The injury to Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert was a big storyline that developed during the Week 14 action, and now we have clarity on his timeline, so what does it mean for fantasy football managers who are trying to land the plane on a title run and have players like RB Austin Ekeler and WR Keenan Allen?
Justin Herbert Injury Update
Herbert fractured his right index finger over the weekend and has opted for season-ending surgery. This is a massive blow for the 25-year-old, but it’s not a surprising result, given the Chargers’ 5-8 record.
The former Oregon Duck signal-caller was a QB1 for fantasy on eight occasions this season, and while most of his high-end production came early on, there’s no denying the impact of this injury as fantasy leagues prepare to crown a champion.
Keenan Allen Rest-of-Season Outlook
This is a killer. Allen has not one, not two, but three weekly finishes atop the WR position this season — a ceiling that figures to be a distant memory by the time this season wraps up.
Before I get into Allen specifically, let’s take a look at the team’s remaining schedule:
- Week 15 at Las Vegas Raiders (Thursday Night)
- Week 16 vs. Buffalo Bills
- Week 17 at Denver Broncos
That doesn’t seem like a daunting stretch, right? On the surface, I’d agree, but let’s take a slightly deeper look.
Week 4 vs. Raiders: In a game without Ekeler, Allen was only able to turn five targets into 32 yards. He scored, but the “Bolts” averaged just 4.8 yards per offensive play, as Herbert turned in his second-lowest yardage total of the season (excluding last week, due to the injury).
Week 13 vs. Broncos: The Los Angeles Chargers looked out of sorts all afternoon and failed to convert a single third down (0 for 12). Herbert dropped back to pass 21 times, which resulted in 96 yards, four sacks, and an interception.
Buffalo Bills: The Buffalo defense has had its issues, but on the road last week, they held QB Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs to his lowest QBR in 769 days.
Are you a little more worried about the schedule now? As for Allen, unfortunately, we have a pretty decent sample size of strong fantasy receivers losing their star QBs, and the returns have been less than inspiring.
- Garrett Wilson: The Jets brought in QB Aaron Rodgers to help Wilson take his game to the next level. Now, Wilson is averaging 15.1% fewer yards per target this season than last.
- Jakobi Meyers: His average weekly finish in the seven games Las Vegas Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo was fully healthy was WR23. That number has slipped to WR47 since.
- Amari Cooper: His next finish as a top-35 receiver since Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson’s season ended will be his first.
- DJ Moore: He has been a top-20 receiver in each of Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields’ past five healthy games, but he didn’t finish a week better than WR40 when Fields was banged up.
The question doesn’t become whether you should drop Allen down your rest-of-season ranks, but if you should drop him out of consideration altogether.
My answer is “no,” but it’s a fair question, and that answer isn’t given with supreme confidence. Given Allen’s route versatility and the creativity of Kellen Moore, the PPR floor should remain tolerable — not what it once was, but good enough to justify playing him.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
The issue, of course, is the ceiling. Backup QB Easton Stick has 14 NFL completions on his NFL résumé, and while he put up numbers at North Dakota State, we have no proof of concept at the professional level, so this opens us up to a wide range of outcomes.
Backup QBs Jake Browning and Tommy DeVito have flashed the ability to produce well above expectations for their respective teams. But for every Browning/DeVito, there’s a Dorian Thompson-Robinson performance that gets swallowed up by the moment.
Where Stick falls on that scale is TBD, and the unknown nature of it fuels my pessimism.
Austin Ekeler Rest-of-Season Outlook
The worries for Ekeler managers started well before Herbert’s injury.
The former All-Pro was not a top-30 producer at the position in three straight games before finally showing signs of life.
Ekeler did, however, bounce back last week with 100 total yards and a touchdown in the loss against the Broncos. For me, his fall in the rankings is less significant than that of Allen because of his versatility.
Moore was encouraged to open up this offense, and he did, which is something that took food off of Ekeler’s plate. This season, his 5.4 targets per game are less than the 6.3 catches he averaged a season ago.
If the Chargers take a page out of the Bengals’ playbook and go conservative with a backup QB (Browning posted a 4.5-yard aDOT for Cincinnati in Week 13), Ekeler stands to retain value — even if the scoring equity takes a dip.
My bigger concern for Ekeler is his contract. He’s set to become an unrestricted free agent after this season, and with nothing left to play for, could he throw in the towel?
MORE: Tate’s Week 15 Waiver Wire Rankings
My guess is no, but it’s an angle that at least needs to be weighed and one that should have RB Joshua Kelley — underwhelming as he may be — stashed on fantasy benches.
Those three remaining opponents are all bottom-10 rush defenses in terms of yards per carry, giving Ekeler hope for increased efficiency on top of (hopefully) expanded work in the passing game. I’m willing to go down with the Ekeler ship — something that is not the case for Allen.
Kyle Yates’ Updated Rest-of-Season Rankings
1) Christian McCaffrey | SF | (RB)
2) Tyreek Hill | MIA | (WR)
3) A.J. Brown | PHI | (WR)
4) CeeDee Lamb | DAL | (WR)
5) Travis Kelce | KC | (TE)
6) Stefon Diggs | BUF | (WR)
7) Kyren Williams | LAR | (RB)
8) Bijan Robinson | ATL | (RB)
9) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | (WR)
10) De’Von Achane | MIA | (RB)
11) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX | (RB)
12) Tony Pollard | DAL | (RB)
13) Rachaad White | TB | (RB)
14) DJ Moore | CHI | (WR)
15) Mike Evans | TB | (WR)
16) Brandon Aiyuk | SF | (WR)
17) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND | (WR)
18) Alvin Kamara | NO | (RB)
19) Saquon Barkley | NYG | (RB)
20) Puka Nacua | LAR | (WR)
21) Derrick Henry | TEN | (RB)
22) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | (WR)
23) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | (RB)
24) Deebo Samuel | SF | (WR)
25) Justin Jefferson | MIN | (WR)
26) Keenan Allen | LAC | (WR)
27) Javonte Williams | DEN | (RB)
28) Zack Moss | IND | (RB)
29) Jaylen Waddle | MIA | (WR)
30) Josh Allen | BUF | (QB)
31) DeVonta Smith | PHI | (WR)
32) David Montgomery | DET | (RB)
33) T.J. Hockenson | MIN | (TE)
34) DK Metcalf | SEA | (WR)
35) Davante Adams | LV | (WR)
36) Josh Jacobs | LV | (RB)
37) Joe Mixon | CIN | (RB)
38) Cooper Kupp | LAR | (WR)
39) Chris Olave | NO | (WR)
40) James Cook | BUF | (RB)
41) Dak Prescott | DAL | (QB)
42) Austin Ekeler | LAC | (RB)
43) George Kittle | SF | (TE)
44) Zay Flowers | BAL | (WR)
45) Jalen Hurts | PHI | (QB)
46) Breece Hall | NYJ | (RB)
47) Garrett Wilson | NYJ | (WR)
48) Lamar Jackson | BAL | (QB)
49) Nico Collins | HOU | (WR)
50) Rashee Rice | KC | (WR)
51) D’Andre Swift | PHI | (RB)
52) Calvin Ridley | JAX | (WR)
53) Raheem Mostert | MIA | (RB)
54) Courtland Sutton | DEN | (WR)
55) Isiah Pacheco | KC | (RB)
56) Ezekiel Elliott | NE | (RB)
57) Trey McBride | ARI | (TE)
58) James Conner | ARI | (RB)
59) Amari Cooper | CLE | (WR)
60) Sam LaPorta | DET | (TE)
61) Justin Fields | CHI | (QB)
62) Jerome Ford | CLE | (RB)
63) Chuba Hubbard | CAR | (RB)
64) Drake London | ATL | (WR)
65) Jaylen Warren | PIT | (RB)
66) Brock Purdy | SF | (QB)
67) Patrick Mahomes II | KC | (QB)
68) Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | (QB)
69) DeAndre Hopkins | TEN | (WR)
70) Kenneth Walker III | SEA | (RB)
71) Najee Harris | PIT | (RB)
72) Jake Ferguson | DAL | (TE)
73) Evan Engram | JAX | (TE)
74) Diontae Johnson | PIT | (WR)
75) Tyler Lockett | SEA | (WR)
76) Jayden Reed | GB | (WR)
77) Terry McLaurin | WAS | (WR)
78) Josh Downs | IND | (WR)
79) Keaton Mitchell | BAL | (RB)
80) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | (WR)
81) Brandin Cooks | DAL | (WR)
82) Jonathan Taylor | IND | (RB)
83) Odell Beckham Jr. | BAL | (WR)
84) Dalton Kincaid | BUF | (TE)
85) C.J. Stroud | HOU | (QB)
86) D’Onta Foreman | CHI | (RB)
87) Kyler Murray | ARI | (QB)
88) Chris Godwin | TB | (WR)
89) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS | (RB)
90) David Njoku | CLE | (TE)
91) Ty Chandler | MIN | (RB)
92) Jared Goff | DET | (QB)
93) Devin Singletary | HOU | (RB)
94) Curtis Samuel | WAS | (WR)
95) Christian Watson | GB | (WR)
96) Noah Brown | HOU | (WR)
97) Adam Thielen | CAR | (WR)
98) Cole Kmet | CHI | (TE)
99) AJ Dillon | GB | (RB)
100) Aaron Jones | GB | (RB)
101) Zay Jones | JAX | (WR)
102) Tyjae Spears | TEN | (RB)
103) Jordan Addison | MIN | (WR)
104) Dallas Goedert | PHI | (TE)
105) Jordan Love | GB | (QB)
106) Sam Howell | WAS | (QB)
107) Marquise Brown | ARI | (WR)
108) Demario Douglas | NE | (WR)
109) Alexander Mattison | MIN | (RB)
110) Trevor Lawrence | JAX | (QB)
111) Isaiah Likely | BAL | (TE)
112) Gus Edwards | BAL | (RB)
113) Tee Higgins | CIN | (WR)
114) Zach Charbonnet | SEA | (RB)
115) Gabe Davis | BUF | (WR)
116) Taysom Hill | NO | (TE)
117) Antonio Gibson | WAS | (RB)
118) Jakobi Meyers | LV | (WR)
119) George Pickens | PIT | (WR)
120) Elijah Moore | CLE | (WR)
121) Jerry Jeudy | DEN | (WR)
122) Romeo Doubs | GB | (WR)
123) Russell Wilson | DEN | (QB)
124) Kyle Pitts | ATL | (TE)
125) Kareem Hunt | CLE | (RB)
126) Dalton Schultz | HOU | (TE)
127) Logan Thomas | WAS | (TE)
128) Cade Otton | TB | (TE)
129) Roschon Johnson | CHI | (RB)
130) San Francisco 49ers | SF | (DST)
131) Khalil Shakir | BUF | (WR)
132) Rashid Shaheed | NO | (WR)
133) Rico Dowdle | DAL | (RB)
134) Tyler Allgeier | ATL | (RB)
135) Buffalo Bills | BUF | (DST)
136) Matthew Stafford | LAR | (QB)
137) Tucker Kraft | GB | (TE)
138) Dameon Pierce | HOU | (RB)
139) Geno Smith | SEA | (QB)
140) Khalil Herbert | CHI | (RB)
141) Darren Waller | NYG | (TE)
142) Gardner Minshew II | IND | (QB)
143) Dallas Cowboys | DAL | (DST)
144) Jahan Dotson | WAS | (WR)
145) Jalin Hyatt | NYG | (WR)
146) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | (RB)
147) Royce Freeman | LAR | (RB)
148) Baker Mayfield | TB | (QB)
149) Pat Freiermuth | PIT | (TE)
150) Gerald Everett | LAC | (TE)
151) Latavius Murray | BUF | (RB)
152) Michael Wilson | ARI | (WR)
153) Miles Sanders | CAR | (RB)
154) Jonathan Mingo | CAR | (WR)
155) Joe Flacco | CLE | (QB)
156) Jameson Williams | DET | (WR)
157) Justin Tucker | BAL | (K)
158) Joshua Palmer | LAC | (WR)
159) Philadelphia Eagles | PHI | (DST)
160) Kenneth Gainwell | PHI | (RB)
161) New England Patriots | NE | (DST)
162) New York Jets | NYJ | (DST)
163) Rashod Bateman | BAL | (WR)
164) Denver Broncos | DEN | (DST)
165) Tutu Atwell | LAR | (WR)
166) Elijah Mitchell | SF | (RB)
167) Baltimore Ravens | BAL | (DST)
168) Jerick McKinnon | KC | (RB)
169) Tyler Conklin | NYJ | (TE)
170) Samaje Perine | DEN | (RB)
171) Jake Browning | CIN | (QB)
172) K.J. Osborn | MIN | (WR)
173) Tyler Bass | BUF | (K)
174) Michael Mayer | LV | (TE)
175) Justin Watson | KC | (WR)
176) Quentin Johnston | LAC | (WR)
177) Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | (RB)
178) Tyler Boyd | CIN | (WR)
179) Kansas City Chiefs | KC | (DST)
180) Cincinnati Bengals | CIN | (DST)
181) Hunter Henry | NE | (TE)
182) Pittsburgh Steelers | PIT | (DST)
183) Miami Dolphins | MIA | (DST)
184) Jeff Wilson Jr. | MIA | (RB)
185) Chigoziem Okonkwo | TEN | (TE)
186) Darnell Mooney | CHI | (WR)
187) Evan McPherson | CIN | (K)
188) Jamaal Williams | NO | (RB)
189) Robert Woods | HOU | (WR)
190) Desmond Ridder | ATL | (QB)
191) Jaleel McLaughlin | DEN | (RB)
192) Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG | (WR)
193) JuJu Smith-Schuster | NE | (WR)
194) Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN | (WR)
195) Michael Gallup | DAL | (WR)
196) Harrison Butker | KC | (K)
197) Justice Hill | BAL | (RB)
198) Daniel Carlson | LV | (K)
199) D’Ernest Johnson | JAX | (RB)
200) Joshua Kelley | LAC | (RB)
201) Michael Thomas | NO | (WR)
202) New Orleans Saints | NO | (DST)
203) Darius Slayton | NYG | (WR)
204) Younghoe Koo | ATL | (K)
205) Juwan Johnson | NO | (TE)
206) Josh Reynolds | DET | (WR)
207) Zamir White | LV | (RB)
208) Dontayvion Wicks | GB | (WR)
209) Tampa Bay Buccaneers | TB | (DST)
210) Dalvin Cook | NYJ | (RB)
211) Rondale Moore | ARI | (WR)
212) Cedric Tillman | CLE | (WR)
213) Jason Sanders | MIA | (K)
214) Jason Myers | SEA | (K)
215) Brandon McManus | JAX | (K)
216) Tyler Higbee | LAR | (TE)
217) Washington Commanders | WAS | (DST)
218) A.T. Perry | NO | (WR)
219) Derek Carr | NO | (QB)
220) Jake Elliott | PHI | (K)
221) Jonnu Smith | ATL | (TE)
222) Cleveland Browns | CLE | (DST)
223) Will Levis | TEN | (QB)
224) DeVante Parker | NE | (WR)
225) Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS | (RB)
226) Greg Zuerlein | NYJ | (K)
227) Greg Joseph | MIN | (K)
228) Los Angeles Chargers | LAC | (DST)
229) Indianapolis Colts | IND | (DST)
230) DJ Chark Jr. | CAR | (WR)
231) Green Bay Packers | GB | (DST)
232) Graham Gano | NYG | (K)
233) Brevin Jordan | HOU | (TE)
234) Wil Lutz | DEN | (K)
235) Los Angeles Rams | LAR | (DST)
236) Chase Brown | CIN | (RB)
237) Jacksonville Jaguars | JAX | (DST)
238) Trey Palmer | TB | (WR)
239) Jake Moody | SF | (K)
240) Marquez Valdes-Scantling | KC | (WR)
241) Matt Gay | IND | (K)
242) Atlanta Falcons | ATL | (DST)
243) Leonard Fournette | BUF | (RB)
244) Pierre Strong Jr. | CLE | (RB)
245) Brandon Aubrey | DAL | (K)
246) Donald Parham Jr. | LAC | (TE)
247) Kendre Miller | NO | (RB)
248) Luke Musgrave | GB | (TE)
249) Alec Pierce | IND | (WR)
250) Minnesota Vikings | MIN | (DST)
251) Emari Demercado | ARI | (RB)
252) Treylon Burks | TEN | (WR)
253) Tanner Hudson | CIN | (TE)
254) Cameron Dicker | LAC | (K)
255) Greg Dortch | ARI | (WR)
256) Seattle Seahawks | SEA | (DST)
257) Riley Patterson | DET | (K)
258) Dawson Knox | BUF | (TE)
259) Jalen Tolbert | DAL | (WR)
260) Las Vegas Raiders | LV | (DST)
261) Chicago Bears | CHI | (DST)
262) Dustin Hopkins | CLE | (K)
263) Salvon Ahmed | MIA | (RB)
264) Greg Dulcich | DEN | (TE)
265) Kadarius Toney | KC | (WR)
266) Blake Grupe | NO | (K)
267) Bryce Young | CAR | (QB)
268) Hunter Renfrow | LV | (WR)
269) Matt Prater | ARI | (K)
270) Trenton Irwin | CIN | (WR)
271) Cordarrelle Patterson | ATL | (RB)
272) Detroit Lions | DET | (DST)
273) Hayden Hurst | CAR | (TE)
274) Aidan O’Connell | LV | (QB)
275) Cairo Santos | CHI | (K)
276) Kylen Granson | IND | (TE)
277) Noah Fant | SEA | (TE)
278) Jordan Mason | SF | (RB)
279) Chris Boswell | PIT | (K)
280) Michael Carter | ARI | (RB)
281) Bailey Zappe | NE | (QB)
282) Ameer Abdullah | LV | (RB)
283) John Metchie III | HOU | (WR)
284) Josh Oliver | MIN | (TE)
285) Tre Tucker | LV | (WR)
286) Jake Bobo | SEA | (WR)
287) Kalif Raymond | DET | (WR)
288) Anders Carlson | GB | (K)
289) Jauan Jennings | SF | (WR)
290) Isaiah Spiller | LAC | (RB)
291) Chase McLaughlin | TB | (K)
292) Chad Ryland | NE | (K)
293) Zach Ertz | FA | (TE)
294) Patrick Taylor Jr. | GB | (RB)
295) Noah Gray | KC | (TE)
296) Malik Heath | GB | (WR)
297) Tennessee Titans | TEN | (DST)
298) Mike Gesicki | NE | (TE)
299) Ty Johnson | BUF | (RB)
300) Nick Folk | TEN | (K)
301) New York Giants | NYG | (DST)
302) Houston Texans | HOU | (DST)
303) Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | (K)
304) Chase Edmonds | TB | (RB)
305) Lucas Havrisik | LAR | (K)
306) Eddy Pineiro | CAR | (K)
307) Zach Wilson | NYJ | (QB)
308) Carolina Panthers | CAR | (DST)
309) Skyy Moore | KC | (WR)
310) Tommy Tremble | CAR | (TE)
311) Tommy DeVito | NYG | (QB)
312) Van Jefferson | ATL | (WR)
313) Adam Trautman | DEN | (TE)
314) Kenny Pickett | PIT | (QB)
315) Allen Lazard | NYJ | (WR)
316) Arizona Cardinals | ARI | (DST)
317) Joey Slye | WAS | (K)
318) Isaiah Hodgins | NYG | (WR)
319) Chris Moore | TEN | (WR)
320) Daniel Bellinger | NYG | (TE)
321) Cedrick Wilson Jr. | MIA | (WR)
322) Jalen Guyton | LAC | (WR)
323) Tyquan Thornton | NE | (WR)
324) Nelson Agholor | BAL | (WR)
325) Trayveon Williams | CIN | (RB)
326) Ronnie Rivers | LAR | (RB)
327) Julio Jones | PHI | (WR)
328) Braxton Berrios | MIA | (WR)
329) Durham Smythe | MIA | (TE)
330) Keaontay Ingram | KC | (RB)
331) Craig Reynolds | DET | (RB)
332) Tank Bigsby | JAX | (RB)
333) Matt Breida | NYG | (RB)
334) Kyle Philips | TEN | (WR)
335) Jelani Woods | IND | (TE)
336) Boston Scott | PHI | (RB)
337) Tony Jones Jr. | ARI | (RB)
338) Donovan Peoples-Jones | DET | (WR)
339) Deonte Harty | BUF | (WR)
340) Parris Campbell | NYG | (WR)
341) Calvin Austin III | PIT | (WR)
342) Luke Schoonmaker | DAL | (TE)
343) Andrew Ogletree | IND | (TE)
344) Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ | (TE)
345) Foster Moreau | NO | (TE)
346) Zach Evans | LAR | (RB)
347) Deuce Vaughn | DAL | (RB)
348) Terrace Marshall Jr. | CAR | (WR)
349) Damien Harris | BUF | (RB)
350) Myles Gaskin | MIN | (RB)
351) Rashaad Penny | PHI | (RB)
352) Cole Turner | WAS | (TE)
353) Tyrod Taylor | NYG | (QB)
354) Israel Abanikanda | NYJ | (RB)
355) Mecole Hardman Jr. | KC | (WR)
356) Kayshon Boutte | NE | (WR)
357) Irv Smith Jr. | CIN | (TE)
358) Justyn Ross | KC | (WR)
359) Dyami Brown | WAS | (WR)
360) Julian Hill | MIA | (TE)
361) Brandon Johnson | DEN | (WR)
362) Jordan Akins | CLE | (TE)
363) Richie James Jr. | KC | (WR)
364) Jalen Nailor | MIN | (WR)
365) Chase Claypool | MIA | (WR)
366) Melvin Gordon III | BAL | (RB)
367) Robert Tonyan | CHI | (TE)
368) Allen Robinson II | PIT | (WR)
369) Mack Hollins | ATL | (WR)
370) Joshua Dobbs | MIN | (QB)
371) Chris Evans | CIN | (RB)
372) Nick Mullens | MIN | (QB)
373) DeeJay Dallas | SEA | (RB)
374) Brenton Strange | JAX | (TE)
375) Demarcus Robinson | LAR | (WR)
376) Austin Hooper | LV | (TE)
377) Mike Boone | HOU | (RB)
378) Kene Nwangwu | MIN | (RB)
379) Randall Cobb | NYJ | (WR)
380) Mitch Trubisky | PIT | (QB)
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