Justin Herbert has spent the first four years of his career in an extremely passing-friendly offense. Now moving to a more run-heavy approach, can the Los Angeles Chargers quarterback still be a QB1 in fantasy football? What does his projection say?
Justin Herbert’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 16.1
- Passing Yards: 3,812
- Pass TDs: 24.5
- Rushing Yards: 206
- Rush TDs: 1.9
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Herbert This Year?
Herbert is a very interesting fantasy option this season. We know his upside. This is still the same guy who averaged 22.9 and 23.3 fantasy points per game (ppg) in his first two seasons. The past two haven’t been quite as good, though.
Last year, Herbert rebounded slightly from a down 2022 that saw him average just 17.1 ppg, but 18.6 ppg is not exactly what fantasy managers were looking for. It was even more disheartening, given how hot Herbert was to start the season.
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Herbert scored between 20.1 and 29.3 fantasy points in each of the first five games of last season. For Herbert to only average 18.6 ppg after that start evidences how much his performance dipped from Week 6 onward. It ended unceremoniously with a broken finger costing him the final month of the season.
From a talent standpoint, I still believe Herbert to easily be one of the 10 best QBs in the NFL. In a different environment, he could be a top-five fantasy QB. On this year’s version of the Chargers, it’s difficult to project him to even be a QB1.
I have Herbert projected for what is essentially a career-low 556 pass attempts (he would’ve blown past this had he not missed the final four games of last season). Last year, Herbert only averaged 241.1 passing yards per game. I have him at 4,063 total yards, which comes out to 239 per game, also a career low.
The unfortunate reality is new head coach Jim Harbaugh is basically a lock to turn this team into a run-first offense. Harbaugh’s teams run the ball. According to NBC Sports’ Denny Carter, Harbaugh’s 49ers teams ranked 31st, 31st, 32nd, and 29th in pass attempts, respectively, from 2011-2014. His last two Michigan teams ranked 117th and 121st, respectively, out of 130 teams in pass rate.
Let’s examine the Chargers’ offseason personnel moves too. They lost Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Their key WR additions were journeyman DJ Chark Jr. and draft acquisition Ladd McConkey. That’s quite the downgrade overall.
They lost Austin Ekeler, one of the best pass-catching RBs of all time. To replace him, they signed two-down grinder Gus Edwards, the oft-injured J.K. Dobbins, and drafted Kimani Vidal on Day 3.
In my projections, Herbert comes out as just the QB19, averaging 17.34 fantasy ppg. He’s the QB18 in the PFN consensus projections, which is one spot below his ADP. Currently, we are not baking in any missed time. However, I would be lying if I said Herbert’s foot injury wasn’t at least a little bit concerning.
This is the cheapest Herbert’s ever been in his career — and quite possibly the cheapest he will ever be. All of the information we have points to a low-volume year from Herbert.
With that said, Harbaugh’s offenses have never been bad. If this offense is better than we think, even with low volume, Herbert could still throw 30+ touchdowns. Plus, it’s not like he offers nothing in terms of mobility. The potential is still there.
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If you completely punt the QB position, I really don’t hate the idea of taking a chance on Herbert. We know he has the talent to finish in the top five at his position. There’s always a chance we’re wrong about how the Chargers will operate offensively or whether they have the players to execute their preferred game plan. What if their running backs are ineffective, forcing them to throw more?
I have Herbert ranked as my QB17. It feels low, but the combination of the run-heavy scheme and my concern regarding his foot injury is enough to push him near do-not-draft territory. In deeper leagues where you can afford to draft two QBs, perhaps he’s not a bad option to throw on your bench behind a more volatile starter. But I am likely looking elsewhere.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Insight on Justin Herbert
All of the changes to the Chargers coaching staff and offense side of the roster have certainly had a big impact on Herbert’s ADP from just a year ago. He is currently going at No. 113 overall as the QB16 off the board in the 10th round. For some additional context, he is being selected after Jared Goff, Tua Tagovailoa, and rookie Caleb Williams.
That is a pretty far fall from grace for a player entering his fifth year in the NFL with a nice track record of production on the football field.
Yet, concerns about Herbert’s collection of pass-catching options and a shift in offensive philosophy to a more run-first team are legitimate when trying to sort through his fantasy upside in 2024.
There is no denying the talent has always been there for Herbert, and he still possesses great fantasy upside even in a less-than-ideal situation entering this season. The real problem with this ADP is the current depth of the quarterback position as a whole.
The eighth round still has players like Zack Moss, Jaylen Warren, and Raheem Mostert available.
Personally, I’d rather wait another couple and live with Jayden Daniels, Matthew Stafford, or Kirk Cousins to roll with as my quarterback and potentially stream the position than select Herbert in the eighth round when Flex options with nice upside are still available.