As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty value of Justin Fields.
Justin Fields’ Dynasty Outlook and Value
After a truly awful rookie season, there were legitimate questions as to whether Fields would make it as an NFL starting quarterback. In 12 starts, he completed 58.9% of his passes and averaged 11.4 fantasy points per game. For a guy who was supposed to have a high floor, he was barely a fantasy QB3.
Unsurprisingly, Fields’ 2022 fantasy stock plummeted. Anyone who remained on the Fields train likely hopped off after the first month of the season after seeing more of the same. Fields averaged 10.4 ppg through Week 4 — somehow even worse than his rookie season.
Then, in Week 5, everything changed. It’s like a switch flipped. After being unstartable even in two-quarterback leagues, Fields suddenly morphed into an elite QB1.
From Week 5 through the end of the season, Fields averaged 24.1 ppg. He was the overall QB3, ahead of guys like Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. In fact, Fields was closer to Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes than he was to the QB5 or lower.
For dynasty managers, the key to assessing Fields’ value is understanding why he was so good to determine if it’s repeatable. From a passing standpoint, Fields didn’t improve all that much. His completion percentage jumped 1.5%, and his yards per attempt increased by just 0.2%. The key to Fields’ success was being fully unleashed as a runner.
MORE: 2023 Dynasty Rookie Rankings
As a rookie, Fields averaged 35 rushing yards per game. That spiked to 76.2 per game last season. Fields’ 1,143 rushing yards led all quarterbacks. He fell just 61 yards short of Lamar Jackson’s single-season record set in 2019. Had Fields played all 17 games, he undoubtedly would’ve gotten there.
The most encouraging part of Fields’ ascent, at least from a fantasy perspective, is he did it with one of the weakest supporting casts in NFL history. That’s not an exaggeration. Fields entered the season with Darnell Mooney as his WR1. By the end of the season, the Bears were rolling out an 11-personnel group of Chase Claypool, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Dante Pettis. Imagine if the Bears get Fields a true No. 1 receiver?
There is one wrinkle in Fields’ dynasty value that is difficult to account for. Chicago possesses the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. They basically have two options. They can trade the pick to a QB-needy team for a king’s ransom, or they can trade Fields and draft the quarterback themselves.
The good news is it’s hard to envision a scenario where Fields goes somewhere, and his situation gets worse. Even if he went to Houston or Indianapolis, both of those teams have better supporting casts than what Fields had last season in Chicago.
Update: The Bears traded the first overall pick to a QB-needy team. They got a king’s ransom. And most importantly, Fields got his true No. 1 receiver in DJ Moore. This has me even more bullish on Fields going forward.
Justin Fields’ Fantasy Ranking
I don’t know if Fields will ever become a top-10 NFL quarterback. I don’t know if an NFL team can win with him. He’s young, but he makes a lot of mistakes and struggles under pressure. What I do know is that as long as Fields is allowed to run, he’ll be a high-floor, high-ceiling QB1 in fantasy.
If we didn’t believe in Fields long term, we wouldn’t have him ranked as high as we do at QB5, No. 7 overall in our latest dynasty Superflex rankings.
Even though Fields’ risk of losing his job within the next 2-3 years is greater than every other QB1, his upside is too tantalizing to dismiss in dynasty startup drafts.