One of the more athletically gifted quarterbacks in the NFL and fantasy football, Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields projects to be a late pick as his ceiling is being lowered by the roster around him more than anything. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Fields’ fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP?
Justin Fields’ fantasy outlook for 2022
I want Fields to show his skill set in 2022, but this will not be an easy feat as the Bears might be one of the worst teams in the NFL. With that said, Fields is entering Year 2 and showed growth over the back half of last year, which could be a sign of things to come if Fields continues to develop the skills which made him the No. 11 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Fields lacked consistency in the early portion of the season, not only in play on the field but even getting on it as the Bears went with Andy Dalton to open the season. But even when on it, the impact of Matt Nagy plus apparent awful practice structures never placed Fields in a place to succeed.
In the nine games where Fields played at least 95% of the snaps, he completed 16 of 27 passes for 191 yards with a 1:1 TD-to-INT ratio. The only upside was his rushing ability, averaging just over 40 yards a game. For those keeping score, that is an average fantasy total of 12.6 PPR/game.
However, over his last five starts, Fields found his rhythm in the NFL. He was a top-12 QB (17.2 PPR/game), averaging 56 rushing yards and 243 passing yards. Over his final seven starts, Fields averaged 7.4 attempts for 51.6 yards per game on the ground. Push that out over a season, and it would be 877 rush yards. Those are numbers we can work with for fantasy, without a doubt.
The issue is the Bears, outside of replacing Nagy, did nothing to help him. They even bucked the trend by hiring a defensive-minded head coach in Matt Eberflus, placing the offensive duties and Fields’ development on Luke Getsy, formerly of the Packers.
If you placed Fields on any other roster, he would be a top-10 QB, garnering similar hype as Trey Lance is for the 49ers. While I want to believe in Fields, I am worried he could struggle once again.
How the Bears’ depth chart impacts Justin Fields’ fantasy projection for the season
I was not kidding when I said the Bears could be bad. This depth chart might be worse than the 2008 0-16 Detroit Lions. Sure, that’s harsh, but it is the honest truth. They have a better shot of locking up the No. 1 pick than winning eight games.
David Montgomery should be busy again and had Khalil Herbert and a flashy Trestan Ebner behind him. Unfortunately, just like Fields, they will find sledding tough behind maybe the worst offensive line in the NFL. It’s a good thing Fields knows how to scramble. Funny enough, reports came out that was something Nagy didn’t even practice last year because why not, right?
At receiver, Allen Robinson is gone, not that Fields ever really saw him last year. Marquise Godwin and Damiere Byrd also left the nest. Outside of Cole Kmet (93), the next highest returning Bears pass catcher in targets (non-RB) was Dazz Newsome before they just released him. Now, it’s, and I kid you not, Isaiah Coulter with one solitary target.
Rather than reloading their offense to support their franchise QB, the Bears replaced their multi-time 1,000-yard receiver with a 25-year-old kick returner from Tennessee and the Kansas City Chiefs’ former WR4.
Literally, this is the Darnell Mooney show, with Kmet doing his best to play the No. 2 role. Mooney was 31st in PPR points per game due to the offense’s inefficiency, not by his own skill set. Despite finishing 11th in targets (140), Mooney was tied 18th in receptions (81) and 17th in yards (1,055), converting just 71% of his air yards (1,480) into actual yards. Last year, he saw 34.8% of the air yards and 27.3% of the targets.
Given how often Fields will be running for his life, the likelihood of broken plays turning into significant gains goes up as Mooney works to get open. But is this a depth chart that fills you with any level of confidence?
Fields’ ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 127, Fields is coming off the board as the QB17 in 1QB formats, placing him in the 11th round in 12-team fantasy leagues. In Superflex leagues, Fields is typically drafted around the third round.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Fields is the QB18 as the 157th player overall. I am a bit lower on Fields, as he is the QB19 and 152nd overall player in my rankings.
I want Fields to break out in 2022. The NFL and fantasy are more fun with QBs like him in the game. But I don’t see Fields as a starting-caliber passer at the moment. I typically do not draft multiple QBs in 1QB formats but if you have the roster space and believe the rushing upside can offset the passing struggles, then draft him as an upside replacement option to use when he has the better matchup.
In Superflex leagues, Fields is in the QB2 range but is outside where I like to draft my second signal-caller. I like to have that locked up by the Kirk Cousins or Derek Carr tier, as there is a significant drop-off in weekly stability. Even in his own range, I prefer Jameis Winston, Trevor Lawrence, or Matt Ryan. As I said, I hope Fields plays well, but I will watch from afar as I don’t want to place my team’s playoff chances on this Bears team.