Fantasy football managers must always be ready for shifts in player value. Many players changed teams in free agency. While Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert was not one of them, his dynasty value was definitely impacted by the medley of transactions.
After largely underwhelming each of the past two years, and with a new head coach and his third offensive coordinator in as many years, where does Herbert’s dynasty value stand heading into 2024?
Justin Herbert’s Dynasty Outlook
Last season, Herbert was my guy at quarterback. If I couldn’t get one of the Big Three, I wanted Herbert.
Things were looking pretty good for the first five games of the season. Herbert scored between 20.1 and 29.3 fantasy points in each game. Then, in Week 7, his play started to dip.
Herbert would still give fantasy managers three more elite QB1 games of 24.0, 29.4, and 25.7 fantasy points. However, he also had four games where he was unstartable, plus a fifth where he broke his finger, ending his season.
It’s difficult to evaluate how good Herbert actually is. When he is on, he looks as good as anyone. After all, this is the same guy who posted 22.9 and 23.3 fantasy points per game in each of his first two seasons.
A big part of why I was bullish on Herbert in 2023 was because of how strange his 2022 season was. He threw for 4,739 yards and completed a career-high 68.2% of his passes. Yet, he only averaged 17.1 fantasy points per game. Why? He somehow threw just 25 touchdowns. With some natural touchdown regression, he was poised to be much better in 2023.
Herbert’s touchdown rate ticked back up from 3.6% to 4.4% in 2023, but his yards per game dropped by 37.8. He only averaged 18.6 fantasy points per game.
Now, the Chargers are not only in the midst of a rebuild, but they are almost certainly in the midst of a rebrand.
For the duration of Herbert’s tenure as the Chargers’ starting QB, they’ve been a pass-first offense. Last year, the Chargers ranked seventh with a 59% neutral game script pass rate. They also played at the fastest pace in the league. Things are likely to change under the new regime.
Harbaugh’s teams run the ball. According to NBC Sports’ Denny Carter, Harbaugh’s 49ers teams ranked 31st, 31st, 32nd, and 29th in pass attempts, respectively, from 2011-2014. His last two Michigan teams ranked 117th and 121st, respectively, out of 130 teams in pass rate.
On a positive note, Harbaugh has won everywhere he’s coached. If we are to buy that the Chargers will be more successful, they should, in theory, score more points. Touchdowns can cure all volume concerns in fantasy football. Regardless, there’s definitely a reason for slight concern toward Herbert.
That touchdown rate is going to have to skyrocket for him to remain a fantasy QB1. Between the hiring of Harbaugh and the Chargers’ offseason moves, it’s clear where this team is headed.
Herbert has only known Keenan Allen and Mike Williams as his top two receivers. He’s only known Austin Ekeler as his elite pass-catching RB1. Now, all three of them are on different teams.
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Herbert’s splits with and without his receivers are still solid. He’s averaged 19.5 fantasy points per game in 17 games without Williams and 20.8 points per game in 10 games without Allen. But those numbers are 3.5 and 2.5 points per game lower than when he has them on the field. And, again, those were offenses that threw the ball a ton.
The Chargers undoubtedly will select a wide receiver within the first three rounds of the 2024 NFL Draft. But as we saw with Quentin Johnston in the first round last year, that doesn’t mean it will help.
Herbert is poised to enter the season with Joshua Palmer and a rookie as his top two receivers. With the Chargers’ main offensive addition being running back Gus Edwards, we are looking at an offense with an entirely new identity.
Herbert’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Herbert land in the dynasty QB landscape going into the next step of the 2024 offseason? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, examining where Herbert ranks in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Patrick Mahomes | KC
2) Josh Allen | BUF
3) Jalen Hurts | PHI
4) Lamar Jackson | BAL
5) Joe Burrow | CIN
6) C.J. Stroud | HOU
7) Justin Herbert | LAC
8) Dak Prescott | DAL
9) Anthony Richardson | IND
10) Kyler Murray | ARI
11) Caleb Williams | FA
12) Brock Purdy | SF
13) Tua Tagovailoa | MIA
14) Trevor Lawrence | JAX
15) Jordan Love | GB
16) Jayden Daniels | FA
17) Drake Maye | FA
18) Justin Fields | PIT
19) Jared Goff | DET
20) Bryce Young | CAR
21) Kirk Cousins | ATL
22) J.J. McCarthy | FA
23) Matthew Stafford | LAR
24) Deshaun Watson | CLE
Should You Trade Herbert in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Herbert? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offers to make in seconds!
My outlook on quarterbacks in fantasy football is that I want one of the elite ones. I want that guy who I know isn’t going to fail me just about ever. I thought Herbert could be one of those guys. The last two seasons have proven he isn’t.
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But even amid all the changes, Herbert is a clear franchise quarterback. At 26 years old, it’s just not possible to rank him much lower than where he is. The Chargers will eventually fix their WR situation. Is it worth trading away a guy who should play at a high level for the next 10-12 years because of the next two?
Herbert is signed through the 2029 season. He is not going anywhere. Now, he has a winning coach, albeit in what should be a run-first offense. Unless you’re getting a clear upgrade at the position, fantasy managers should hang onto Herbert and hope he has a Brock Purdy-like touchdown rate.
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