Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison finds himself in quite the ideal situation to hit the ground running as a rookie. As the Adam Thielen replacement, can Addison make an instant impact? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Jordan Addison’s Fantasy Outlook
It’s always tricky trying to value rookie wide receivers in redraft. Unless we’re talking about truly ca n’t-miss prospects like Ja’Marr Chase, oftentimes we get good, not great, production that is never as useful as fantasy managers think it will be.
The Vikings spent a late-first-round pick on Addison in this year’s NFL Draft. At 5’11”, 173 pounds, Addison projects as a traditional slot receiver. His 2021 season at Pitt was truly elite, with 100 catches for 1,593 yards and 17 touchdowns, which is indicative of his ceiling as an NFL player.
The concern with Addison, aside from his size, is his underwhelming athletic measurables. For a guy we’re hoping is a shifty slot man, Addison’s speed score was in the 19th percentile. He also has average agility and below-average burst.
Fortunately, we’ve seen Addison produce at a high level. So, it would be unwise to write him off based purely on his athleticism.
Additionally, we have an ideal landing spot in Minnesota. For years, the Vikings have been an extremely consolidated offense. They run things through their RB1 and top two wide receivers.
Addison will have every opportunity to be the other part of their next great wide receiver duo along with Justin Jefferson.
The Vikings cut Thielen earlier this year. Entering his age-33 season, the writing was on the wall for one of the greatest UDFA wide receivers of all time. Leaving with Thielen was also his 17% target share.
While the Vikings do have T.J. Hockenson as the potential de facto WR2, and a returning K.J. Osborn, Addison’s production profile and draft capital suggest he will have every opportunity to be second in the target hierarchy. The question, of course, is whether he can reach that level of performance as a rookie.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Addison at His ADP?
Addison may be small and not overly athletic, but this is the new breed of NFL wide receiver. DeVonta Smith was an outlier. Since entering the league, we’ve seen several more players who look more like him than your classic outside Dez Bryant-style wide receiver. Addison is one of several in this year’s rookie class.
On the Vikings, Addison will benefit from an immediate starting role on an offense that threw 63% of the time in a neutral game script last season. The Vikings also averaged 27.2 seconds per snap, the sixth-fastest pace of place in neutral game script.
There is a lot of passing volume on this team, and cutting ties with Dalvin Cook only further cements the Vikings’ commitment to throwing the ball.
MORE: 2023 Dynasty Rookie WR Rankings
Addison’s ADP sits at WR38, No. 97 overall. Initially, I was extremely bullish on Addison and expected to target him aggressively. My projections threw a bit of cold water on that.
I have Addison projected for 76 catches for 845 yards and 3.4 touchdowns. That came out to 11.0 PPR fantasy points per game and a WR40 finish.
I still have Addison ranked as my WR33 because there is lots of room for him to exceed my projections. However, there’s also the scenario where Osborn is more involved, and Hockenson firmly entrenches himself as the second target on the team.
All of this is to say Addison is far from a sure thing, and his range of outcomes is a bit wider than I initially anticipated. I’m still very much on board with drafting Addison around his ADP, but I would stop short of calling him a must-draft prospect.