On Saturday Night Football, with the whole world watching, the greatest quarterback matchup of all time commences. Never before have we witnessed a hair matchup like Justin Herbert vs. Trevor Lawrence. Each has a mop that would bring a tear to Troy Polamalu’s eye. But each quarterback is also part of the next generation of elite QB play.
The old guard of Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, and Aaron Rodgers are all fading into the distance, and for a while, it seemed nobody would take their place. Now, Herbert, Lawrence, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson (who is still 26) are bringing in the new era. Patrick Mahomes remains in a league of his own.
The days of the pocket passer are dead. Athletic freaks with big arms and quick feet dominate the game. Just 19 months separate Herbert and Lawrence in age. If we were to start an NFL franchise from scratch, with each player receiving the same contract, which QB would be the first pick?
Justin Herbert vs. Trevor Lawrence
While it’s not necessarily fair because they’re playing in completely different situations, we must look at each player’s statistical profile from 2022 and what they’ve done so far in their young careers.
These decisions can often be made from the narratives surrounding each player. NFL media and fans have a “what have you done for me lately” attitude, and Lawrence is riding that wave to the bank right now.
However, in what has widely been regarded as a down year for Herbert, there is very little separating the two statistically, and Herbert clears Lawrence in some metrics. Let’s pit them against one another to see who holds the advantage.
- QBR: Herbert 58.4 (11th), Lawrence 54.5 (15th)
- EPA+CPOE: Lawrence 0.105 (10th), Herbert 0.092 (14th)
- ANY/A: Lawrence 7.3 (11th), Herbert 6.9 (18th)
- Catchable percentage: Herbert 88.3%, Lawrence 86.1%
- On-target percentage: Lawrence 78.5%, Herbert 76.6%
- Pressure percentage: Herbert 36.5%, Lawrence 31.2%
They had very similar seasons statistically, but Lawrence has received more praise for his year than Herbert.
Arm Talent
Both players have outstanding arms, but Herbert can do things with a football that maybe only Allen can duplicate. Herbert’s job is harder than Lawrence’s within their offenses. Doug Pederson is one of the 10 best play-callers and schemers in the NFL. Joe Lombardi is not.
Christian Kirk can separate, whereas Herbert’s receiving targets lack that characteristic. Mike Williams is a fantastic talent, but there might be 20 yards of separation when adding up all 93 of his targets this season.
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Herbert might be the best in the game at leveraging passing away from defenders. Unfortunately, he has to be, or the Los Angeles Chargers‘ offense wouldn’t move the ball.
And while Lawrence doesn’t shy away from showing off his impressive arm, Herbert consistently makes physics-defying passes look routine. Lawrence’s 2021 struggles are behind him, but he still occasionally struggled with ball placement, particularly on out-breaking routes in the intermediate levels of the field.
Advantage: Herbert
Pocket Presence
Just as there may be just a single fellow who rivals Herbert’s arm, there aren’t many who can hold a candle to Lawrence’s innate ability to escape pressure and manipulate the pocket to deliver passes. Again, Mahomes is the standard, and Burrow is also a wizard at avoiding pressure.
Lawrence’s wiry frame is surprisingly nimble, and that flexible elusiveness meant only taking 27 sacks in 17 games. His 4.4% sack rate also bested Herbert, who sat at 5.2 in 2022. However, Herbert was pressured nearly 100 more times than Lawrence, giving him a lower pressure-to-sack rate.
That’s right, Herbert is good at it too, which simply adds to his allure as a player, and helps prove how impressive both players are.
Advantage: Lawrence
Rushing Ability
It’s not fair to judge each player’s ability based on 2022. Herbert broke his ribs midway through the season, and Lawrence has been hampered by a toe injury here and there.
Herbert did not have a good year on the ground, but he has the best season between the two of them. Last year, Herbert had an EPA of 19.75 and sat at 0.31 per attempt. Even Herbert’s rookie season was better than any season Lawrence has had on the ground to date.
We’ve simply forgotten about that part of Herbert’s game because of his rib injury. Still, that doesn’t mean he’s the better runner.
The problem of choosing between the two comes down to two things. Herbert has the better frame, and Lawrence has more twitch. When playing QB, both are incredibly important. Herbert may hold up better to the punishment, but Lawrence has more twitch and is the more natural rusher.
Advantage: Lawrence
Creativity
Both players are prototypical in size and are athletic enough to get out in space and make throws. The difference between the two is in their movement. Herbert is thicker, and a bit mechanical. It’s the difference between him and Allen as runners as well. While that extends to his throwing motion, it doesn’t hamper him outside of the pocket.
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It doesn’t matter, though, because Lawrence is Rob Thomas-level smooth. Santana is on the guitar, and Lawrence’s hair is flowing in the wind as he delivers passes with an incredible snap. When it comes to “looking like a quarterback,” nobody does it quite like Lawrence, who effortlessly delivers passes on at full chap.
Advantage: Lawrence
Ball Security
Just as things were starting to get out of hand, turnovers show up to give us a ball game. If there’s one part of Lawrence’s game that must improve more than anything, it is this. His 12 fumbles were fourth most in the NFL. Herbert had eight.
Nobody in the NFL took better care of the ball than Herbert, who had a 1.6% turnover-worthy play rate. Lawrence certainly wasn’t bad overall, but his 3% rate was nearly double Herbert’s. Herbert’s ball security is especially impressive because of the low margin for error afforded to him in Lombardi’s offense.
Advantage: Herbert
Take Your Pick
In the end, choosing between Herbert and Lawrence is like choosing an ice cream flavor. There is no wrong answer unless your answer is mint. Mint is meant for toothpaste and alcohol. If I was on the clock, I’d rather one of them already be off the board, so my choice is made for me. But there’s no room to ride the fence in a situation like this.
Thomas Shelby would flip a coin in this situation. But that leaves things up to chance. Justin Herbert, come on down!