Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has been an elite QB1 for each of the past three years. The only question fantasy managers need answered is whether he should go as the first, second, or third quarterback off the board. What is Allen’s fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Josh Allen’s Fantasy Outlook
After spending his entire football playing career as a poor passer with a sub-60% completion percentage, the Bills acquired Stefon Diggs in 2020, and Allen decided he was going to be one of the best QBs in football.
Last season, Allen averaged 24.2 fantasy points per game. It was his worst season on average and positional finish of the past three years. Yeah. Allen’s been so good that an overall QB3 finish was his “down” year. In 2020 and 2021, Allen was the overall QB1, averaging 25.4 and 24.6 ppg, respectively.
Technically, Allen has now seen his fantasy scoring decline for two straight seasons. Of course, if he’s going to give us 24+ ppg, he’s going to be a top-three fantasy QB, and it doesn’t really matter if that’s 24 or 26 ppg. We’ll take it.
We know what Allen’s ceiling is, and we know he can do it without much help. So, at the risk of being overly negative, let’s focus on the concerns with Allen this season.
First, we have his supporting cast. The Bills have been one of the best offenses in football since 2020. However, they haven’t really done their best to surround Allen with weapons. Look at what the Cincinnati Bengals have done for Joe Burrow or what the Seattle Seahawks are doing for Geno Smith. Allen doesn’t have that. He’s got Diggs, and, well, that’s really it.
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Buffalo’s WR2 is Gabe Davis, who profiles more as a rotational WR3/4 than a guy who should be out there 90% of the snaps. They don’t have a WR3 to speak of. Dawson Knox is a solid tight end, but he’s more replacement-level than anything. Dalton Kincaid could be another weapon, but he’s still a rookie for the 2023 season.
That brings us to the second concern — Allen’s reliance on rushing. Head coach Sean McDermott has made it abundantly clear he knows Allen’s longevity is at risk if he keeps running at the rate he has.
Over his five-year career, Allen has 546 carries for 3,087 yards and 38 touchdowns. It’s not so much the scrambling that’s the issue. Rather, it’s the big hits he takes, especially as he operates as the Bills’ primary goal-line back.
If Buffalo wants Allen to be able to play beyond 32/33, they’ll need to scale back his rushing. However, if that happens, Allen won’t be a top-three fantasy QB.
With that said, Allen is still just 27 years old. When push comes to shove, the Bills remain in their championship window, and their goal is to win games. They may desire to have Allen run less, but their dearth of offensive weapons will likely force their hand.
Lastly, I would be remiss to not address Allen’s elbow injury, which clearly plagued him over the latter portion of the 2022 season. From Weeks 1-9, Allen was the overall QB1, averaging 27.9 ppg. From Weeks 10-18, he was the QB4, averaging 21.0 ppg. Still great. But not elite.
It’s hard not to point to the elbow as the reason. Allen did not get surgery on his partially torn UCL, but fantasy managers shouldn’t really be concerned. NFL players are advised by the best doctors in the world, and those doctors said Allen would make a full recovery with rest and treatment. We have every reason to believe Allen’s elbow will be 100% to start the season, allowing him to return to the guy we saw over the first half.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Allen at His ADP?
Whether you draft Allen will have more to do with your philosophy on drafting quarterbacks early more than anything else. There’s no real debate over the existence of a “big three.” The only thing that changes is the order in which fantasy managers rank them.
Relative to the other quarterbacks, though, Allen sure looks like the value. He’s currently the QB2, No. 22 overall. The guy who was the best quarterback in all of fantasy football from Week 1 of the 2020 season through Week 9 of the 2022 season is suddenly essentially tied for third with Jalen Hurts because an elbow injury caused him to merely be very good for eight weeks instead of elite.
I understand why Patrick Mahomes is the QB1. He’s literally never finished lower than QB6. There’s no chance he fails you, but he still carries that same super-elite upside as the other guys. But he’s my QB3, with Hurts first and Allen second.
My projections have Allen throwing for 4,916 yards, 37.4 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. I also have him running it 110 times for 661 yards and 5.1 touchdowns. He came out averaging 25.3 ppg and as my overall QB1. It’s very close between him and Hurts, but Mahomes is firmly in third for me.
Given that Allen is currently the cheapest of the big three QBs, he’s the one I’m most interested in drafting. I’ve never really been an early-round QB guy, but if the circumstances present themselves, this is the first year in a long time I’m willing to take the certainty of the elite quarterback.