Los Angeles Chargers WR Joshua Palmer was a third-round pick in 2021 (selected ahead of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Nico Collins), but he’s yet to turn that draft capital into much in the form of fantasy football production.
With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams now out of town, is Palmer a bargain as he enters his fourth NFL season?
Joshua Palmer’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 178 (110 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 68
- Receiving Yards: 844
- Receiving TDs: 4
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Palmer This Year?
Laziness is the enemy of champions. It’s easy to look at the Chargers’ moves this offseason, assume that they are a run-centric offense, and move on.
I’m not suggesting that Palmer is the type of player you need to reach rounds to get (Round 12 ADP), but I do encourage you to avoid that lazy analysis and study him as a player before dismissing him.
Top 7 Rush Rates of 2023
- Baltimore Ravens: 50.3%
- San Francisco 49ers: 48.7%
- Chicago Bears: 48.7%
- Atlanta Falcons: 47.8%
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 47.3%
- Buffalo Bills: 45.9%
- Philadelphia Eagles: 45.9%
It’s unlikely that any of those teams surprise you, and it wouldn’t shock me if the assumption is that the Chargers join that list in 2024. Here are the WR1 PPR per-game finishes for those teams:
- Zay Flowers: WR31
- Deebo Samuel: WR12
- DJ Moore: WR9
- Drake London: WR42
- George Pickens: WR36
- Stefon Diggs: WR13
- A.J. Brown: WR8
That’s a wide range of outcomes, but the point is that a run-heavy scheme doesn’t result in an automatic removal from our radar. Palmer isn’t in that range of receivers, but he does have a quarterback under center whom we trust, and he’ll have every opportunity to win the WR1 role on this young core of pass catchers.
That’s not a bad profile (draft capital plus role competition) for a receiver being selected outside of the top 55 at the position.
GOIN' DEEEEEEEEEP@Flowercitysown | @SNFonNBC pic.twitter.com/7hgnyoPfJv
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) November 21, 2022
Palmer saw his yards per route run increase by 38.7% in 2023 from his rate through his first two seasons, a nice sign as he looks to take on the heaviest workload of his career.
Ladd McConkey was brought in with the 34th overall pick in April. While I agree that he is stiff competition for targets, does McConkey deserve to be drafted multiple rounds ahead of Palmer?
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Over the past decade, rookie receivers with first-round draft capital have earned a target on 21% of their routes, a rate that craters to 17.3% for receivers with less investment. That’s not to say that McConkey will struggle to earn targets in volume in his first season, but that potential needs to be considered. If that’s the case, Palmer could significantly outproduce his ADP.
I think what is most likely to happen is that McConkey soaks up the slot usage while Palmer is used in a Mike Williams-type way on the perimeter. That would mean that the rookie is better positioned to offer weekly value while Palmer possesses a higher weekly ceiling.
Neither of these receivers is being selected as a weekly fantasy starter, thus making them depth/bye week-filler options on your roster. Assuming that’s the case, I’ll happily embrace the variance and go with Palmer over McConkey at their current prices.
There’s also a matter of opportunity cost. Let’s say you want to speculate on this Chargers passing game, which duo do you prefer?
- McConkey in Round 8 with Ty Chandler/Kendre Miller in Round 12
- Palmer in Round 12 with Brian Robinson in Round 8
When put into context like that, there’s no decision to be made in my eyes. The excitement around a rookie receiver is understandable, especially compared to a prospect who has yet to realize his upside. But I’m not ready to give up on Palmer just yet.
