Los Angeles Chargers WR Joshua Palmer continues to prove he’s better than he’s perceived. Does this make Palmer undervalued? Or is his dynasty value as high as it’s going to get, making him a sell candidate? How should fantasy football managers value Palmer going forward?
Joshua Palmer’s Dynasty Outlook
Every year, the Chargers try and upgrade at wide receiver to avoid having to feature Palmer. Yet, every year, Palmer seems to find a way into a starting role. When he’s thrust into that starting role, Palmer delivers.
The #Chargers are on the board. Joshua Palmer get loose for 79 yards. pic.twitter.com/2rxag03AJK
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 15, 2023
Before free agency, I wrote, “Perhaps the Chargers should be content with Palmer as their WR3? Just a thought.” Well, as of now, Palmer is the Chargers’ WR1.
Palmer’s fantasy numbers will never look that pretty because he’s never been an every-week starter. He averaged 10.6 and 10.7 fantasy points per game over the past two seasons.
Those numbers aren’t overly exciting, but the real measure of what Palmer can do should be when he gets a chance to play starter-level snaps.
In 2022, Palmer played at least 90% of the snaps in eight regular season games. He averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game during those contests.
Ahead of the 2023 season, the Chargers still had Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and they added first-round rookie Quentin Johnston. Once again, Palmer was potentially going to be relegated to the WR4 role.
Williams got hurt early in the season, and Johnston was unable to earn significant snaps, resulting in Palmer regaining the starting role. If we throw out Weeks 1 and 2 (when he was a backup), Palmer averaged 12.6 fantasy points per game last season. Even more impressively, his best game of the season came with Easton Stick at quarterback (21.3 points in Week 15).
For the first two years of his career, Palmer was just an underneath guy. His aDOT (average depth of target) hit 8.5 and 8.7 yards, respectively, and he averaged 10.7 yards per reception in both seasons. In 2023, Palmer started being utilized downfield a bit more. His aDOT shot up to 11.4 yards and his yards per reception increased to 15.3. Palmer showcased an element to his game he hadn’t previously displayed.
The young wideout’s 9.5 yards per target was 18th in the league, which is pretty good for a guy slated to open the season as his team’s WR4.
Now, the Chargers have neither Allen nor Williams. They are also without Austin Ekeler, one of the best pass-catching running backs of the past decade. All of a sudden, dynasty managers who held onto Palmer are sitting on a potentially startable fantasy receiver.
Palmer’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Palmer land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Katz’s latest dynasty rankings, featuring where Palmer falls in comparison to other fringe flex considerations at the position.
37) Cooper Kupp | LAR
38) George Pickens | PIT
39) Troy Franklin | FA
40) Terry McLaurin | WAS
41) Chris Godwin | TB
42) Keenan Allen | CHI
43) Calvin Ridley | TEN
44) Stefon Diggs | BUF
45) Josh Downs | IND
46) Dontayvion Wicks | GB
47) DeAndre Hopkins | TEN
48) Adonai Mitchell | FA
49) Ladd McConkey | FA
50) Courtland Sutton | DEN
51) Jakobi Meyers | LV
52) Roman Wilson | FA
53) Joshua Palmer | LAC
54) Michael Wilson | ARI
55) Mike Williams | FA
56) DeMario Douglas | NE
57) Christian Watson | GB
58) Rashid Shaheed | NO
59) Ricky Pearsall | FA
60) Ja’Lynn Polk | FA
Should You Trade Palmer in Dynasty?
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Palmer’s future is very uncertain at the moment. He remains on the Chargers and is under contract for the 2024 season, but nothing is guaranteed beyond this year.
While he’s currently the top option in the passing game, that could change with the emergence of whoever the Chargers draft. There’s a very real chance this passing game is only capable of supporting one fantasy-relevant receiver.
New head coach Jim Harbaugh has historically operated run-heavy offenses. Palmer greatly benefited from the Chargers airing it out. Last year, they had a 59% neutral game script pass rate. That may legitimately be around 50% this year.
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All of this makes Palmer a very difficult player to evaluate. The only thing we can be sure about is that he’s good enough to be a fantasy WR3 when given the opportunity. Whether or not he continues to get that opportunity remains to be seen.
As a reminder, a heavy target share in a run-heavy offense is often less valuable than a moderate target share in a pass-heavy offense.
Dynasty managers are probably best served by holding. He won’t garner much in a trade and isn’t impactful enough to want to trade for. Hang onto him and hope his situation is favorable in the future.
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