For the past four seasons, Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen has been the best quarterback in fantasy football.
Entering the 2024 season with the weakest supporting cast of his career, is there any reason for fantasy managers to be reluctant to pay Allen’s expensive price tag in drafts?
Josh Allen’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Production at the QB position is the most predictable and consistent from year to year. The longer the sample size we have on a player’s performance, the more confident we can be in predicting what he will do in the upcoming season.
This combination is what makes Allen the best overall player in all of fantasy football.
Of course, this doesn’t mean he should go No. 1 overall, or even in the first round. Opportunity cost matters. Positional value matters. QBs don’t go in the first round for a very good reason.
Purely looking at all players in a vacuum, though, Allen is the best. He averaged 24.2 fantasy points per game last season. That was actually his lowest average over the past four seasons. His ceiling is elite, as is his floor. He’s been the overall QB1 for three of the last four years, and the only year he wasn’t was Jalen Hurts’ superb 2022 season.
There really aren’t enough superlatives to cover Allen as both an NFL QB and a fantasy asset. He’s an elite QB1 who also is his team’s primary goal-line back. That gives him both the highest floor and highest ceiling in fantasy football.
Allen had the second-least-efficient rushing season of his career, but he still recorded 15 touchdowns on the ground. In total, Allen accounted for 44 touchdowns last season. He scored 20+ fantasy points 13 times and had just two games below 16 points all season.
Fantasy managers may be slightly concerned at the loss of Stefon Diggs and the lack of a replacement. I believe Allen will be just fine. Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel are not prime Diggs, but Allen is capable of producing on his own.
We already saw what Allen looks like without Diggs. Just rewatch the second half of the 2023 season. Diggs may as well have not been on the field. Allen was able to remain an elite QB1 while not throwing to Diggs. He can do it again.
There’s no need to really analyze whether Allen is the best quarterback in fantasy — we know he is. The question fantasy managers need answered is at what point in fantasy drafts is it acceptable to take a quarterback?
Allen’s ADP sits at No. 33 overall. That’s actually lower than I expected. I think in many of your home leagues, you will see him go around the 2/3 turn.
There are a lot of really good wide receivers available at that spot. At the same time, Allen is a true difference-maker, and he’s a sure thing. Given how deep WR is and how the early WR movement has made quality running backs available later, Allen is a very viable selection as early as late in the second round.
By no means am I saying you should prioritize Allen or go out of your way to draft him. There are multiple QBs with top-five upside going in the middle rounds that I really like.
If you miss out on Allen or opt to go with a wide receiver or running back, that’s perfectly fine. I just want you to know that if you decide to take Allen in a spot that seems early for a QB, you can do it.