The 2023 fantasy football season is back and better than ever as drafts fire off across the nation. It’s now time to dive into Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert’s 2023 fantasy football projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can Herbert recapture the magic of his first two seasons, and should he be a player you draft this year?
Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — the Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
Justin Herbert’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
There’s no question that Herbert is one of the more talented players out there and a face of the league. But after a QB10 and QB2 finish in Years 1 and 2, respectively, to start his career, fantasy managers were left a little disappointed in Year 3.
Completing 447 of 699 attempts, Herbert threw for 4,739 yards with 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He also only rushed for 147 yards on 54 carries and didn’t find the end zone, which did have a noticeable impact on his ceiling.
Although Herbert did finish 11th overall and 15th in points per game, there were declines across the board in yards per game, yards per attempt, and touchdown rate. It’s not all bad, though, nor is Herbert some overrated QB like some would have you believe.
Herbert completed a career-best 68.2% of his throws which was 1.3% above expectation. His 1.4% interception rate was at the lowest of his career. He also averaged 41.1 attempts per game and led all quarterbacks in completion percentage when pressured.
Herbert just wasn’t aggressive. His average depth of target dropped from 7.8 in 2021 to 6.5 in 2022. That’s why his yards per game fell from 295 to 279. In fairness, L.A.’s offense as a whole massively regressed in 2022, scoring just 41 touchdowns compared to 56 the year prior.
Offseason Additions Will Play a Large Role for Herbert In 2023
That is something I expect to change in a big way in 2023. The Chargers were one of the fantasy communities’ top teams to land an early wide receiver, and they did just that, drafting TCU standout WR Quentin Johnston in the first round.
A big-body receiver with considerable potential, Johnston brings that vertical threat to the Chargers’ offense and pairs well with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. He’s also depth in case of a potential injury — which happens quite often here. Both Johnston and Joshua Palmer would be able to step up and play more prominent roles.
However, the most impactful move of the offseason was the Chargers bringing in former Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to fill the same spot.
I could not love this pairing more if I tried. Herbert thrives pushing the ball vertically, and he’s one of the better QBs at reading leverage in the deep third. It’s also what Moore specializes in schematically.
So much of what he did with Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb was attacking vertically with scheme concepts that rely on a quarterback with good decision-making and a strong, accurate arm that can beat safeties before the window closes 20 yards downfield. If that doesn’t scream Herbert, I don’t know what does.
After a year where QB plays slightly dropped off across the league, I expect that to bounce back in a big way in 2023 while giving fantasy managers no shortage of draftable quarterbacks. Herbert is right there in the middle of them all, and given the volume and upside this offense brings, his projections reflect the aggressive outlook.
My initial runs have Herbert crossing the 5,000-yard mark and playing much closer to his 2021 season, where he had 38 touchdowns through the air and 302 yards on the ground. I’d comfortably pencil him in for 35 TDs passing and a handful rushing with a realistic shot at a top-four finish in 2023.
Should You Draft Justin Herbert This Year?
ADP will play a significant factor in whether or not you should draft Herbert for your fantasy football team in 2023. From a talent standpoint, that’s not debatable. There are also no questions about the expected volume.
Los Angeles threw on 66% of their plays, which was +4.3% over expectation, and had one of the highest rates of 3+ WR formations in the league. There’s also no chance the Chargers finish 30th in yardage to the sticks at -2.3 yards.
I haven’t always been a proponent of early quarterback in fantasy football draft strategy, but having a difference-making signal-caller rather than just a “middle-of-the-road get-me-by-player” is a sizable vantage.
Luckily for us, Herbert will likely come off the board around QB7. Depending on how aggressively your league values the position, Herbert will be somewhere around the beginning of Round 5 to the end of Round 6, most likely.
That’s fantastic, as you’re getting all of the upside of the upper-echelon QBs while being able to wait a couple of extra rounds from the group grabbing Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow. At cost, Herbert is likely a better value than all of them if the 2023 season goes the way we (or at least I) think that he can.
If Herbert’s ADP remains in this range, I feel very confident in saying that. Similar to Hurts last year for me, Herbert will be my most rostered QB for fantasy football this year.