There’s seemingly never a dull moment when it comes to the NFL. Even after the games end, fantasy football values still move around. Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen has been both elite and consistent for four consecutive years. Where does his dynasty value stand heading into the 2024 offseason?
Josh Allen’s Dynasty Outlook
There aren’t enough superlatives to truly capture Allen’s greatness in fantasy football. After magically morphing into a proficient passer following his sophomore season, Allen has become an unstoppable fantasy force.
Josh Allen finished the year with an absurd 15 rushing touchdowns during the regular season.
Is he QB1 in fantasy football drafts going into 2024? 🔥🔥
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— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy) January 25, 2024
Over the past four years, Allen has averaged between 24.2 and 25.4 fantasy points per game. Anything over 22 points per game is truly elite.
Allen has been a full 2.0 ppg above that mark for four consecutive seasons. He’s finished as the QB1 three times and the QB3 once.
The age-old debate in fantasy football is floor vs. ceiling. Do you want a player who will produce consistently startable numbers but might not give you those massive matchup-winning weeks? Or do you want a player who is going to let you down a bunch but has the potential to blow the doors off a matchup any given week? Somehow, Allen is both.
MORE: Dynasty Consensus Rankings
Including Week 18, Allen finished as a QB1 14 times in 2023. He scored 20+ fantasy points a whopping 13 times. Included in that were three games over 30 and one over 40.
What makes Allen so lethal is his combination of passing and rushing. His passing numbers alone don’t look like a guy who is carrying the ball 100+ times a season. He threw for 4,306 yards and 29 touchdowns. Those are great numbers even if he did nothing on the ground. But on the ground, Allen is on another level.
Allen has always been a force at the goal line. In 2023, he took it to another level, rushing for a whopping 15 touchdowns.
Ironically, his rushing volume and efficiency declined a bit last season. But that doesn’t matter when he’s his team’s primary goal-line option. The Bills scored 51 touchdowns in 2023, and Allen accounted for 44 of them.
Allen is the best quarterback in fantasy and should be treated as such until proven otherwise.
Jason Katz’s Top 25 QB Rankings
1) Patrick Mahomes | KC
2) Josh Allen | BUF
3) Jalen Hurts | PHI
4) Lamar Jackson | BAL
5) Joe Burrow | CIN
6) C.J. Stroud | HOU
7) Justin Herbert | LAC
8) Dak Prescott | DAL
9) Anthony Richardson | IND
10) Kyler Murray | ARI
11) Brock Purdy | SF
12) Tua Tagovailoa | MIA
13) Trevor Lawrence | JAX
14) Justin Fields | CHI
15) Jordan Love | GB
16) Jared Goff | DET
17) Bryce Young | CAR
18) Kirk Cousins | MIN
19) Matthew Stafford | LAR
20) Deshaun Watson | CLE
21) Will Levis | TEN
22) Geno Smith | SEA
23) Baker Mayfield | TB
24) Aaron Rodgers | NYJ
25) Derek Carr | NO
Should You Trade Allen in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Allen? Our PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trades to make in seconds!
For 2024, I think everyone would agree Allen is a better fantasy quarterback than Patrick Mahomes. That will likely be the case for 2025 as well.
In dynasty, I rarely advocate for caring beyond this year and next year. But with quarterbacks, especially the elite ones, it’s a bit different.
The QB landscape doesn’t shift as frequently as wide receiver, and certainly nowhere near as much as running back. The top quarterbacks have been the same for pretty much the past three years.
Turning 28 years old in May, Allen isn’t exactly close to the end. But history suggests his career is going to end sooner than Mahomes’ will…by a lot.
We’ve never seen a former mobile QB play at a high level beyond the age of 33. Russell Wilson is the best one, and I would hardly classify his play over the past three seasons as quality.
Now, to be fair, we’re talking about something that is not a concern for at least another five years. But when you get a clear QB1 in dynasty, you’re expecting to have that player for a very long time.
I fully expect guys like Mahomes and Justin Herbert to be high QBs for at least another 10 years. C.J. Stroud should be a QB1 for 15 years, while Allen may only have another 5-6 years left. The question you need to ask yourself is how much you care.
I’m certainly not advocating for trading away Allen now based on the likelihood that he’s done in six years rather than 10 or 12. It’s merely something to think about.
Even if your dynasty team is in shambles, requiring a two-year rebuild, Allen is almost certainly still going to be elite when you’re ready to compete. If you have him, in the words of Lil Nas X, I would ride ’til I can’t no more.
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