New England Patriots wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster is a solid if unspectacular NFL receiver. After a series of one-year deals, Smith-Schuster is now locked into New England for the next three seasons. What is his fantasy football projection?
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JuJu Smith-Schuster’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
2018 feels like a lifetime ago. That was the year Smith-Schuster caught 111 of 166 targets for 1,426 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 18.4 PPR fantasy points per game. He was the next big thing, poised to be the Steelers’ WR1 of the future after Antonio Brown left.
However, many, myself included, had questions as to whether JuJu could be a WR1 at the NFL level. There were concerns he was a product of AB commanding so much attention from opposing defenses. Those concerns were quickly proven true at Smith-Schuster has come nowhere close to repeating his 2018 season in the years that followed.
Since 2019, Smith-Schuster has operated as his team’s WR1. Of course, he is miscast in the role and is better served to be a team’s WR2.
Nevertheless, he’s been the best wide receiver on his team each of the past four years. As a result, we’ve seen four seasons of mostly underwhelming production.
Smith-Schuster did average 14.6 ppg in 2020, but the last two years have been outright disasters from a fantasy perspective.
In 2021, Smith-Schuster played just five games due to injury, averaging 7.0 ppg in them. Last year, despite playing with Patrick Mahomes on a team with one of the weakest wide receiver depth charts in the league, Smith-Schuster could only muster up 11.6 ppg, good for a WR35 finish.
On one of the most efficient offenses in the league with the best quarterback to ever play, Smith-Schuster simply couldn’t earn targets. His 17.4% target share was 46th in the league, and his 21.5% targets per route run rate was 49th.
Smith-Schuster has always been a low average depth of target guy. It was 7.6 last season. But it’s difficult to imagine his circumstances getting better than leading the NFL in catchable target rate. If he could only manage to be a low WR3 in fantasy, what exactly can we really expect in New England?
Should You Draft JuJu Smith-Schuster This Year?
There was a decent amount of hype surrounding Smith-Schuster last season. This year, not so much.
Smith-Schuster does have the benefit of being the clear WR1 in New England. But we’ve seen this same story before, except it was on the Chiefs with Mahomes. Now, he is on the Patriots with Mac Jones.
While the Patriots actually had a respectable 56% neutral game script pass rate last season, that’s still 7% lower than the Chiefs. The Patriots are going to run fewer overall plays (because the offense is not as good, so they sustain fewer drives) and throw fewer passes.
The Patriots’ top three receivers behind JuJu are DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, and Tyquan Thornton. There’s a very real chance Smith-Schuster is able to reach a 25% target share.
The problem is even if Smith-Schuster sees 30 more total targets than he did in Kansas City, the quality of those targets is going to drop. It’s just difficult to see a world where Smith-Schuster is meaningfully better than last season.
With that said, Smith-Schuster has an ADP of WR48, No. 132 overall. Of course, we want upside with every player we draft. Smith-Schuster’s ceiling is likely capped as a mid WR3, at best. But even if you get a guy on the WR3/4 border out of your WR5 pick, that’s a win. In the later rounds, you’re just looking for useful players.
Smith-Schuster is currently my WR44. By no means would I call myself bullish on him. He is not someone I’m specifically looking to draft. But as we push toward the double-digit rounds of fantasy drafts, you could do worse than Smith-Schuster as your WR5.
View him as someone you will draft if he’s the top receiver on your board but not go out of your way to reach for.
