As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Jordan Addison’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Jordan Addison’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Years from now, plenty will be written about pick No.’s 20-23 in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. It marked the first time four consecutive wideouts were drafted in the opening frame. The Seahawks started the run with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, followed by Quentin Johnston (Chargers), Zay Flowers (Ravens), and finally, Addison (Vikings).
The first three are entering the league in crowded receiver corps. Smith-Njigba must share targets with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Johnston will be grouped with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Flowers has to contend with Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham Jr., and all-world TE Mark Andrews.
Addison might have the clearest Year 1 path to a prominent role, and by extension, meaningful fantasy production. While Justin Jefferson is the clear-cut No. 1, and while T.J. Hockenson will continue to eat up targets as a near-elite tight end — the rest of the receiver corps is thin.
While 2020 fifth-round pick K.J. Osborn has been more than serviceable, he’s not “the answer” after the offseason departure of Adam Thielen. The Vikes needed an immediate replacement to take all or most of Thielen’s 6-7 targets per game — and perhaps more — because Thielen was a declining 32-year-old. Addison is an ascending 21-year-old with plenty of room to grow.
Although his slight frame and the presence of Jefferson might cap his ultimate ceiling, he could easily be a 70-1,050-5 option in a plus aerial attack, especially if Kirk Cousins builds off of his career-high pass attempts from 2022.
There aren’t any No. 4 or No. 5 WRs waiting to move up. Jalen Reagor and Jalen Nailor aren’t looming. Neither is anyone else. During the Cousins era, Minnesota has had one of the most top-heavy passing games in the NFL. That should continue this season, to Addison’s benefit.
As with most rookies, there are risks. How quickly will he acclimate at the professional level? Will his size limit his ability to win battles against tight coverage? Although he’s pretty fast, he’s not blessed with blazing speed, running a 4.49 40-yard dash at the Combine.
The opportunity is there. Minnesota invested big in him, and they plan to use him early and often. The nearly guaranteed volume will keep him fantasy-relevant.
The biggest question is how quickly he can separate from Osborn and become a true top-three receiver alongside Jefferson and Hockenson. I’m betting on sooner rather than later.
Should You Draft Jordan Addison This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Addison with an ADP of WR37. Our PFN Consensus Rankings place him at WR38. For context, last year’s WR39 was George Pickens, who compiled a 52-801-4 receiving line. So yes, that’s entirely doable for Addison. And in fact, I believe that’s more his floor than his ceiling.
As alluded to above, Addison could easily eclipse 1,000 yards, thanks to a quarterback who consistently throws for 4,000+ yards and an offense that’s consolidated around only a handful of steady producers.
Not all No. 2 WRs are built the same. Some are in muddled receiving corps. Others are catching balls thrown by bottom-tier QBs.
Addison’s a fantasy bargain not only because of his talent but because of where he landed. He’s a must-buy at his current market price.