For the season, Las Vegas Raiders RB Josh Jacobs has flashed the fantasy football potential that he showed last season with three top-six finishes at the position, but he now has six weeks where he failed to finish inside the top 20. Would the real Jacobs please stand up?
Josh Jacobs’ Rest-of-Season Outlook
It’s been an up-and-down season for one of 2022’s breakout stars, and Sunday Night Football was a reminder of the downside after we got a glimpse of the upside in Week 9 against the Giants (98 yards and two TDs).
Two of his big games this year came against the Packers and Giants, a pair of teams with questionable run defenses and offensive limitations that prevent them from putting Vegas in a tough spot. Those were projected as good spots for those reasons pregame, and Jacobs came through. Great.
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But when will Jacobs find himself in a situation like that again?
- Week 11 at Dolphins
- Week 12 vs. Chiefs
- Week 13 BYE
- Week 14 vs. Vikings
- Week 15 vs. Chargers
- Week 16 at Chiefs
Do any of those upcoming games fit that bill? No dice.
Now, Jacobs did have a big fantasy game in the first meeting with the Chargers (139 total yards and a touchdown), but how repeatable was that performance?
Los Angeles didn’t have professional chain-mover Austin Ekeler in that game, thus allowing the Raiders to remain competitive and hold a near six-minute edge in time of possession. Jacobs accounted for one-third of Aidan O’Connell’s completions in the rookie’s NFL debut (Jakobi Meyers target share: 10.5%).
Would you bet on any of that happening again? In that first meeting, none of Jacobs’ carries gained 10 yards (3.4 yards per carry), a level of inefficiency that could prove sticky, given the offensive line’s struggles.
Long story short — I don’t think times are getting better for Jacobs any time soon. That said, because he scored 21.8 fantasy points against the Giants just a week ago, you might still be able to sell at a profit.
Should You Trade Jacobs?
Are you considering trading Jacobs? Our PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trades to make in seconds! It also allows us to see trending searches, and we’ve compiled a few of the most popular below.
Should You Trade Jacobs for Derrick Henry?
These are two similar backs with similar limitations, but Derrick Henry has two minor advantages that make him my preferred option in a deal like this.
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Henry is already past his bye week, something that needs to be weighed when talking about rest-of-season value. In coin-flip situations, I’ll almost always side with the player who has one more game to make a positive impact on my roster.
The other piece moving in Henry’s favor is the offense’s trajectory. Don’t get me wrong, neither offense is bursting with upside, but the Titans have a developing Will Levis, and that’s more than what the Raiders have at this moment.
Should You Trade Jacobs for Rachaad White?
Rachaad White is peaking at the right time, and his usage makes him as safe an option as we have outside of the elite at the position these days.
He has cleared 6.5 fantasy points as a pass catcher alone in each of his past four games, a stretch that has seen him average 20.3 touches. That level of safety is something that Jacobs simply doesn’t offer in this limited offense.
I have White ranked two spots ahead of Jacobs in my rest-of-season rankings, prioritizing 2023 floor over sustained upside that we last saw in 2022.
Rachaad White had just a 1.1% chance of scoring a touchdown when he caught the ball on his 43-yard TD.
🔸 Yards After Catch: 49
🔸 Expected YAC: 17
🔸 YAC over Expected: +32White has gained +130 YACOE this season, +50 more than any other RB.#TENvsTB | #GoBucs pic.twitter.com/gepMBr942K
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 12, 2023
Should You Trade Jacobs for Saquon Barkley?
This is where I draw the line. Saquon Barkley is a version of Jacobs, but on an offense that is even more broken. The Giants haven’t scored more than 17 points in nine of 10 games this season and have little hope for the remainder of 2023.
Like Vegas, New York has yet to go on bye, so Barkley doesn’t even have the game edge on Jacobs. Barkley hasn’t run for a touchdown since Week 2 — the team just doesn’t put him in position to succeed. In the past, he has been able to salvage many a fantasy day with production through the air, but that’s not the case in 2023.
On Sunday, Barkley saw three targets and turned them into -5 yards for an offense that didn’t see a single player reach 35 receiving yards. The floor/ceiling evaluation of the Raiders offense isn’t favorable, but it’s not as bad as the Giants, and that gives Jacobs a minor edge in my rest-of-season rankings.
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