kupp as the WR1, Jefferson or Chase should be the next ones off the board.
How the Vikings’ depth chart impacts Justin Jefferson’s fantasy projection for the season
As a whole, the Vikings’ offense looks strikingly similar to last season. It was the defense that saw most of the improvement. They signed Za’Darius Smith to a three-year deal, added DT Harrison Phillips, LB Jordan Hicks, CB Chandon Sullivan, and re-signed CB Patrick Peterson.
They even used their first two picks in the 2022 NFL Draft on their secondary, selecting hard-hitting Georgia S Lewis Cine in Round 1 and Clemson CB Andrew Booth Jr. in Round 2.
On offense, it was the offensive line that drew the front office’s attention, and for a good reason. Last season, the Vikings OL ranked 24th in DVOA per Football Outsiders, primarily struggling in run blocking (24th). However, they excelled in pass pro, ranking third in DVOA, and allowing a sack on just 4.8% of Kirk Cousins’ dropbacks (fifth fewest).
LT Christian Darrisaw and RT Brian O’Neill are the only projected returning starters from last season. Bolstering the OL is Ed Ingram out of LSU (pick No. 59), Jesse Davis from Miami as the RG, and Garrett Bradbury taking the starting center job after Mason Cole left for the Steelers.
Minnesota should have their full complement of playmakers in 2022
At the skill positions, it’s the same as the last two seasons. Jefferson is flanked by Adam Thielen, who is coming back from a late-season ACL tear, as is Irv Smith Jr. after missing all of last season. Cousins will be thankful to have two of his favorite targets back, especially Thielen, who was his top red-zone target the last few seasons.
Add in Dalvin Cook in the backfield and K.J. Osborn as the No. 3, and fans will see a very similar team on the field. Jefferson, who has carved out his role in this offense’s pecking order, should again be set for a sensational season in what looks to be a more vertical offense under O’Connell.
Jefferson’s ADP for 2022
If you asked me to lay down money on which wide receiver dethrones Kupp in 2022, my pick would be Jefferson. Based on the ADP, I’m not the only one either. Currently the WR2 with an overall 6 ADP, Jefferson is one of the first picks in 2022. He’s also the WR2 in our consensus 2022 fantasy football rankings with an overall 5 ADP.
I’ve started to see this mini-trend in recent weeks of Jefferson going above Kupp in some mock drafts. Not only do I like seeing it, but I also bet this happens more and more often as fantasy leagues conduct their official drafts too.
All Jefferson has done is exceed expectations in the NFL. He was doing that in an offense with a run-first approach. Now with O’Connell, that same vertical approach that worked in Los Angeles is reshaping how the Vikings play football. What it has also done is move Jefferson into the slot more based on reporting. That is a massive deal. When you move an elite receiver into the slot, they are at an advantage.
For one, defenses can’t double-team a slot without virtually leaving someone open. Secondly, corners cannot use the boundary as an extra defense, squeezing the area in which the QB can place the ball over the outside shoulder. Finally, this means Jefferson would have from basically the hash, all the way to the sidelines to release past the CB and put him on his back hip.
In just two years, Jefferson is already one of the best in the NFL. Odds are he’s the No. 1 drafted wide receiver this time next year.