NFL free agency wastes little time. Shortly after the Seahawks took Sam Darnold off the market, the Jets locked in their 2025 starting quarterback, signing Justin Fields to a two-year deal. What does this move mean for the fantasy football values of Fields and Garrett Wilson?
Fantasy Impact of Justin Fields Signing With the Jets
Last season, it was abundantly clear that Justin Fields was one of the 32 best quarterbacks in the NFL. He deserved a starting job after going 4-2 in six stars for the Steelers before getting unjustifiably benched for Russell Wilson. Now, to be fair, it was probably the right move in hindsight. However, Fields certainly did not do anything to warrant losing his job.
After the Steelers’ season ended with yet another first-round playoff exit, reports quickly surfaced that both Wilson and Fields would not be back in 2025. It was going to be one or neither, but not both, and the more likely candidate to return would be the younger Fields.
Ahead of free agency, Fields was open to re-signing with the Steelers but wanted a guarantee that he would be the starter. Pittsburgh was unwilling to make that promise, leading to Fields testing the open market, and quickly agreeing to terms with the Jets, where he was presumably promised the starting role.
https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1899168443451990151
This is a pretty good landing spot for Fields. For a guy with his skill set, where he ended up wasn’t going to have a huge impact on his own fantasy value. Fields’ value comes from his mobility. He’s going to run no matter what team he is on. The most important factor was whether he would start, which was always going to be the case for his 2025 team.
Last season, Fields started the first six games for the Steelers and averaged 19 fantasy points per game, including a 32-point overall QB1 performance in Week 4 against the Colts. Fields averaged 18.4 ppg in 2023 and 20.5 ppg in 2022. Every time he’s started, he’s been a fantasy QB1.
Fields earned a C or C+ rating in PFN’s QB+ metric in all but one of his 2024 starts. No one is claiming Fields is an elite NFL QB. But for fantasy, he should be viewed as QB1 this season. Yet, I highly doubt he will be drafted as one, making him potentially one of the best late-round QB options for this season.
Garrett Wilson
The Jets don’t have a clear WR2 at the moment. They also don’t have a fantasy-relevant tight end. It’s just Garrett Wilson, who is coming off the best season of his career, averaging 14.8 fantasy points per game. In reality, it could’ve been even better.
Wilson averaged 16.57 fantasy points per game before Davante Adams arrived. He was at 14.3 ppg after Adams joined the team. Most importantly, though, was the drop in volume. Wilson averaged 11 targets per game without Adams against just 7.91 targets per game with him.
On the surface, this may look like a downgrade. Sure, not having Adams as target competition is a plus, but Fields has to be considered a step down from Aaron Rodgers, right? In terms of the Jets’ chances of winning games, maybe. For Wilson’s fantasy value, give me Fields all day.
Fields is not exactly the most cerebral quarterback. He’s a one-read take-off-and-run guy. Fields will look for his primary target, which, most of the time, will be Wilson. If he’s not there, Fields will be more apt to scramble than go through his progressions.
As a reminder, D.J. Moore had his best season with Fields as his QB1. In 2023, Moore averaged 16.9 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR9. He earned a 28.9% target share but was only targeted on 23.4% of his routes run.
It’s fair to say Wilson is a better wide receiver. While it remains to be seen who the Jets add at WR, right now, Wilson has less target competition than Moore did in Chicago in 2023. Wilson could easily see a 30% target share, something he’s already done once in his career (also in 2023).
For each of the past two seasons, the fantasy community has baked a significant leap in production into Wilson’s price tag. He’s been a 1/2 turn pick in both years despite never having produced at a level justifying it.
This year, Wilson’s price may finally fall into the third round when, ironically, he’s best positioned to actually live up to the lofty expectations that have been placed on him.
If Wilson can’t post a WR1 season (16+ ppg) this year, it’s probably never going to happen. With the arrival of Fields, I’m cautiously optimistic it finally does. If Wilson is priced outside the top 12 WRs, he could actually be a value for the first time since his rookie season.