Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love left many wondering if they had done it again — if this team is really going to have three franchise quarterbacks in succession. Love certainly led an overachieving Packers team in 2023, and his fantasy football managers benefited in a big way.
While the Green and Gold may not have an established WR1, it’s clear that the depth of weapons at Love’s disposal is well above average. He’s going to cost you more than he did last season, but if the growth continues at this rate, he could still prove to be a bargain.
Is waiting for Love the play at the quarterback position as opposed to paying up for a proven elite?
Jordan Love’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
There’s a lot to like in Love’s profile. He was a top-10 quarterback in QB rating, passing yards, passing touchdowns, and rushing yards — not a bad résumé for a player in his first year as a starter with a young receiving corps that saw, potentially, the worst version of each of those pass catchers that we will see for seasons to come.
- Jayden Reed: 4.0 catches per game
- Romeo Doubs: 61.5% catch rate
- Dontayvion Wicks: One score through 15 weeks
- Christian Watson: eight missed games
- Luke Musgrave: six missed games
Is it impossible that we get drastic improvements on all fronts this season?
Didn't realize that there were two fakes from Jordan Love on this play. Second one took out 31. Fake screen has to be one of the most aesthetically appealing plays in football. pic.twitter.com/Ya7q6bSOGA
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) January 22, 2024
Including the playoffs, Love enters 2024 having thrown multiple touchdowns in six straight games. At the end of last season, he was a stable fantasy asset (don’t lose track of the fact that he had seven games with 10+ rushing yards), and his raw passing talent gives him room for tremendous growth.
2023
- Packers: 10th in pass rate over expectation
- Packers: 15th in pass rate
- Packers: 16th in shotgun rate
As Green Bay hands over the keys to its franchise to Love, it stands to reason that all of those rankings trend up sooner than later. In a season in which they didn’t know what they had under center, the Packers ranked seventh in average depth of target, a clear indicator that they’re willing to be aggressive with the growth curve.
From a granular standpoint, the schemes this team cooked up for Love put him in a position to succeed, and I expect the play-calling to only get better with time. If you accept the premise that a team enters every half with a well-thought-out script, then these numbers are illuminating.
- First-quarter stats: seven TD passes and 0 INTs (110 attempts)
- Third-quarter stats: 9.2 yards per pass attempt
For me, those are signals that Green Bay’s coaching staff is capable of putting Love in advantageous spots, something that cannot be overstated. With experience (58.3% completion percentage last season), he’ll get better in quarters two and four, and that development would allow his fantasy stock to truly take off.
I have no concerns about Love himself. My concerns for 2024 are the tier in which he is being drafted.
In the sixth round, quarterbacks 7-10 are being selected. Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, and Love make up that tier. Yet, I have that group divided into subsections as opposed to making it one big tier.
Joe Burrow / Kyler Murray
The Bengals have a pair of elite receivers, while Murray has two pass catchers with elite potential. Burrow’s savviness as a passer is not a question (over 9,000 yards with 69 TD tosses from 2021-22), and Murray’s potential to break fantasy as a rusher (661 rushing yards and eight scores per 17 games over the past four seasons) is unique to only the top of the board at the position.
Dak Prescott / Jordan Love
Prescott has an alpha receiver while Love has the depth at the position, but neither has both. Both have the potential to be elite from the pocket, though neither is as refined as Burrow when healthy. Prescott and Love have some mobility in their profile, but not enough to give them the potential to move into the top tier at the position.
For me, the Prescott/Love profile looks similar to that of Brock Purdy, a signal-caller who, on average, is being drafted two rounds later. For the record, I don’t think Love is a bad option for those waiting to address the position. But if that’s your plan, why spend here?
In one-quarterback leagues, it’s a numbers game. I’d argue that, even without Murray, six QBs could lead the position in fantasy points this season. Once those six are off the board, half of your league has addressed quarterback and will not be looking to invest again until late (if at all).
From there, we have the aforementioned quartet in addition to promising rookies, four high-floor plays (Purdy, Jared Goff, Tua Tagovailoa, and Kirk Cousins), veterans with potential (Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford), and two high-pedigree options at a discount (Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence).
We have ALL of those quarterbacks available for the six teams in your league that don’t currently have a QB. Maybe half of them draft two quarterbacks, meaning there’s going to be plenty of talent available in the last few rounds of your draft, if not on your waiver wire.
Love is better than most of the signal-callers on that list, but is he worth drafting 6+ rounds ahead of whoever you have at the bottom of the draftable QB tier?
For me, he’s not. I like the potential he has and believe that 2023 was just the start of a nice career, but the depth of the position is going to result in me rarely landing Love.