The Los Angeles Chargers offense is going to look a lot different this season. For the past two years, Joshua Palmer has been thrust into an increased role due to injuries to the WR room. Now, he’s the most veteran receiver on the roster. Should fantasy football managers consider Palmer as a late-round option?
Should You Select Joshua Palmer at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 153rd Overall (WR57)
- Reliable and Productive: For the past two seasons, Palmer has proven to be a reliable receiver for the Chargers, stepping up when Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were sidelined. He averaged 10.6 and 10.7 fantasy points per game over the past two years, showing he can deliver WR3 numbers when given the opportunity.
- Improved Opportunity in 2024: With Allen, Williams, and Austin Ekeler gone, Palmer steps into a leading role in the Chargers’ receiving corps. Depending on how quickly rookie Ladd McConkey adapts, Palmer could even lead the team in targets, making him a key part of the offense.
- Concerns with Passing Volume: Under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers are expected to be more run-heavy, which could limit the overall passing volume. This shift might reduce the impact of any increase in Palmer’s target share.
- ADP Analysis: Palmer’s ADP is WR57, No. 157 overall, while I have him ranked at WR51. While he’s a solid and reliable option, there may be more volatile players with higher upside available at a similar draft cost.
- Final Verdict: Palmer is a safe pick who can provide consistent production, making him a valuable asset on your bench or as a bye-week fill-in. However, if you’re looking for a player with top-24 upside, you may want to consider other options.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Joshua Palmer
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Palmer is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus WR rankings instead.
56) Adonai Mitchell, WR | Indianapolis Colts
57) Brandin Cooks, WR | Dallas Cowboys
58) Jerry Jeudy, WR | Cleveland Browns
59) Khalil Shakir, WR | Buffalo Bills
60) Rashid Shaheed, WR | New Orleans Saints
61) Joshua Palmer, WR | Los Angeles Chargers
62) Gabe Davis, WR | Jacksonville Jaguars
63) DeMario Douglas, WR | New England Patriots
64) Jahan Dotson, WR | Washington Commanders
65) Adam Thielen, WR | Carolina Panthers
66) Dontayvion Wicks, WR | Green Bay Packers
Palmer’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
For each of the past two NFL seasons, Palmer opened the year as an afterthought. With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams as the top two options for years, Palmer was always a distant third, only expected to play a rotational role.
As fate would have it, Allen and Williams struggled to stay on the field together. If even one was hurt, that elevated Palmer into a starting role.
Over the past two seasons, Palmer averaged 10.6 and 10.7 fantasy points per game, respectively. Injuries limited him to 10 games last year, but Palmer posted double-digit fantasy points six times.
Palmer averaged 9.5 yards per target and 15.3 yards per reception last season. Both of those numbers ranked 18th in the league. That’s mighty impressive for a guy who was supposed to be his team’s WR4.
By no means is Palmer some potential league-winning player. He’s a solid, reliable wide receiver that fantasy managers can insert into their lineup and expect WR3 numbers most of the time.
Heading into 2024, Palmer’s situation and opportunity appear to have improved. With Allen, Williams, and Austin Ekeler gone, and Quentin Johnston coming off a disastrous rookie season, a ton of targets are available.
Palmer is going to open the season as a starter. He may even lead this team in targets, depending on how quickly rookie Ladd McConkey can get going. On the surface, that looks like a great situation for Palmer’s fantasy value.
The concern is with the overall passing volume. This is an offense that threw the ball 59% of the time in a neutral game script last season. Under head coach Jim Harbaugh, that is not going to happen.
According to NBC Sports’ Denny Carter, Harbaugh’s 49ers teams ranked 31st, 31st, 32nd, and 29th in pass attempts, respectively, from 2011-2014. His last two Michigan teams ranked 117th and 121st, respectively, out of 130 teams in pass rate.
We could be looking at Justin Herbert throwing the ball 4-5 times fewer per game than his career averages. That would significantly mitigate any increase Palmer saw in target share.
Is Palmer a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Palmer’s ADP is WR57, No. 157 overall. I have him ranked at WR51, which is not that far above consensus this low in the rankings.
I like Palmer. He’s a solid player. He’s a near-certainty to outperform his ADP. There’s definitely value in getting WR3 production from your fantasy team’s WR5.
With that said, even at his price, there are players with top-24 upside. I don’t see that with Palmer. The type of production Palmer has historically provided is pretty replaceable. You can pick up 10 points per game. We know this because Palmer has literally been the guy you pick up the past two seasons.
I am fine with drafting Palmer. He will probably be a useful player and a great guy off your bench/bye-week filler. However, I don’t see any significant upside here. If you wanted to select some of the more volatile players I have ranked below Palmer instead of him, I wouldn’t fault you at all.
