With a 34-3 halftime lead over the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Buffalo Bills left absolutely no doubt that they were the best team on the field. Most notably, quarterback Josh Allen asserted his dominance with turnover-free football and four passing touchdowns.
Amidst the action, Allen passed up longtime rival Patrick Mahomes to become the betting favorite to win NFL MVP, with +200 odds. Is there any value on this line? Let’s talk about Allen’s candidacy.
Josh Allen Passes Patrick Mahomes as Betting Favorite to Win NFL MVP
Jacksonville isn’t the league’s best defense, but Allen made some seriously impressive throws throughout his big night. It’s only Week 3, but he’s looked great all season thus far, and viewers have taken note of the fact that he’s producing with a stripped-down offensive skill group after top receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis left town this offseason.
Allen is now up to 7 touchdowns, 634 yards and a rating of 133.7 as a passer, as well as 85 rushing yards and two scores on the ground. Of course, prolific production is nothing new to Allen, but he’s had a turnover issue in the past, and hasn’t yet thrown a pick this season, a huge deal when discussing his MVP candidacy.
Team success is also a key factor, and the Bills should be right in the mix to win the AFC East, especially with the New York Jets defense looking slightly more flawed than expected and the Miami Dolphins without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for the foreseeable future.
Current MVP odds from @betmgm:
Josh Allen +200
Patrick Mahomes +400(Mahomes had been the favorite)
— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) September 24, 2024
Of course, an MVP isn’t just a reward for having a great season in a vacuum — you have to be the very best. Luckily for Allen, it’s no secret that passing numbers are down across the league, so it won’t take as much as usual to stand out from the pack.
Even the top passers in the NFL, Allen’s competition for MVP, are having a tough time. Patrick Mahomes has struggled tremendously despite the Chiefs’ 3-0 start. The two-time MVP has averaged just under 220 passing yards per game while throwing for 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Similarly, Jalen Hurts has thrown for more interceptions than touchdowns.
Joe Burrow’s numbers have been fine, but he’s failing the dreaded “eye test,” and his Bengals are in serious trouble as a team. Then there’s Aaron Rodgers, who looks great but isn’t likely to accrue MVP-type volume on a team like the Jets.
With all of that being said, +200 is a terrible price this early in the season and it would be quite surprising if that’s the lowest it gets the rest of the way. The Bills are about to hit a brutal stretch of their schedule, with three consecutive road games against playoff contenders on tap.
The Bills will next play the Baltimore Ravens, followed by the Houston Texans and the division-rival Jets. When that stretch is over, we should know much more about Allen as an MVP contender, but more pointedly, he should falter just a bit at some point during that run, at least relative to his superb start to the season.
If Allen slips up just a bit, his odds could change significantly, just as they took a big turn In the other direction this weekend. Allen is the rightful favorite to win this award, but the currently available number isn’t a good one. Wait for the market to react to a tough game, and invest in Allen when his odds go above +400, or better yet, +500 or even +600.