One of the stories of this offseason will be the running back carousel. There is no shortage of high-profile RBs that could switch teams, a list that includes Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, and Saquon Barkley, in addition to Josh Jacobs.
It seems likely that whoever the first domino to fall will spark movement in fantasy football, so let’s try to get ahead of things and see where Jacobs could call home for the 2024 NFL season.
Potential Landing Spots for Josh Jacobs
Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens are the most popular landing spot for most free agent backs, as this team is close to winning right now and is needy at the position.
Keaton Mitchell showed well last season, but after suffering a torn ACL in Week 15, his status for 2024 is up in the air. Plus, Gus Edwards is set to hit the open market.
Yes, Justice Hill remains in town, and yes, Lamar Jackson is a running game unto himself, but this offense can support a bell-cow back, especially one with versatility.
We saw the Ravens thrive in Year 1 of the Todd Monken era with a quick-strike pass game, something I expect to continue moving forward. Edwards had a productive season, but it’s hard not to think that he was a limiting force in terms of play-calling, as he has 30 catches on his 69-game NFL résumé.
While Jacobs has never caught a touchdown pass as a pro, he’s averaging 3.2 grabs per game over the past three seasons. He offers the same bulldozing style that made Edwards an asset near the goal line but comes with a varied skill set that will make an already difficult-to-defend offense near impossible to shut down.
Jacobs has over 1,500 NFL touches — that can accelerate the age curve — but he’s entering his age-26 season. That’s young enough to think that he could be back into the RB1 discussion if he lands in Baltimore.
Los Angeles Chargers
Assuming the Los Angeles Chargers move on from Ekeler, there is a gaping hole in their backfield that Jim Harbaugh will likely want to fill with stability in his effort to maximize Justin Herbert’s growth.
This offense could look drastically different if they elect to release Mike Williams. That would leave an aging Keenan Allen and unproven secondary options in Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston as Herbert’s primary weapons. Hence, LA’s interest in an every-down back like Jacobs, something Ekeler didn’t look like for most of 2023.
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The nice part about Jacobs playing in Los Angeles would be the lack of competition. I don’t think Hill would eat into his role in Baltimore, but Mitchell could if he returns. Plus, you’ve got the Jackson rushing ability to worry about.
None of that would be a concern with the Chargers: Joshua Kelley is a free agent this season who has yet to show much promise, and Isaiah Spiller has picked up just 2.5 yards per carry in his few opportunities.
The Chargers want to compete, and adding Jacobs would be one way to do that. If they do, go ahead and pencil in an elite role and a return to RB1 status.
Houston Texans
This is an interesting spot. The idea makes sense — this is a team trending up with money to spend due to having a difference-maker at the QB position in C.J. Stroud on a rookie contract. That said, the Houston Texans do still have Dameon Pierce on this roster for the next two seasons, and his base salary checks in at under $1 million this season.
Pierce struggled in 2023 after a strong rookie campaign and lost his starting role to Devin Singletary, someone Houston could opt to re-sign if the top of the RB market is too pricey for them.
In a world in which they sign Jacobs, Singletary isn’t a factor, but Pierce could be. This is a fun scenario to consider given the potential in this offense, but I think it’s less likely than the first two (why pay up at running back if you believe Pierce is even league average on a rookie deal?) and comes with some usage risk.
However, if the Texans were to fully commit to Jacobs as “the guy” the way they did Singletary, his stock in Houston would be just as high as in Baltimore or Los Angeles.
My take on Jacobs — he’s in a good spot to return RB1 fantasy production in 2024. The dynasty discussion is a little different given the pounding he’s taken up to this point, but I think that actually works in his favor for this upcoming season.
Jacobs isn’t going to come cheap or with a promise of many seasons. That may sound like a negative, but to me, that means that the only teams that will be interested in signing him will be those in win-now mode who want to give him as much work as he can handle.
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Isn’t that what we want? We always chase volume, and Jacobs is almost assuredly walking into a plus role with a proven skill set. Barring an outlier team making a run for him, Jacobs will be among my targets coming off of a season in which he let fantasy managers down.