Minnesota Vikings WR Jordan Addison turned heads in his rookie season, as the USC product scored 10 times and routinely made highlight plays. As strong as his first impression at the professional level was, the situation around Addison will make projecting him difficult.
Gone is the stability under center that Kirk Cousins provided, and a fully healthy Justin Jefferson could result in a decline in volume (4.1 catches per game). Is the juice worth the squeeze entering 2024, or are you better off chasing fantasy football upside elsewhere at a deep receiver position?
Jordan Addison’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Addison showed the pedigree that earned him first-round draft capital last season. He scored seven times in his first eight games and was able to earn at least five targets in four of five games before Jefferson went down with an injury.
Jordan Addison in his rookie season:
🟣 70 Receptions
🟣 911 Receiving Yards
🟣 10 TouchdownsWhat is in store for year 2? 🤔
pic.twitter.com/7iBnjrxUmH— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) May 23, 2024
There’s a lot to like in Addison’s profile, and for dynasty fantasy football managers, he’s a buy. For 2024, however, I’m concerned — even at his current seventh-round ADP.
Recent WR2s With Round 1 Rookie QBs
- Bryce Young: DJ Chark produced 35-525-5 in 15 games
- C.J. Stroud: Tank Dell produced 47-709-7 in 11 games
- Kenny Pickett: George Pickens produced 52-801-4 in 17 games
- Trevor Lawrence: Laviska Shenault Jr. produced 63-619-0 in 16 games
- Justin Fields: Allen Robinson II produced 38-410-1 in 12 games
- Mac Jones: Kendrick Bourne produced 55-800-5 in 17 games
Sam Darnold (sub-60% completion rate for his career with nearly as many touchdown passes as interceptions) might be the Week 1 starter in Minnesota. While his range of outcomes is tighter than that of a rookie, the upside is low, to say the least.
Addison’s final stat line was impressive last season, but his consistency wasn’t. He had six games with under 40 receiving yards. If Minnesota’s offense takes a step back as they adjust under center, there aren’t going to be nearly as many scoring opportunities for Addison to capitalize on and bail out an otherwise underwhelming fantasy afternoon.
This is, of course, baked into his price. Addison is being drafted behind veterans like Diontae Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins but in the same round as upside options in potent offenses like Xavier Worthy and Christian Watson.
You’d have a tough time selling me on Addison over any of those players. At the end of the day, I like the talent/situation role of the four listed receivers more than Addison in the middle rounds.
Truth be told, the neighborhood in which Addison is being drafted is a spot where I tend to draft a running back. Zamir White (safe role), James Conner (volume in an offense with upside), and Javonte Williams (raw talent with health concerns) all have my attention around this point in the draft, especially if Addison is atop my remaining WR ranks.
If you’re an Addison truther, I’d encourage you to let him go in the draft and potentially buy low in mid-October. The Vikings have a few tough matchups before their Week 6 bye. If he’s struggling, the asking price could dip in a big way.
At the very least, Minnesota’s offense should improve with time, and buying low on Addison may be a way to invest in that trajectory without burning much.
Jordan Addison’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game:Â 9.8
- Receptions:Â 53
- Receiving Yards:Â 686
- Receiving TDs:Â 7.5
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.