As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Las Vegas Raiders RB Josh Jacobs’ fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Josh Jacobs’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
There are always high expectations for first-round draft picks. And in fantasy, those expectations are sky-high for skill players like running backs.
As the No. 24 overall pick in 2019, Jacobs was supposed to be an instant fantasy sensation. And that’s what made his first three NFL seasons so confusing. By most accounts, he delivered — Jacobs was the RB15 in points per game in 2019 and the RB14 in points per game in 2020 and 2021.
Seemingly entering a contract year last season, in an offense frequently decimated by injuries, he finally became a fantasy superstar while compiling an incredible 2,053 total yards on 393 touches. Only Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey racked up more fantasy points. At the still youthful age of 24, Jacobs had fully arrived.
Now he’ll enter his fifth campaign playing on a franchise tag. This might be good news for fantasy investors, who want to know their elite RB is incentivized to throw caution to the wind (sort of) and compete for a long-term contract. But it’s also not that simple.
We can’t simply take what he did last year and overlay it onto the coming season. Jacobs arguably was overworked last year, and eventually, it showed. After netting 5.4 yards per carry in his first 12 outings, he finished the season with a meek 3.6 average in his final five games. He played every game after averaging two missed contests in each of his first three seasons.
And as alluded to above, the team leaned on him more than ever, in part because No. 1 TE Darren Waller missed eight games, while No. 2 WR Hunter Renfrow missed seven. In the five games those two guys missed at the same time, Jacobs averaged 30 touches. Yes, 30. His decline began at the tail end of that stretch.
Jacobs is the same talented running back he was when the Raiders drafted him in 2019. For his first three campaigns, he was great. Then last year, when handed the reins of the offense, he dominated.
But that doesn’t mean he’ll earn anywhere close to that volume in 2023. It also doesn’t guarantee anything close to his career-high rushing efficiency. Last year was not the new norm. It was the culmination of various factors that probably won’t be replicated this season.
Can he still be a 1,000-to-1,100-yard rusher with a healthy dose of targets? Absolutely. However, the monster numbers he put up are likely to give way to the merely “great” numbers he was accustomed to before the desperate Raiders rode their No. 1 running back for as long as he could carry them.
Should You Draft Josh Jacobs This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Jacobs with an ADP of RB10. Our PFN Consensus Rankings place him in the RB7 spot. This disparity between ADP and Consensus Rankings has to do with his current holdout.
In all likelihood, the market is wary of investing heavily in Jacobs, perhaps for some of the reasons outlined above combined with the possibility that he holds out into the regular season.
Our experts, on the other hand, are generally more bullish. They’ve docked him a few spots compared to last season’s performance, but nothing dramatic. Collectively, they see him as a near-elite RB when he’s on the field, plain and simple.
If he’s going in the top eight in your league, be wary. While age is on his side, running backs with his level of usage frequently regress the following season.
We should also consider where he’s playing. The Raiders are not great bets to reach the playoffs. Yes, they could surprise. More likely, they’ll finish around 6-11 again.
If Vegas opts not to re-sign Jacobs to a long-term contract (a strong possibility), then what incentive would Jacobs have to return and play for a team that may not be as advantageous of a situation as it was in 2022?
On a per-game basis, Jacobs should deliver as long as he’s healthy. At the same time, he’s a higher-than-average regression and injury risk that may not be ready for your lineup by week one if his holdout extends much further into training camp.