Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen is considered fantasy football royalty entering his seventh NFL campaign. Allen’s durability and dynamic playmaking ability have made him an elite producer over the last four years. Yet, the loss of Stefon Diggs — who was on the Bills since 2020 — casts some uncertainty about his passing production entering this season.
Can fantasy managers expect Allen to remain an elite fantasy option without a guaranteed go-to option in the passing game in 2024?
Josh Allen’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 423.5
- Passing Yards: 4,417.4
- Passing TDs: 34.0
- Interceptions: 15.9
- Rushing Yards: 698.3
- Rushing TDs: 9.5
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Allen This Year?
Few players in recent memory have had a better fantasy run than Allen over the last four seasons.
Fantasy Production Since 2020
- 2023: QB1 (4,830 total yards and 44 total TDs)
- 2022: QB2 (5,092 total yards and 42 total TDs)
- 2021: QB1 (5,170 total yards and 42 total TDs)
- 2020: QB1 (4,965 total yards and 45 total TDs)
Folks, that is what fantasy excellence looks like. We would be remiss, though, if we didn’t mention the fact that these elite fantasy campaigns all had one common denominator — Diggs’ presence.
As you are probably well aware, Diggs was traded to the Houston Texans this offseason, which drastically changes how opposing defenses can defend Buffalo’s passing attack this upcoming year.
To be fair, Allen did have fantasy success in 2019 (QB8 overall finish) without Diggs, but his passing stats were significantly reduced. He barely cracked 3,000 yards passing and only produced 20 TD passes that season.
The question is, was this stretch of fantasy excellence thanks to Diggs’ arrival, or is it simply a coincidence? Chances are it is a little bit of both.
Allen’s passing numbers last season included a career-high 18 interceptions as well as 29 passing touchdowns — which was his lowest mark since 2019. But his rushing TD production was elite, with 15 scores to help inflate those fantasy numbers.
The loss of Diggs could certainly negatively impact his passing production, which doesn’t exactly give fantasy managers great vibes given last year’s “decline.” Yet, as we saw with Patrick Mahomes two seasons ago after losing Tyreek Hill, great players tend to figure it out.
Despite carrying the ball over 100 times in five straight seasons, Allen has remained remarkably durable in direct comparison to other elite dual-threat quarterbacks. Players like Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Kyler Murray have all missed time over the past two years, which makes Allen’s availability — playing all 17 games for three straight years — that much more impressive.
It may be a little more popular to fade Allen a bit heading into 2024, but until I see something other than a QB1 or QB2 overall finish, I’m keeping him atop my quarterback rankings.
As such, Allen’s ADP at No. 18 overall in the second round (QB1 off the board), makes complete sense because of his elite production over the last four years.
Can cases be made for players like Hurts, Jackson, or Mahomes this year? Sure, but that still doesn’t change the fact that Allen is arguably the best dual-threat fantasy quarterback in the game.
Ultimately, Allen has given us no reason to doubt he’s an elite fantasy option entering the 2024 NFL season. If you want to pay a premium price for one, Allen has proven he’s worthy of being the first quarterback selected in your fantasy draft.
