Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Julio Jones is coming off the worst year of his career. Now playing with quarterback Tom Brady, can Jones bounce back? What is Jones’ fantasy football outlook, and where does his current ADP sit heading into 2022 fantasy football drafts?
Julio Jones’ fantasy outlook for 2022
When the Atlanta Falcons traded Jones to the Tennessee Titans, he was supposed to be the missing piece in an offense that needed to hit the next level for success. Even after an injury-shortened 2020 season, Jones was a valued former franchise star. Instead of continuing his history of high-level production, though, Jones again succumbed to injuries and saw his numbers continue to dip.
Now 33, Jones has one more chance at proving he can be more than a part-time player who is available for half the year. He opted to sign with Brady’s Buccaneers over several other contenders. Even with a deep receiver room around him, the Bucs led the NFL in passing attempts, yards, and touchdowns in 2021.
With so much opportunity available, Jones can carve a valuable role for Brady and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich. Jones is a legendary route runner with extremely strong hands. Though he’s historically lined up in the slot around 15% of his total snaps, he projects as a good fit as a power slot option.
Jones’ sharp movements and speed will be too much for bigger defenders. However, his size and catch radius will also be problematic for cornerbacks. But the question is whether he’ll be stuck as a platoon player on this deep roster and, therefore, be too limited as a fantasy option.
Jones’ fantasy outlook is to be an end-of-the-roster depth piece. Tampa Bay produced only four fantasy-relevant pass catchers last season. It may be even less in 2022.
How the Buccaneers’ depth chart impacts Julio Jones’ fantasy projection for the season
We know Chris Godwin may miss some time as he recovers from a torn ACL. Had Tampa Bay not signed Russell Gage from Atlanta, Jones would have the clear path to being one of Brady’s favorite targets. The loss of Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski creates more opportunity since they were Brady’s third and fourth-leading receivers.
Expect Jones to benefit early on. Mike Evans is still a premier red-zone player and flourished without Godwin taking the bulk of targets. With 14 touchdowns going to Evans last year, only Gronk had more than five of the rest of the receivers. Should that repeat, Jones and Gage will have a hard time beating one another out for fantasy managers.
It’s possible we see Jones get more of the targets a traditional tight end would take. Neither Cameron Brate nor Kyle Rudolph is especially intriguing compared to going four-wide with Jones acting as a pseudo tight end. But we also know Tampa will utilize the power run game often, so those looks will condense the offense to three receivers and one tight end.
As much as I’d love to see Jones re-establish himself as a star with Brady, he’ll likely take away much of Gage’s upside, and the two will operate in a platoon role as soon as Godwin is back. That would mean less than one month of Flex upside for Jones.
Jones’ ADP for 2022
Despite having the cache of a high-profile name, Jones is still going as WR64 and No. 155 overall. His ADP surprises me, and I think he’s quite a good value because of the upside he presents in a high-volume offense with an elite quarterback.
For example, the fact he’s being taken after Romeo Doubs, Jahan Dotson, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a mistake to me.
Those players are in more limited roles and situations. Jones has quickly shown more acumen in training camp reviews than that bevy of young role players. His upside might be more limited once Godwin returns, but we also saw Brady continue to feed Brown despite having a deep set of receivers.
Trust Brady and Jones to be productive, and for his ADP to be relatively low as we look back.