Rankings are important, but they don’t always have the answers. Oftentimes, two players listed next to or near each other in rankings are pretty much equal in value.
Two guys that fit this profile based on ADP are Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen and Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. If you’re looking to take an elite quarterback in your fantasy football draft, which one should you select?
2024 Fantasy Outlook for Josh Allen
For the first time in about three years, cracks have appeared in Josh Allen’s armor. He’s not been viewed quite as bulletproof as he has been since breaking out four years ago.
Now, that’s not to say Allen isn’t still an elite QB1. Rather, there are concerns that weren’t previously present.
Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are gone. Say what you want about their respective talent levels, but there’s no denying this is the weakest group of pass-catchers Allen has ever had.
Over the past four years, no fantasy QB has been better than Allen. He’s coming off the worst season of those four… which was still 24.2 fantasy points per game. Allen is the surest of sure things.
Should fantasy managers worry about the receivers? I’m not. We already saw what this looks like.
Over the second half of last season, Allen might as well have not had Diggs, who had fewer receiving yards than Khalil Shakir. Even in the second-least-efficient rushing season of his career, Allen still recorded 15 touchdowns on the ground. In total, Allen accounted for 44 touchdowns last season. He scored 20+ fantasy points 13 times and had just two games below 16 points all season. He was just fine not throwing to Diggs.
The Bills will likely be run-heavy this season, and that’s also going to involve Allen running. He projects to be their primary goal line back once again. Don’t overthink it. Allen is an elite quarterback, like he’s always been.
2024 Fantasy Outlook for Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes, the greatest quarterback of all time, is coming off the worst season of his career. After five straight seasons of over 20 ppg, Mahomes was down at 18.4 last season. His QB10 finish was his first time outside the top six in his career.
Initially, fantasy managers seemed to be dinging Mahomes for one down year. It’s very easy to explain it away.
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For starters, Mahomes had the worst WR corps he’s ever had. Rashee Rice emerged over the second half, but when your top receiver is a low aDOT rookie, things are not going well. The rest of his options ranged from rotational WR4/5s to guys who shouldn’t be in the NFL.
Additionally, the Chiefs couldn’t score. In the regular season, the Chiefs scored a mere 37 offensive touchdowns. By comparison, they scored 59 in 2022 and 53 in 2021.
This season, the Chiefs should look more like the team from the previous five seasons. We should expect 50+ offensive touchdowns in an offense that added Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown.
Who Should I Draft in 2024?
I’m on record saying I think Mahomes is going to throw for 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns this season. If he does that, he will very likely be the QB1. Yet, this isn’t even the slightest bit of a difficult decision. The answer is Allen.
It would be foolish to just assume that my feelings about Mahomes are correct and draft accordingly. Even if Mahomes is the QB1 and Allen is the QB2 or QB3 while averaging 24+ ppg, that’s perfectly fine.
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Allen has the highest floor at the quarterback position, and his ceiling is as high as anyone’s. Although Mahomes isn’t exactly a stationary quarterback, he’s nowhere near the level of runner that Allen is. Allen’s designed runs and status as the team’s top goal-line option make him so dangerous.
Sure, he’s probably not scoring 15 times on the ground this season. The mistake would be in assuming that every non-Allen rushing TD suddenly becomes a rushing TD for James Cook or Ray Davis. The most likely change is they become passing touchdowns. If Allen gets four points instead of six for half of his touchdowns, that is not going to meaningfully impact his season-long fantasy value.
I love Mahomes this year. Do not shy away from drafting him around the 3/4 turn. But if Allen falls, I would not be drafting Mahomes with Allen still on the board.