We know that Father Time is always lurking around running backs in the NFL, and newly minted Green Bay Packers RB Josh Jacobs’ dynasty ranking certainly needs to take that into account.
The former All-Pro will enter 2024 as a 26-year-old back with over 1,500 touches on his NFL résumé — is it time to run for the hills in your fantasy football league, or should you be cashing in on the decline in value that has resulted from a down 2023 season?
Josh Jacobs’ Dynasty Outlook
On the plus side, Jacobs has flashed the type of versatility that makes him a valuable asset. After opening his career with just 53 catches through two seasons (28 games), Jacobs has averaged over 2.5 catches per game in three straight seasons, giving him an avenue to a nice weekly floor.
On the downside, the lack of explosive runs can be the first indicator of aging, and, in that regard, we are walking on thin ice with the Jacobs profile. Since Week 14 of 2022:
- Jacobs: 0.9% of carries have gained 20+ yards
- Average NFL RB: 2.2% of carries have gained 20+ yards
In this era where volume can be difficult to come by, the need for splash plays is increasing with time, and it has become a rarity for Jacobs’ managers (three on 331 carries over that stretch).
Could a move to a stronger offense in Green Bay help prevent further fall-off and thus return him to RB1 status?
Jacobs’ Dynasty Ranking 2024
Where does Barkley land in the dynasty RB landscape after changing teams? Here are PFN’s latest dynasty rankings, showing where Barkley lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Bijan Robinson | Atlanta Falcons
2) Breece Hall | New York Jets
3) Christian McCaffrey | San Francisco 49ers
4) Jahmyr Gibbs | Detroit Lions
5) Jonathan Taylor | Indianapolis Colts
6) Saquon Barkley | Philadelphia Eagles
7) Travis Etienne Jr. | Jacksonville Jaguars
8) De’Von Achane | Miami Dolphins
9) Kyren Williams | Los Angeles Rams
10) James Cook | Buffalo Bills
11) Kenneth Walker III | Seattle Seahawks
12) Isiah Pacheco | Kansas City Chiefs
13) Josh Jacobs | Green Bay Packers
14) Rachaad White | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
15) Javonte Williams | Denver Broncos
16) Alvin Kamara | New Orleans Saints
17) D’Andre Swift | Chicago Bears
18) Rhamondre Stevenson | New England Patriots
19) Tony Pollard | Tennessee Titans
20) Derrick Henry | Baltimore Ravens
21) Brian Robinson Jr. | Washington Commanders
22) David Montgomery | Detroit Lions
23) Aaron Jones | Minnesota Vikings
24) Najee Harris | Pittsburgh Steelers
25) Joe Mixon | Houston Texans
Should You Trade Jacobs in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Jacobs in the dynasty? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer makes it easy to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!
At this point, it’s safe to say that the managers in your league are well aware of the limited shelf-life for running backs. If they weren’t entering the 2023 season, the fact that the NFL teams are telling us as much with their contractional actions on players like Jacobs solidified the devaluing of the position.
Understanding that allows you to approach a player like Jacobs properly. His value isn’t a long-term conversation because 95% of running-back conversations aren’t long-term ones.
If, and only if, you are in a position to compete, should you be looking to acquire a running back with a few years of NFL experience under his belt?
This is a “take the temperature of the room” situation when it comes to the trade market. I can tell you that I value him as a strong RB2 in dynasty formats, but unless you’re trading with me, that projection is more of a guide than gospel. If the managers in your league are willing to cast Jacobs aside after a down 2023, I’d make an offer.
This Packers offense is moving in the right direction (a benefit he didn’t have while with the Las Vegas Raiders), and their viewing of Jacobs as an upgrade over a franchise staple in Aaron Jones indicates that they are fully committed.
If the opinion of Jacobs is still in the range of where it was 12 months ago, I’d avoid trading for him and would very much explore trading him away. As you can see in my rankings, I have him ranked just below a few running backs in better offenses.
While I believe that Green Bay is trending up, I still would prefer the stability that comes with the Dolphins, Chiefs, or Bills — thus potentially creating a buying opportunity for the bell cow backs in those systems.
Dealing with a running back very much requires creativity and being price sensitive — the only mistake you can make is not evaluating the feel for player value in your specific league.
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