Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields burst onto the fantasy football scene last season, ranking seventh in the NFL with 1,143 rushing yards. He averaged just as many yards per pass as he did yards per rush (7.1), and that provided a nice weekly floor that guided him to a QB5 finish for the season.
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Justin Fields’ Fantasy Outlook
Thanks to game-breaking athletic abilities, Fields has earned the trust of the franchise as their quarterback of the future. So much so that the team elected to trade the first overall pick to get him a legitimate WR1 in the form of DJ Moore and proceeded to use the 10th overall on a mountain of a tackle in Tennessee’s Darnell Wright (6’5”, 333 pounds).
The addition of Moore not only adds a receiver that is talented, but it puts the other primary receivers (Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool) back in their comfort zone as field stretchers. Cole Kmet returns at the tight end position after a 2022 season that saw him develop a nice connection with Fields (73.2% catch rate and six touchdowns).
In the backfield, D’Onta Foreman comes over from Carolina to help fill the gap left by David Montgomery. Foreman will pair with Khalil Herbert in the run game, though while both have shown flashes of upside, neither figures to help Fields much as a pass catcher.
How Sustainable Is Fields’ 2022 Breakout?
In July, Fields made waves when he ranked himself alongside Cam Newton, Michael Vick, Lamar Jackson, and Steve Young as a top-five rushing quarterback of all-time. Any time a 24-year-old puts himself on an all-time list, it’s going to be met with resistance (as it should be), but are we sure he was wrong?
At the very least, his 2022 season is on the shortlist when it comes to the most impressive rushing campaigns by a QB in league history. Consider this: Since 2000, three quarterbacks have had four runs of 50-plus yards on their NFL resume. Newton and Vick are on that list. And so is Fields, after he did it four times … in the second half of last season!
Of course, plays like that aren’t exactly sustainable, but the fact that he is capable of a stat like that speaks to what we are dealing with here. Fields ran at least six times in every game he played last season and reached double figures in the majority of his outings, an offensive strategy that elevates his floor to a level only the elite quarterbacks can touch.
You would think defenses would gradually crack the code and limit him getting loose … but that never happened last season:
- Games 1-8: 9.5 carries per game, 5.6 yards per carry
- Games 9-15: 12.0 carries per game, 8.6 yards per carry
Any time a player records a historic season, some regression is to be expected. You could argue the same is true here, given that the Bears have more offensive depth this season, thus redistributing touches from what we saw a season ago.
With all of that said, nothing in Fields’ profile suggests that his ability to produce chunk plays with his legs is fluky, so while it is wise to project some regression, the rushing numbers will continue to be elite.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Fields at His ADP?
*Hot take alert*
Is it possible that the acquisition of Moore could hurt Fields’ value? Sure, it was a good move for the Bears. I wouldn’t argue that. But you don’t bring in a possession receiver like Moore to throw fewer passes, do you? Note the following about Fields’ stats in 2022:
- Fantasy points per pass: 0.43
- Fantasy points per rush: 1.01
Of course, we are expecting the value per pass to increase this season, but you see where I’m going … what is good for the team isn’t always great for fantasy football.
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I wanted to make that point, but even a skeptic won’t knock Fields out of Tier 2, a ranking at the position that has him being drafted in the fourth round. That’s the same range as Justin Herbert. I’ve yet to land a Fields share this offseason, but that’s more a product of me passing on the position in that range than any disdain for Fields himself.