The Buffalo Bills will face the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Conference Championship Game. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding QB Josh Allen.
Is Josh Allen Playing vs. the Chiefs?
Allen was not listed on the injury report this week. Barring any last-minute setbacks, he will play against Kansas City.
We’ll continue to monitor the Bills’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Josh Allen in the AFC Conference Championship Game?
Five times has a QB had four games in a season (playoffs included) with multiple rush touchdowns and 20 pass attempts.
- 2021 Jalen Hurts
- 2022 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Josh Allen
- 2024 Josh Allen
No player has had five such games in a single season and you are crazy if you think that’s not within the range of outcomes for Allen this weekend. After having three games with a 72% completion rate during the regular season, QB1 has shown tremendous maturity this postseason and has hit that mark in both games as his growth continues.
While Buffalo’s success over the Chiefs in these big spots has been limited, Allen hasn’t been the issue. That’s all we care about. In Week 11, he threw 40 passes in addition to running for 55 yards and a score.
I’d take that this week.
In the playoff game last year, we got 51 scoring opportunities (combined pass and rush attempts) and three total touchdowns.
I’d take that.
The Buffalo universe revolves around Allen’s unique skill set and that is what makes him matchup-proof. I could give you all the pro-Chiefs defense numbers in the world (there are a lot of them), but Allen is one of the few professional athletes who can transcend any matchup.
The decision around rostering Allen in a week like this is much more a question as to how to do it. Do you stack him with a receiver? Do you build a roster with two Bills and one Chief?
Allen playing at the peak of his powers can elevate a teammate or two, but it doesn’t have to. We’ve seen him wear the Superman cape at times and handle all of the valuable plays himself.
It’s human nature at this point to put a quarterback with a pass catcher (if not two), but what if you went with a chalky Allen, but didn’t include a teammate? Maybe you get a little cute with an Allen/James Cook build, where you get two potentially popular players, but in a different way than most of the competition.
Given the level of QB play on this slate, I don’t expect the ownership to get out of control on any of them. If you think Allen continues his magical season, I’d lock him into a handful of lineups and experiment with specific builds around him.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Conference Championship Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Josh Allen’s Fantasy Points Projection in the AFC Conference Championship Game
As of Sunday morning, Allen is projected to score 20.4 fantasy points in the Conference Championship Game. This includes 214.7 passing yards, 1.7 passing touchdowns, and 0.7 interceptions. It also includes 5.7 rushing attempts for 31.4 yards and 0.4 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Chiefs' Defense
The Chiefs were a top-10 defense entering Week 18 but saw their ranking tank after the backups flopped against the Broncos.
With the varsity team back for the Divisional Round, Kansas City demonstrated the type of disruptiveness this unit can generate at full strength. Steve Spagnuolo's blitz-heavy game plan overwhelmed the Texans. The Chiefs generated pressure on 73.3% of their blitzes against Houston, the highest by any team to send 15+ blitzes in a game this season.
The only area of concern to emerge from the Divisional Round was the third-down defense. Excluding Week 18, Kansas City allowed its second-highest third-down conversion rate (58.8%) all season. The only higher rate they allowed was to their AFC Championship Game opponent, as the Bills converted 60% of their third downs in Week 11.
After some shaky weeks and midseason questions, the Chiefs appear to be peaking ahead of their eighth straight AFC title game. That's a familiar story and could result in a familiar ending in February as well.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Josh Allen’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.
Conference Championship QB PPR Rankings
1) Josh Allen | BUF (at KC)
2) Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs. WAS)
3) Jayden Daniels | WAS (at PHI)
4) Patrick Mahomes | KC (vs. BUF)
Bills at Chiefs Trends and Insights
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills lost four road games during the regular season — only four Super Bowl champions in the 2000s have done that (2018 Patriots, 2012 Ravens, 2010 Packers, and 2006 Colts).
QB: Five times has a QB had four games in a season (playoffs included) with multiple rush touchdowns and 20 pass attempts.
- 2021 Jalen Hurts
- 2022 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Josh Allen
- 2024 Josh Allen
No player has had five such games in a season.
Offense: The Bills have scored on at least 55% of their possessions six times this season, four of which have come against playoff teams.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to pick up 70% of their third downs. That’s the fourth-highest rate the Bills have allowed in the 2000s and is their highest in a winning effort.
Fantasy: Allen has completed over 72% of his passes in both playoff wins – he had three such games during the regular season.
Betting: Overs are 5-2 in Buffalo’s past seven games, cashing last week by half a point with Baltimore's final touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Christmas Day 2023 was the date of Kansas City’s last home loss – each of their past six Arrowhead games have been decided by a single possession.
QB: Patrick Mahomes has thrown a total of three touchdown passes in his last two Championship games (3.7% of his attempts) after throwing three in each of his first four appearances (8.4%).
Offense: Saturday was the 10th time this season in which the Chiefs scored on at least half of their possessions (five-of-nine against Houston).
Defense: Opponents have picked up at least half of their third downs in four straight games against the Chiefs (Texans: 10-of-17).
Fantasy: In the last two games in which their starters have been extended, the Chiefs have managed to turn 42 carries into just 119 yards (2.83 yards per carry).
Betting: By taking an intentional safety at the end of their win over the Texans, the Chiefs snapped their six-game playoff cover streak.
