One of the better running backs in the NFL and fantasy football, Las Vegas Raiders RB Josh Jacobs projects to be an early pick once again as his 2022. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Jacobs’ fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP?
Josh Jacobs’ fantasy outlook for 2022
For the first two seasons, all we have heard about is this increased passing role Jacobs would see. Week after week, game after game, that was the narrative. Now that is not to say he hasn’t been solid for fantasy with RB18 and RB8 finishes. But wouldn’t you know it, the third time is the charm as Jacobs lived up to all the hype despite the turmoil surrounding the Raiders off the field.
While his rushing was down, failing to hit 1,000 yards for the first time (872), Jacobs cruised in as the RB12, 14th in points per game (15.1 PPR), thanks to a career-best 64 targets, recording 54 receptions for 348 yards. He was ninth amongst RBs in targets, fifth in receptions, and 14th in yards but missed out on finding the end zone. Not only that, but Jacobs scored double-digit fantasy points in 14 of his 15 games.
But then we get to the present, and Jacobs’ outlook is far less optimistic. For one, the Raiders declined his fifth-year option. Fine, I get it. Then they drafted another running back. Now I am a bit more nervous. Then the preseason hit, and while the starters rested, Jacobs played in the Hall of Fame Game. It’s full-blown panic mode now. Break the glass, as this is an emergency.
That was my thought and the prevailing thought of many. However, being more rational about it now, maybe it made a bit more sense. Playing Jacobs in the first game maximized the rest he would see throughout the preseason. He did not record a snap in Week 2, as is typical for a starting running back. Jacobs is a fantasy zombie who is still walking after being written off for as good as dead.
Although I don’t necessarily see RB12 in his outcomes, he will likely be more stable than we first thought. I wouldn’t want to rely on Jacobs in a Zero RB build. But as an RB2, I have come back on him a bit, even though there are several others I do prefer for fantasy football in 2022.
How the Raiders’ depth chart impacts Josh Jacobs’ fantasy projection for the season
The Raiders are going to be a team few want to target. Even last year, they were a hard out while playing under interim coach Rich Bisaccia, who was not offered the HC job. Instead, the Raiders pulled off a significant hire by snatching Josh McDaniels out of New England, something the Colts couldn’t do.
Rather than “Spider 2 Y Banana” and some inverted veer, the Raiders will have a sophisticated, modern playbook. McDaniels also has the best QB he has worked with since Tom Brady in Derek Carr. Coming off a career season where he passed for 4,800 yards, the Raiders made one of the offseason’s most significant moves by trading for and extending his former college teammate, Davante Adams, the best receiver in the NFL.
As far as Jacobs is concerned, there is a worry the Patriots’ philosophy of an RBCC will carry over, taking vital reps from Jacobs and placing others in specific roles depending on the situation. Zamir White is the one to watch when it comes to carries.
A rookie out of Georgia, “Zeus” lives up to the name as a powerful, one-cut rusher that also has breakaway speed (4.40) while at 6’0″ and 215 pounds. The only reason he was available later in the draft was the concern surrounding his multiple ACL tears, one in 2017 and the other in 2018. White has impressed in the preseason and, to me, is the future of the backfield, if not the present.
As far as the receptions go, which brought a significant portion of Jacobs’ value, Kenyan Drake is no longer a concern after being cut. That does not mean he is out of the woods, as now it is Ameer Abdullah to watch. While filling in for the injured Christian McCaffrey, Abdullah saw 53 targets, which cannot be overlooked. He could be on the field quite a bit on third down.
Also, Brandon Bolden, who played with the Patriots for eight years, is also here, and he knows this playbook better than anyone else. If that committee philosophy does carry over, it’s safe to say Jacobs’ managers have several reasons to be worried.
Jacobs’ ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 46, Jacobs is coming off the board as the RB20 in PPR formats, placing him in the fourth round in 12-team fantasy leagues. For comparison, White is the RB61 (229).
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Jacobs is the RB23 as the 46th player overall, whereas White is the RB58 (153rd). I am a bit lower on Jacobs, but I have him as the RB27 and 65th overall player in my rankings.
I am not entirely writing him off, but based on my rankings, odds are someone in my drafts will be higher on him than I am. That could very well be you, and by all means, draft him if you are confident that Jacobs’ talent will shine through. There is every chance he is a reliable RB2 for you in fantasy. Although, I would rather have guys like AJ Dillon, Elijah Mitchell, Chase Edmonds, and Rhamondre Stevenson. With that said, if you see running backs drying up, don’t hesitate too long to draft Jacobs as RB this year has a notable drop-off in return.