As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. Well, just like every year, we at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Josh Allen’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
The 2018 draft might be one of the most consequential of the past 15 years, especially at the quarterback position. Baker Mayfield went No. 1 overall, while Sam Darnold followed close behind at No. 3.
Josh Rosen came off the board at No. 10. The first two were mostly deemed can’t-miss prospects. In the right scheme, Rosen might have shined, at least eventually.
Instead, of the five QBs taken in that opening round, only Allen (No. 7 overall) and Lamar Jackson (No. 32) have guaranteed starting jobs five years later.
Of course, that’s the minimal praise we can offer these two generational talents. Both Allen and Jackson have transformed the game by largely reinventing their position. Jackson arguably is the greatest QB rusher ever, with four of the 16 highest rushing-yardage outputs — including the most ever (1,206 yards in 2019).
Allen has two of the 16 highest rushing-yardage outputs. That alone is wildly impressive. But what makes Allen uniquely talented, as well as a mainstay elite fantasy player, is his exceptional passing numbers.
Allen already is the Bills’ No. 3 all-time passer with respect to yards and touchdowns and is on pace to be No. 1 on both fronts in 2026 or 2027. Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, James Cook, Dawson Knox, and rookie Dalton Kincaid form a catch-friendly nucleus designed to elevate Allen as much as he elevates them.
But Allen’s value remains tied to his dual-threat abilities. That is, as he gets older and runs less, his fantasy production likely will dip. Instead of being the No. 1 or No. 2 preseason QB, he might be No. 5 or No. 6 by age 30 or 31, as he’s overtaken by the next generation of run-heavy quarterbacks.
And there’s a chance this dip could occur in 2023. Head coach Sean McDermott understands that Allen is taking too many hits when he runs downfield. Even last year, McDermott expressed hope that Allen would run less.
However, even head coaches have limitations. Allen averaged a career-high 7.8 carries per game last season, up from 7.2 the year before — which had been his highest average since 2018. The fact is, when Allen sees an opening, he knows he’s capable of helping his team by exploiting the defensive lapse.
But there are legitimate concerns that with zero Super Bowl appearances during Allen’s tenure, the team might take more of a long-term approach with their star quarterback. Yes, adopting a win-now approach would be nice. And yet, Allen playing at a high level well into his 30s could be construed as just as important.
I believe that’s why they added Damien Harris to the backfield mix. Harris could be invaluable on third-and-short, as well as near the goal line.
And as a bell-cow-capable back, he and Cook can chew up yards, taking pressure off Allen to work magic with his legs.
Should You Draft Josh Allen This Year?
How many fantasy quarterbacks are safer than Allen? Arguably none. Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are at the same tier. Any combination of Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, and even Trevor Lawrence realistically could finish in the top five.
In other words, there’s a lot of incredible fantasy talent at this position. And depending on the site you’re examining, Allen or Mahomes is listed as the QB1, while the other is the QB2. That’s probably how things will shake out for much of the summer.
So the question is whether you take Allen early in your draft — perhaps right before or right after an opponent snags Mahomes — or wait a round or two (or three?) for a realistic near-elite talent.
In a two-QB or Superflex league, the answer is fairly clear. Take the points unless your league underweights quarterbacks (e.g., one point per 50 yards passing, rather than per 25). Allen has one of the best floors in the game, as well as one of the best ceilings. He’s a no-brainer first-rounder in leagues that value QBs.
But in a one-QB league, be cautious. Approximately 29% of his fantasy production came on the ground last season, thanks in part to a team-high seven rushing scores.
If his rushing attempts are cut by even 20%, that would equate to a roughly 6% drop in fantasy points — or even more if Harris and Cook absorb more attention near the end zone.
I think he’ll have a tough time reaching 400 fantasy points. 20-22 points per game seem realistic, putting him on track for 340-374 points across 17 games. Elite or near-elite?
Absolutely. Worth snagging at his ADP? I’d rather use that pick on an impact RB or WR or an elite TE and then pick up a near-elite QB with massive upside a round or two later.