Indianapolis Colts WR Josh Downs was on a 1,000-yard pace through the first half of his rookie season thanks to a handful of splash plays, but his efficiency faded down the stretch. With Anthony Richardson returning to action and more target competition after the team selected Adonai Mitchell, is Downs the type of flier worth taking for fantasy football managers at the tail end of drafts this summer?
Josh Downs’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 170 (97 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 74
- Receiving Yards: 836
- Receiving TDs: 2
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Downs This Year?
Let’s get one thing straight: Downs can make plays.
Last October, he had a 30+ yard grab in three of four games after consecutive 1,000-yard seasons at North Carolina (19 touchdowns across those two seasons). Despite size limitations (5’9”, 171 pounds), this profile consists of the ability to threaten defenses.
Who started Josh Downs today đź‘‹ pic.twitter.com/9oEyixfOLF
— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife) October 22, 2023
That said, I will have zero exposure this season. Yes, he requires essentially zero draft capital (currently hovering around WR69 in ADP), but I don’t see a clear path to Downs ever making it into my lineup.
This is an offense with an alpha WR1, a star running back with a versatile skill set, depth at receiver, and a generational athlete under center.
The Colts, in a season in which Jonathan Taylor missed seven games and Richardson played portions of four games, ranked 26th in pass rate over expectation. I’m in line with the rest of the industry in expecting Indianapolis’ offense to take an overall step forward and be a top-10 unit, but that doesn’t require them to push a second receiver next to Michael Pittman Jr. onto the fantasy radar.
Mitchell enters his rookie season with strong draft capital, while Alec Pierce (15.2 yards per catch across 33 NFL games) provides the size complement to Pittman. I’m not saying that I know that Downs will rank fourth among receivers on this team in fantasy production, but the fact that I can’t say with confidence that won’t be the case is enough for me to ignore him at the end of drafts.
Outlier performances can happen, which is why we love this game, but the lack of size certainly played into Downs being one of just six qualified receivers with 75+ targets and no more than three end-zone targets.
He produced 5.3% points below expectation in 2023 (46th of 59 qualifiers at the position), and while the splash plays will pop up, our ability to predict them is not something I see happening.
- Weeks 1–9: Targeted on 21.4% of routes
- Weeks 10-18: Targeted on 18.8% of routes
Rookie receivers tend to improve with time, but we didn’t see that for Downs as last year wore on. Now there is added competition. Sharing a Round 14 ADP with him are Gabe Davis and Jahan Dotson, two all-or-nothing options that I much prefer given the role this spot is filling on my roster.
Downs suffered an ankle injury early in August, and while there is hope that there is no lasting impact, it does take some of the shine off of what has been described by those who cover the team as a spectacular training camp.
If I’m being honest, this round is a running back spot for me. Tyrone Tracy, Kimani Vidal, and Khalil Herbert all require similar investments. I wouldn’t consider Downs over any of them, barring a bizarre build that has me in desperate need of WR depth.
Downs will have my attention in September as a potential waiver wire addition if his route tree and connection with Richardson are well above what I expect, but not before we see proof of concept in that regard.
