Green Bay Packers RB Josh Jacobs showcased just how high his ceiling was in 2022 with the Raiders (2,053 yards with 12 touchdowns and 53 catches), but his efficiency has largely lacked for the majority of his five years in the NFL.
Is joining an upward trending offense the key to Jacobs turning back into a fantasy football difference-maker, or will that magical season prove to be an outlier when all is said and done?
Josh Jacobs’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Jacobs is entering his age-26 season. While that may feel like the perfect age, be careful.
The Alabama product has cleared 260 touches in all five of his NFL seasons and is north of 1,500 for his career. It’s important to remember that age is simply a number; it’s the grind on the body that we are most concerned about (Raheem Mostert, for example, is six years older than Jacobs but is well under 900 touches for his career).
The Packers are obviously aware of the wear and tear that Jacobs has endured since he was a first-round pick in 2019, and you could see them hedging that bet this offseason.
Yes, Green Bay valued the fact that he’s three years younger than current Minnesota Vikings RB Aaron Jones. The hope is that Jacobs can help the Packers compete for a few years longer than what they had projected for their 2023 starter, but they’ve created a safety net.
AJ Dillon returned to Green Bay on a qualifying contract this offseason (he only counts for $1.3 million against the cap, but it’s depth all the same and a move they certainly weren’t obligated to do), and the Packers selected MarShawn Lloyd (sleeper alert!) in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
86-yard run from Josh Jacobs to win the game! #LVvsSEA pic.twitter.com/F4aSUw09MM
— NFL (@NFL) November 28, 2022
At this point, Dillon isn’t to be viewed as a threat to Jacobs’ work, but by adding another bulky back (5’9”, 210 pounds), it’s clear that the Packers want similar options on their roster either to spell Jacobs or to fill in should something happen.
Lloyd averaged an eye-popping 8.2 yards per touch last season at USC.
For me, this is a bit of a red flag. I love the versatility that Jacobs has shown over the past three seasons (3.2 catches per game after hauling in just 1.9 through his first two years), and his plodding running style figures to have a positive impact on a Packers offense that will look to feature a quickly developing Jordan Love.
But three of Jacobs’ past four seasons have been underwhelming in terms of efficiency, and that’s more of what I’m expecting in 2024.
Is Jacobs a Good Fantasy Pick?
There is certainly a path for Jacobs to be a viable pick in the first half of the third round. I have my concerns when it comes to his efficiency, but even I can’t deny that there is plenty of touchdown equity to chase.
Over the past three seasons, Jacobs ranks 10th among 39 qualifiers in converting carries inside the 10-yard line to touchdowns (33.3%), a skill the Packers clearly targeted this summer (Jones: 36th, 18.2%).
You’re going to need those scores to profit on this selection. I worry about a peaks-and-valleys type of season, and if that is the profile, I’d rather select more stability in this round (the elite onesie position players are an option) and take a player with similar makeup two rounds later in Kenneth Walker III.
At the end of the day, this is a roster-construction pick. If you elect to take a running back with two of your first three picks, I think Jacobs is fine – he’s your RB2, and it’s very likely that your RB1 offers an elite weekly floor. If you’ve decided to neglect the position early, I don’t love the thought of Jacobs being your RB1. In this situation, I’d kick the RB1 can down the road and consider a zero-RB roster.