It is impossible to overstate what Josh Jacobs did in 2022, his fourth NFL season. His 393 touches are one thing, and it helped him set new career marks in rushing yards, receiving yards, and touchdowns, but his ranking seventh in the league (minimum 200 carries) in yards per carry is something else.
At 25 years of age, Jacobs is hitting the prime of his career and hopes to build on his All-Pro 2022 season. Of course, his bumpy offseason is a moving piece in all of this, but let’s assume that he is fully ready when the games count.
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Josh Jacobs’ Fantasy Outlook
The Las Vegas Raiders brought in a new veteran quarterback and a new veteran slot receiver, so the names surrounding Jacobs are a little different than a season ago. But the general structure of the team is similar. Davante Adams is going to continue to be a target monster in the passing game, while Jacobs is the clear-cut workhorse in this backfield.
Backing him up is Zamir White (17 carries last season) and Ameer Abdullah (fewer than 55 carries in each of the past five seasons), neither of whom is any threat to take touches off his plate if we are assuming health.
Jimmy Garoppolo’s San Francisco 49ers operated at a well-below-average pace during his time there, a style of offense that can limit play volume and, thus, fantasy production.
While it is likely that the 2023 Raiders will play at the pace their quarterback favors, Las Vegas fielded the eighth-slowest offense a season ago, and that didn’t stop Jacobs from piling up elite numbers.
Can Jacobs Repeat His Career Year?
Since 2006, only four running backs have had a season with 330+ carries and over 50 catches: LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, DeMarco Murray, and Jacobs.
That, of course, is a great list on which to find yourself, and those numbers may have netted you a 2022 title, but we aren’t worried about last year. We are worried about the here and now. The encore season for the previous three RBs was a touch underwhelming when you consider the massive season they put together prior:
- Tomlinson: Played every game, 374 fewer yards, and 13 fewer TDs
- Jackson: Four missed games, averaged 6.2 fewer touches per game
- Murray: New team, lost over one yard per carry, averaged just 15.8 touches per game
That’s … less encouraging. Of course, Jacobs doesn’t need to repeat his magical 2022 to provide value at his current ADP, but be aware that regression needs to be built in before you really even start analyzing.
As for the Jacobs profile, there’s plenty to like. He averaged a career-high in receiving yards per game last season while posting his lowest drop rate and seeing his routes run per game increase for a third consecutive season.
He’s not Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler, but with multiple grabs in 14 of his final 15 games last season, his versatility is a weapon for the Raiders and a reason to buy him as a viable second-round pick in fantasy football.
The question in terms of repeatability comes with the ground game. Jacobs had the highlight RB performance of the season in 2022 (303 total yards with a walk-off 86-yard touchdown run in a Week 12 win against Seattle), and that makes it easy to forget that none of his 137 touches after that big week gained more than 20 yards.
Those big runs are what separate a good season from a great one, and the lack of them was very much a concern for Jacobs entering 2022 (he had gone consecutive seasons without a 30-yard touch).
MORE: 2023 Fantasy Football RB Rankings
If we are to assume that the human body isn’t built to carry his 2022 workload in consecutive seasons (something that Tomlinson, Jackson, and Murray exemplified) and that fewer big plays hurt Jacobs’ efficiency, we should dial back his yardage estimate in a significant way.
I’m projecting him to finish closer to the 89 yards per game that he averaged in his first three seasons than the nearly 121 he averaged a season ago, though I do believe double-digit scores are a pretty good bet. Prior to 2022, Jacobs was scoring once every 30 touches, and with a near 300-touch expectation, he should be able to sustain very nice (not elite) production this season.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Jacobs at His ADP?
Jacobs’ ADP has settled in the Derrick Henry range, with fantasy managers operating under the assumption he would ultimately report to the team and end his holdout. On August 26, Tom Pelissero reported that Jacobs and the Raiders agreed to terms on a one-year deal worth up to $12 million.
That’s the perfect spot for Jacobs (back half of Round 2). His feature role elevates his floor to a point where he can safely be viewed as your RB1, but the fear of regression has me opting for a receiver in this range if I drafted a top-tier running back with my first pick.
If you’re trying to play chess while the rest of your league plays checkers, it’s worth noting that the Raiders play a lot of elite quarterbacks down the stretch.
“The best defense can be a good offense.”
If Vegas wants to have success in those games (from Week 10-16, the Raiders face Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes twice, Kirk Cousins, and Justin Herbert), Jacobs is going to be used to melt the clock and limit the possession count.
If the Raiders can execute, that could mean the team’s running back peaks late in the season, with the Week 13 bye serving as a nice time to catch his breath and lead you to fantasy glory this winter!