The fantasy football outlook for Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields is somewhat clouded based on the uncertainty of if and when he will become the starter in Chicago. However, with many expecting that he will be the starter during the 2021 season, should you be looking to draft Fields at his current ADP?
Justin Fields’ fantasy outlook for 2021
Despite being selected as the QB4 with the No. 11 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Fields could easily finish as the QB1 of the class.
Fields brings a dynamic aspect to the position that only a select few can match. And of those QBs, Andy Dalton is certainly not one of them. The former Ohio State QB flourished as a sophomore completing 238 of 354 passes (67.2%) for 3,272 yards and 41 touchdowns to 3 interceptions. He also added 137 rushes for 484 yards and 10 scores. That performance earned the true sophomore a third-place finish in the 2019 Heisman voting behind Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts.
Fields finished the shortened 2020 season with 2,100 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and added 383 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns on the ground. He repeated as the Big Ten’s Offensive Player of the Year and unanimous first-team All-Big Ten selection.
Fields has a cannon for an arm and throws one of the best deep balls of the class, which is music to the ears of Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney. Throw in Fields’ athleticism (4.44 40-yard dash) and we could see incredible stats right out of the gate. That is, once HC Matt Nagy opens said gate. I don’t doubt that Fields will be the starter — the question is when?
Personally, I believe it will happen sooner than some think, potentially as early as Week 3 if the Bears get off to a slow start. Fields is a “draft and hold” in 1QB and superflex formats. His fantasy outlook is based on when the change happens. Given the potential upside, Fields is worth stashing on your bench as potentially the next breakout fantasy QB.
Justin Fields’ fantasy projection
When you create projections, you have to build a narrative. What is the team in question going to look like in 2021? How do the players mesh, coaches, strength of schedule, losses/additions, etc.? I bring this up for the Bears as there are more questions than answers.
For starters, at some point, there will be a change at QB from Dalton to Fields. This could happen in training camp, but HC Matt Nagy has all but said this is Dalton’s job. More than likely, it occurs during the season once the crowd in Soldier Field grows restless. Once that change is made, the offense completely shifts on its head to feature a big-armed, dual-threat QB.
Issue No. 2 is that Nagy (and even GM Ryan Pace) are likely losing their jobs. They are both on the hot seat, and it’s hard to envision them surviving the 2021 season. I am already looking forward to Joe Brady coaching Fields in 2022, but that’s a topic for a different time. If Nagy were ousted, it would mean a change in play calling.
The issue with all of this is trying to nail when this change happens. While I think it happens somewhat quickly, it’s possible Dalton plays well and holds him off. In games in which Dalton started and finished, he was the QB18 with 19.8 ppg, averaging 24.7 of 37.7 passing for 247.8 yards and 1.75 passing TDs. That’s…not awful.
In the end, I think Fields’ undeniable talent and pressure to get in the win column wins out. Fields plays in 14 games (13 starts) in early projections and attempts approximately 480 passes with 3,300 to 3,500 yards with 22 TDs. He projects for an additional 420 to 440 yards rushing and 4 more scores.
Justin Fields’ fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Fields is currently the QB16, going undrafted in 1QB formats and a 122.2 ADP in superflex formats. Likewise, on Fantasy Football Calculator, he is also going as the QB21 at 155.7 ADP. Meanwhile, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Fields is the QB20 with a 146.9 ADP.
Should you draft Fields in 2021 for fantasy?
There has been a pattern brewing the past few years with championship-winning fantasy teams — finding the young breakout QB. In 2018, it was Patrick Mahomes. In 2019, Lamar Jackson. Last year, it was Josh Allen and Kyler Murray.
This year, it might very well be Fields who continues this pattern — all of the traits are there. With an NFL-caliber arm, Fields can make all the throws. Furthermore, he has dynamic playmaking ability and the capability to dissect a defense.
Even if it takes until midseason for Fields to become the starter, he could be the perfect QB you need for the playoff and championship push.
Tommy Garrett is a writer for Pro Football Network covering the NFL and fantasy football and a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association). You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.