Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert has piled up impressive numbers through his first four NFL seasons. Since 2020, only Patrick Mahomes has more 300-yard games, and Herbert has shown enough mobility to have the interest of fantasy football managers annually (over 12% of his points have come on the ground in three separate seasons).
Those counting numbers are great, but with fewer weapons at his disposal and what appears to be a shift to an offense with more balance (top-10 in pass rate over expectation in back-to-back-to-back seasons), the industry is casting him aside.
Is that the move, or does that create the rare chance to get a discount on a talent that we trust?
Justin Herbert’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Just 12 months after flirting with top-5 status at the position in terms of ADP, Herbert is routinely falling outside the top 15 quarterbacks drafted this summer, often going undrafted in shallower leagues.
Justin Herbert through 4 seasons:
⚡️ 1,613 completions (most all-time)
⚡️17,223 passing yards (most all-time)
⚡️ 114 passing TDs (2nd most all-time)
⚡️125 total TDs (3rd all-time)
⚡️25 games with 300+ passing yards (3rd all-time)(https://t.co/7Sy8lzxOYe) pic.twitter.com/Nab6rQB7IZ
— Ahmed/The Ears/IG: BigBizTheGod 🇸🇴 (@big_business_) July 29, 2024
The pessimism is understandable. Gone are Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, a tandem that has accounted for 40.4% of Herbert’s career passing yards and 36.8% of his touchdowns through the air.
We’d be able to overlook those departures if the franchise showed urgency to replenish the position, but instead of leveraging the fifth overall pick and rebuilding the skill positions, the Bolts picked up a high-pedigree tackle in Joe Alt. It’s very possible that proves to be the right pick when all is said and done, but we are in the business of projecting 2024 stat lines and that pick could have been used to buoy Herbert’s value.
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But it wasn’t.
He’s now counting on an inexperienced receiver room that includes rookie Ladd McConkey as the favorite to lead the team in targets, Joshua Palmer, DJ Chark, and everyone’s favorite social media punching bag, Quentin Johnston. Add that to a complete 180 at the running back position (Gus Edwards has 37 career targets, while the departed Austin Ekeler caught 51 passes in a down 2023) and it’s more than fair to wonder about the upside of Herbert.
While I believe that Herbert is talented enough to be reasonably efficient on his passes, my concern is the volume. In an era where the vast majority of teams prioritize the passing game, the Chargers continue to tell us that they want to play a vintage style where they bloody the nose of their opponent.
That is likely their path to remaining competitive, but it’s just not going to make their signal-caller of much use to us in single QB leagues. For his career, Herbert averages 39.1 pass attempts per game:
- When throwing 40+ passes: 20.8 FPPG
- When throwing 35 or fewer passes: 14.7 FPPG
That’s a wholly unsurprising stat, and while I’m not suggesting that this Chargers team is going to average under 30 pass attempts per game (although, four teams did do that last season), it’s very possible Herbert finishes this season with more games in that bucket than the 40+ one.
The quarterback position is as deep as it’s ever been from a fantasy perspective, and that has Herbert off my radar. Even if you’re going to make the argument for him in a Superflex setting, how much different is his profile that that of Aaron Rodgers (20-pick discount) or Baker Mayfield (35-pick discount)?
You’re paying for a name and not 2024 production – that’s a dangerous game to play at the game’s highest-scoring position.
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Analysis For Justin Herbert
Herbert is a very interesting fantasy option this season. We know his upside. This is still the same guy who averaged 22.9 and 23.3 fantasy points per game (ppg) in his first two seasons. The past two haven’t been quite as good, though.
Last year, Herbert rebounded slightly from a down 2022 that saw him average just 17.1 ppg, but 18.6 ppg is not exactly what fantasy managers were looking for. It was even more disheartening, given how hot Herbert was to start the season.
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Herbert scored between 20.1 and 29.3 fantasy points in each of the first five games of last season. For Herbert to only average 18.6 ppg after that start evidences how much his performance dipped from Week 6 onward. It ended unceremoniously with a broken finger costing him the final month of the season.
From a talent standpoint, I still believe Herbert to easily be one of the 10 best QBs in the NFL. In a different environment, he could be a top-five fantasy QB. On this year’s version of the Chargers, it’s difficult to project him to even be a QB1.