As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Indianapolis Colts WR Josh Downs’ fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Josh Downs’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
If someone passes you on the street and says, “Let me tell you how Josh Downs will do this year,” keep your head down and keep walking.
It’s always challenging to predict a rookie’s fantasy production. But with Downs, there are three areas that generate massive ranges of outcomes.
First, he joins a receiving corps led by the still-underrated Michael Pittman Jr. Meanwhile, 2022 second-rounder Alec Pierce and 2022 third-rounder Jelani Woods should build on their respectable first-year numbers. And Indy recently added Isaiah McKenzie, who proved last season that he can be a constant offensive presence, even on a team loaded with talent.
It’s certainly not a deal-breaker for Downs. He could eventually move into the No. 2 WR role, which would make him a near-automatic fantasy asset. But there’s some muddiness here. For all his abilities, Downs will play with several pass catchers who are similarly impressive.
Second, rookie QB Anthony Richardson will take the helm of this offense. He’s deemed to be somewhat raw, and his ceiling might be as high as — or even higher than — any other QB from this year’s draft. But there are a lot of unknowns for a guy with such a limited collegiate track record (393 career pass attempts).
In fact, Richardson is known more for what he can do with his legs than with his arm. How many times have we seen young, dual-threat QBs struggle in their first season … and sometimes their second … and sometimes more?
Jalen Hurts needed time to prove he was a franchise QB. So did Justin Fields. The notion that Richardson can easily step in and throw for 3,800+ yards and 26+ touchdowns in Year 1 is a bit of a stretch.
Third, while Downs is a big-play receiver, he’s not exactly big. He’s reportedly 5’9″ and 171 pounds. Perhaps he’s bulked up a bit since he was last measured. But the key here is that he hasn’t played against NFL defenders, who are generally bigger and more physical than what he saw at North Carolina.
That doesn’t mean Downs can’t be a top-20 fantasy WR someday. Slight-framed receivers can still thrive in the right situation.
However, when combining the challenges of joining a packed receiver corps and trying to develop timing with a relatively inexperienced quarterback (albeit with massive potential), he doesn’t have as much room for error as a bigger-bodied receiver who can win more contested catches. It also doesn’t help that he developed a reputation for dropping too many passes.
All told, Downs is a fun player to watch, and he’ll find his footing eventually with the Colts. But fantasy managers should understand that his development is tied to that of Richardson and is also connected to how this receiver corps will shake out as the season progresses.
Should You Draft Josh Downs This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Downs with an ADP of WR93. However, our PFN Consensus Rankings have him at WR74. His ADP suggests that all of the warnings highlighted above will bear out, resulting in a disastrous rookie campaign (from a statistical perspective) for one of the Colts’ prized 2023 draft picks.
But this is where we get to the range of outcomes. It’s not all doom and gloom for the rookie. Yes, he’s facing tough headwinds that should keep his floor around the WR85-WR90 range. However, his ceiling is dramatically higher.
Yes, Richardson could begin to figure things out by midseason or even by the fantasy playoffs. McKenzie might not enjoy the same success that he had catching balls thrown by Josh Allen. Downs could be a weekly top-three or top-four offensive option in (and here’s the key) a top-heavy offense.
Because in a top-heavy offense led by Jonathan Taylor (assuming he plays), Pittman, Pierce, and Downs, the rookie could have some big performances. Maybe not more than five or six. Maybe not more than two or three. But if he serves as a big-play receiver in a top-heavy offense, then Downs might operate like another slight-framed third-round pick: John Brown.
Downs’ 2023 range spans from around the WR55 to the WR90. As the WR55, he’d probably strike gold occasionally — enough to warrant some bye-week dart throws. That makes him a solid bye at his current price, especially in Best Ball leagues that reward managers who snag boom/bust fliers late in the draft.
To be clear, nothing is guaranteed — neither the good nor the not-so-good. There are three huge variables confronting the rookie as he seeks to carve out a meaningful offensive niche. But his ADP suggests betting on disaster. I’d rather bet on the possibility of disaster with a comparable possibility of deep-league rosterability.